02-06-2002, 12:19 AM
Sklansky, Billy Joel, Jimi Hendrix and a guy formerly known as Jack !
David Sklansky wrote:
* since you realized Joe should in fact play Billy. However some seemed to think that its better to play Billy as long as you have a better chance to beat him than you do beating Frank. That's wrong. In order for it to be right to play Billy first your chances of beating him must be greater than what? *
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Answer buy a guy formerly known as Jack:
If you only play Frank you lose:
0.2*2000-1000= -600.
If you play Billy and then Frank you lose: (as a function of p)
p*0.2*2000 - (1-p)*1000 + p*0.8*0 = 1400*p-1000 (= -600)
Solving for p: p= 4/14= 28.57 %
But of course you all know that !
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Jimi Hendrix: Hey Joe - where are you going with that gun in your hand ?
David Sklansky wrote:
* since you realized Joe should in fact play Billy. However some seemed to think that its better to play Billy as long as you have a better chance to beat him than you do beating Frank. That's wrong. In order for it to be right to play Billy first your chances of beating him must be greater than what? *
---
Answer buy a guy formerly known as Jack:
If you only play Frank you lose:
0.2*2000-1000= -600.
If you play Billy and then Frank you lose: (as a function of p)
p*0.2*2000 - (1-p)*1000 + p*0.8*0 = 1400*p-1000 (= -600)
Solving for p: p= 4/14= 28.57 %
But of course you all know that !
---
Jimi Hendrix: Hey Joe - where are you going with that gun in your hand ?