Cracked Aces-settle this dispute

Tuesday afternoons at Canterbury Card Club they run a special promotion where they give $75 to anyone who gets pocket aces cracked. I am of the opinion that if, I am lucky enough to get aces on Tuesday afternoon, that I do not raise them pre-flop but bet them the rest of the way as I would on any other day. The other school of thought is to never bet them and just call everyone down.


I play 3-6, can anyone give me a grasp on long term expectation on not betting versus betting your aces on Tuesdays?

The maximum expectation for is for the everyone at the table to agree the if anyone get pocket aces then they announce it and everybody just checks it down and splits the $75. This maximizes the chance of the casino getting stuck for $75 and minimizes the rake.

No no no no no.


Think of it this way.


YOU ARE FREEROLLING with AA. If you lose, you get all your bets back plus a few more. If you win, you just won a big ol' pot. The more money you get in there, the closer you are to a total free roll. If you can get 12 big bets in the pot, you win automatically. You cannot be drawn out on (except for the bets over 12).


There's also all those times that AA will hold up yet you didn't get max value for it, which is like throwing away money.


You could do a literal EV calculation somewhat along the lines of:


Not raising with AA will win an average pot of S size if AA holds up, and will win $75 if it loses. AA wins x% (adjust for game conditions, so this is just an estimate) and loses 100-x% (y%). Therefore, on average .x*S + .y*75/2 chips every time you are dealt AA on Tuesdays and you don't raise.


Do this calculation for the average pot size AA wins when it holds up after you've been betting and raising (which will also raise the value of x%), and you've got your two numbers to compare.


I'm quite sure the favorable number is the one where you bet and raise with AA. The value of x% (AA winning percentage) without raising may be higher than you think because there will be times that other players have a hand they want to bet and raise.


natedogg

my gut feel tells me you will make more in the long run if you forget the bonus and play normal


then if you do get cracked, thats OK because the bonus offsets your loss on that hand

Not certain, but think there must be a better strategy here to maximize your total dollars.


What if you raise pre-flop and everyone else folds? You don't win any money, and you have no shot at winning $75 bonus.


It seems to me that you want to keep everyone in and win a big pot...or get beaten and get your money back.


It is an interesting question.


toro

it seems a good strategy would be to play them like other pocket pairs... limp preflop to get action behind, look to flop a set and then play it hard. otherwise, you might as well have somebody else play your hand for you anyway. maybe throw in a raise or two, but don't be as afraid to build as big of a pot as you can because you will either win the pot or win $75 so keep building the pot. if you are beaten obviously, then you should just check and call to the river, and make your contribution to the pot minimal.

Do you have to show it down? In a fairly aggressive game trying to lose with aces can get expensive. But since the average profit with AA in a full table 3-6 game is around $20-24, so you generally want them cracked. When slowing down won't discernably change your chance of losing, you should play normally (e.g., you flop a set, or you're heads-up with an aggressive opponent who is probably on a draw). Accordingly, you should tend to limp and call before the flop, and then take it from there.