KK hand, river brings fourth spade...

[chaz64]

And no, you don't have a spade.

Paradise Poker 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero...?

Final Pot: 6 BB

Check, or bet?

[zram21]

I would bet this river every time.

[easypete]

I would check behind here.

You've shown aggression the whole way, and SB stays in.

There's a whole bunch of hands that beat you.

9*39 = 351 (non-spade starting hands remaining)
AA (non-spade) = C(3,2) = 6
QQ = C(3,2) = 6
77 = C(3,2) = 6
JJ = C(3,2) = 6

375 starting hands that beat you here / C(45,2) = .38

38% of random hands beat you...

check behind.

[davelin]

If 38% of random hands beats him, which means he beats 62% of hands, doesn't that mean he should bet the river for value?

[chaz64]

I thought if he had a Q or 2 he would show more aggresion. I figured he had a medium/small PP or a spade. A hand with a spade is more likely, so I checked.

He had a spade.

[GrunchCan]

Yes, but the opponent didn't have a random hand. He had a hand that was worth at least calling 1 SB on the flop, and 1 BB on the turn. Maybe 75% of the time when I see this scenario come up, the opponent was calling down with 1PR with a flush draw.

Check behind.