GALLUP: Bush 54% Kerry 40% - the race is over.

[riverflush]

Actually it's not even close to being over....I just posted that way to highlight something:

Tomorrow a new Gallup poll will be released showing Bush ahead by 14 points.

My point: these polls are meaningless right now.

There has been a definitive shift towards Bush within the electorate - when a plurality of polls show him ahead and on the upswing. That said, anybody who comes on here with their 2 polls showing Kerry actually ahead and saying "This baby is a dead heat, all you guys are lying, etc. etc." and making grand statements is really kidding themselves.

Don't try to use today's poll to win any arguments, cuz tomorrow I'll have one showing the opposite.

[wacki]

agreed, but it's still fun to watch.

[riverflush]

Don't get me wrong wacki...I enjoy following them as well.

I'm as much a political science junkie as the next guy on here.

I just get a kick out of needling folks who use the latest polls to build their soapbox.

[GWB]

This obsession with polls is overdone. we haven't even had the debates yet. Although, if I am ahead enough, maybe I can get them cancelled, ya think?

We should ignore my 14% lead in Gallup.

Here's an interesting article (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=696&e=6&u=/ap/20040917/ap_on_el_pr/battleground_poaching) about the focus on the Presidential race hurting local GOP candidates.

I want BIG coattails. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
This obsession with polls is overdone. we haven't even had the debates yet. Although, if I am ahead enough, maybe I can get them cancelled, ya think?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with polls is they don't call people on thier cell phones. All those voter without land lines (like me) are not getting polled. Huge blocks of conservatives are being missed.

Stu

[GWB]

From the Gallup analysis of the poll: (http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13066)

Bush's Lead Over Kerry Among Registered Voters
From Late August Until Mid-September
(Percentage Lead for Bush)


Age of Voter


............... 18-49 50-64 65+
Aug 23-25 .....-1 ... 7 ...-5
Sep 3-5 ........ 0.... 1 ... 2
Sep 13-15 .... 13 ... 1 ... 1
NET CHANGE +14 .. -6 .. +6



Note: A positive number indicates Bush leads Kerry; a negative number indicates Kerry leads Bush.


The other two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.

In the oldest age group (65+), Bush trailed Kerry by five points three weeks ago (50% to Kerry to 45% for Bush), but now Bush has a one-point advantage (48% to 47%).

Bush gained about equally among men (his lead is up nine points) and women (up eight points). Three weeks ago, Bush had a 6-point advantage among men (51% to 45%), while today that advantage is 15 points (56% to 41%). Similarly, Bush trailed Kerry by seven points among women three weeks ago (51% for Kerry to 44% for Bush), but Bush is up by one point now (49% to 48%).

[GWB]

Lets be sure to ignore this Pennsylvania poll (http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5qpollsep17,0,5416509.story?coll=all-newslocal-hed) too. PA is the biggest Gore-won state still in play - it would be fatal to Kerry to lose it.

[Matty]

Gallup's Chairman is donating to Republicans:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/16/212615/645

Gallup polls this year are the outliers too often to be chance:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/17/03529/1649#readmore

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Gallup's Chairman is donating to Republicans:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/16/212615/645


[/ QUOTE ]

This is truly pathetic. The Gallup company has an outstanding reputation built over decades of work. The fact that the Chairman has donated money to the Republicans is irrelevent.

John Zogby is a sefl-acknowledge Democrat. But, no reasonable person would think he's intentionally making his poll results look pro-Democratic even though they have been routinely the best case scenario for Kerry.

Grey, it seems whenever you don't like a poll result, you simply try to claim that the pollster is biased towards the Republicans. You did this the other day when you claimed a link to an Electoral College map showing Bush ahead was done by a pro-Bush person even though the person acknowledges on the site that he supports Kerry.

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
John Zogby is a sefl-acknowledge Democrat. But, no reasonable person would think he's intentionally making his poll results look pro-Democratic even though they have been routinely the best case scenario for Kerry.

[/ QUOTE ]Since you're so great at noticing trends in my posting, did you notice the post where I warned someone against trusting Zogby polls since they're too pro-Kerry?[ QUOTE ]

Grey, it seems whenever you don't like a poll result, you simply try to claim that the pollster is biased towards the Republicans. You did this the other day when you claimed a link to an Electoral College map showing Bush ahead was done by a pro-Bush person even though the person acknowledges on the site that he supports Kerry.

[/ QUOTE ]I fully explained why I said what I did, and provided three sources for electoral maps which were more Kerry-friendly than the first one. Did you not read my explanation?

Here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=exchange&Number=1031333&Fo rum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main =1029538&Search=true&where=&Name=9862&daterange=&n ewerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev= #Post1031333) is a link to it. Quit pretending that my arguments are one-dimensional. It's dishonest.

[Matty]

It turns out Gallup has made huge erros in their poll weighting.

If people turn out like they did in 2000, (40.3 D, 36.5 R, 23.2 I/O), then the race is tied at 48 according to the internals of Gallup's poll (Bush 95-4 among Rs, Kerry 85-11 among Ds, Kerry 51-41 among I/O's).

What's worse is they've been using this skewed party weighting this entire election season. That's why they're consistently the most pro-Bush poll. They're saying the turnout is going to be GOP: 40, Dem 33, and I/O: 28.

Let's look at the last three elections:

1992: 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race)
1996: 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents
2000: 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents

So, Republican turnout is going to climb an unprecendented 14% this year, while Democratic turnout is going to drop an unprecendented 15%? I think not. The weighting of that poll is bullshit. Especially considering there is no powerful third-party candidate like in '92. I mean, look at how much more money Kerry and other anti-Bush groups have raised than Gore did. Democratic Presidential Candidates have raised $470 million (http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/stats.asp?cycle=2004) this year. That does not include 527s. But no, we're not going to turn out to vote ...

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]


The problem with polls is they don't call people on thier cell phones. All those voter without land lines (like me) are not getting polled. Huge blocks of conservatives are being missed.

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think you can say cell phone users are primarily conservative. I think what you can say is they are primarily younger. And younger doesn't trend conservative. It trends elsewhere.