Kerry 48, Bush 47

[Matty]

I'm really surprised to see so many people on this site (unlike all the other sites I visit) write Kerry off so quickly. I think I read one poster here actually say that Democrats are all but conceding this election. I guess poker ability doesn't have that strong of a correlation to political knowledge.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree% 5Ffeature

Looks like you'll have to copy and paste the link.

[Dynasty]

Here's a link (http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree% 5Ffeature) to that article in the first post.

Other national polls.

Newsweek: Bush 49, Kerry 43
Time: Bush 52, Kerry 51
Ap/Ipsos: Bush 51, Kerry 46
Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 42
ABC/WP: Bush 52, Kerry 43
Fox News: Bush 47, Kerry 43
CBS News: Bush 49, Kerry 42
Rasmussen: Bush 47, Kerry 46

The Electoral College Map (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) keeps getting worse and worse for Kerry. He's losing ground in all battleground states. In these four states, Kerry is falling fast. All four states were won by Gore in 2000.

New Jersey: Bush 49, Kerry 45 (Survey USA)
Illinois: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Survey USA)
Minnesota: Bush 45, Kerry 45 (CNN/Gallup/USA Today)
Pennsylvania: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (ABC News)

[Cubswin]

*step up on soapbox*

I cant get your link to work but i assume the article states that Kerry has a 48 to 47 percent lead in the popular vote. This sort of information is completely useless. When are these polling organizations and news outlets going to start showing a fundamental understanding of our electoral system? Im not writting Kerry off by any means but im starting to write off the news outlets and pollsters that spew out this useless data.

*step down from soapbox*

cubs

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
Other national polls.

Newsweek: Bush 49, Kerry 43
Time: Bush 52, Kerry 51
Ap/Ipsos: Bush 51, Kerry 46
Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 42
ABC/WP: Bush 52, Kerry 43
Fox News: Bush 47, Kerry 43
CBS News: Bush 49, Kerry 42
Rasmussen: Bush 47, Kerry 46

[/ QUOTE ]

USELESS USELESS USELESS

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
Illinois: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Survey USA)

[/ QUOTE ]

They must have forgot to poll in Chicago

[Matty]

I should note that the poll I linked is the most recent national poll.

The electoral map you link to is done by a pro-Bush person, and it does not match up with other electoral maps I've seen.

www.mydd.com (http://www.mydd.com) has a good one, and www.rasmussenreports.com (http://www.rasmussenreports.com) has the electoral vote very close too, although their last update was on the 6th.

It doesn't "keep getting worse and worse" for Kerry. Bush had his bounce, and now Kerry is coming back from it. This includes battleground states where Kerry is strong. The electoral vote favors Kerry moreso than national polls do. This is because Bush has very strong support in the red states, and Kerry's support in the blue states isn't as strong. But he (Kerry) is stronger among independents by about a 3-2 margin.

When Bush was ahead by 8 points nationally he was barely winning the electoral vote. Now when it's getting back to a statistical tie, that has to be seen as favoring Kerry. I anxiously await electoral map updates.

Combine this with the fact that tied elections (as far as pre-election polls go) tend to break for the challenger, and independents tend to break for the challenger as well, and I say Kerry is in good position.

Now let's bring on the debates.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
The electoral map you link to is done by a pro-Bush person, and it does not match up with other electoral maps I've seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be factual in what you post. The person who updates that site daily has explicity said he is pro-Kerry. But, that's irrelevent. He uses the most recent state polls from reliable pollsters to create the map. You can move you cursor over the map to see where he's getting his data today.

Florida: Survey USA, 9/14
Pennsylvania: Rasmussen, 9/13
Maine: Zogby, 9/9

Here (http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.html) is where the webmaster says he is a Kerry supporter.

[ QUOTE ]
I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush).

[/ QUOTE ]

I've monitored this website for about a month now and the guy has been completely non-partisan in how he presents the Electoral College map. It's an excellent site.

[daryn]

this is what it comes down to...........



I WILL BET YOU $1,000 RIGHT NOW THAT BUSH WILL WIN.



do you accept?


of course not, you'd be CRAZY.

[riverflush]

TradeSports.com....

Bush trading at 67.0 (+3.5 for the day) $67 to close $100
Kerry trading at 32.0 (-4.5 for the day) $32 to close $100

This is 2004 high for Bush and low for Kerry.

Ignore the national shift to Bush at your own risk. I believe you're letting your pro-Kerry wishful thinking color your perception of an ACTUAL, REAL shift in the electorate - a real political science trend.

I'm following this thing more from a poli-sci perspective than a partisan perspective (although I'm a pro-capitalism Libertarian, so I do have biases)...and this is one of the most significant shifts 45 days out of an election in the past 30 years.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]

Time: Bush 52, Kerry 51


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

[El Barto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Time: Bush 52, Kerry 51


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember, they double count people in Florida... 103% seems reasonable to me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[anatta]

Some of the more recent polls (IBD, Harris) show the race tightening. However, Rasmussen today showed Bush up by five after being tight for the last few days.

Bush's poll numbers have always had some tremendous spikes, followed by slow downturns. After the 9-11 of course was his greatest spike, after start of war, another spike, capture of Saddaam, again, and now his convention spike. A month and a half is long enough time for Bush's numbers to fade, especially with the debates.

The CBS memo is really bad for Kerry, this should fade. On the other hand, senior intelligence officials have just reported that Iraq situation is quite likely to deteriorate into a civil war. This contradicts Bush's statement that "we are making progress on the ground". How Bush has any credibility on Iraq situation is beyond me. Even Republicans are saying outright the obvious, the post war planning was horrible.

[tanda]

Harris is not the most recent poll as you claim below.

As another poster mentions, the Rasmussen tracking poll released today shows a gain for GWB.

Also, the fact that a Kerry supporter is excited about just one poll that has Kerry up by a mere point shows the state of the Kerry campaign.

Also, the electoral maps are running worse for Kerry than the national polls lately. He is losing ground in all competitve and semi-competitive states. This may be a lag in the state polls catching up with the national polls.

There is not one battleground state in which Kerry has gained in the last month.

As Dynasty mentions, the electoral vote site that you claim is run by a Republican is actually run by a Democrat and, regardless, merely accurately restates third-party polls. So alas, no way to blame the Republicans for Kerry's poor showing there. Nice try.

[Wake up CALL]

Where do you guys come from? Rejects from Kerry's campaign headquarters or former advisors of Saddam Hussein like the ones who kept telling him, "Do not worry Saddam, we are defeating the Americans on all fronts."

You intentionally post misinformation just like Dan Rather wannabes and then continue to defend an undefensible position with both misleading statements and untruths. Who are you trying to fool? Yourselves?

[riverflush]

CNBC just did a segment on Bush/Kerry and the markets (2:50PM EST). They discussed the poll numbers, and Ron Insana showed a graphic that has the S+P 500 up 6% since the end of the GOP Convention. They had a discussion about whether the market is rallying slightly ahead of a prospective Bush win.

But the best part for me was that they ended the segment with a graphic and discussion of the TradeSports.com futures market....with the exact stats that I posted about a little while ago. They showed both the current trades (bid/ask) on TradeSports, then went to a graphic that showed GWB's numbers over the last 18 months.

They do this just about every day - or every other day, so if you're a CNBC watcher (during the day), it'll show up again.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you guys come from? Rejects from Kerry's campaign headquarters or former advisors of Saddam Hussein like the ones who kept telling him, "Do not worry Saddam, we are defeating the Americans on all fronts."

You intentionally post misinformation just like Dan Rather wannabes and then continue to defend an undefensible position with both misleading statements and untruths. Who are you trying to fool? Yourselves?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=world&cat=iraq

U.S. Intelligence Offers Gloomy Outlook for Iraq

2 hours, 27 minutes ago Add Top Stories - Reuters to My Yahoo!


By Tabassum Zakaria

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. intelligence report prepared for President Bush (news - web sites) in July offered a gloomy outlook for Iraq (news - web sites) through the end of 2005, with the worst scenario being a deterioration into civil war, government officials said on Thursday.


Reuters Photo




Latest headlines:
· Iraq Warfare Put U.S. Troops Under Growing Stress-Study
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AFP - 45 minutes ago
Special Coverage





The alarming possible future in Iraq as outlined in the classified National Intelligence Estimate is in line with the view of many analysts and members of Congress, and the Bush administration has slowly begun to shift away from an optimistic tenor to a more realistic one.


As recently as Sept. 10, Bush said Iraqi national elections "will be held in January." On Thursday, he said only that "national elections are scheduled for January" and noted "ongoing acts of violence" in Iraq.


Still, he insisted to supporters in St. Cloud, Minnesota: "This country is headed toward democracy."


The National Intelligence Estimate, which is a compilation of views from various intelligence agencies, predicted three scenarios, from a tenuous stability to political fragmentation to the most negative assessment of civil war, officials said.


"There doesn't seem to be much optimism," one official said.


Another official added, "It's a difficult environment, a challenging environment."


The assessment is based on the threat from an Iraqi insurgency that has been growing bolder in its attacks on Iraqis and American troops. On Thursday, gunmen snatched two Americans and a Briton from a Baghdad house.


White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the National Intelligence Estimate came from the CIA (news - web sites) and said it was up to policy-makers to address the challenges outlined.


However, he added, "The Iraqi people are proving that those scenarios are wrong by the progress that they are making to build a better future."


WORSENING SECURITY


The report was initiated under former CIA Director George Tenet, who stepped down in July. The conclusions were reached before the recent worsening of Iraq's security situation.


Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) has been harshly critical of Bush's decision to take the United States into war in Iraq.


"It's time for him to start explaining what he's doing to stabilize the situation on the ground in Iraq. His wrong Iraq policies have taken America in the wrong direction and it's time for him to come clean with the public about what's going on," said a Kerry campaign spokesman, Phil Singer.


A new television ad by a Kerry-supporting organization, Moveon.org, included the line: "George Bush (news - web sites) got us into this quagmire. It will take a new president to get us out."


U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan (news - web sites), in a report to the Security Council last week, said the persistent violence in Iraq would make it difficult to hold elections in January.


A previous National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in October 2002 has been highly criticized for its assessments that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, when no large stockpiles have been found since the U.S. invasion in March 2003.





The 2002 report was a key piece of intelligence used by the Bush administration in making its case for going to war. It was later criticized for not taking into account dissenting views from some intelligence agencies about the status of Iraq's banned weapons programs.

National Intelligence Estimates are produced by the National Intelligence Council, which reports to the CIA director. (Additional reporting by Steve Holland and Caren Bohan)

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
Harris is not the most recent poll as you claim below.

[/ QUOTE ]Look at the time of my post.

I was wrong about the electoral site being run by a Republican- I had it mixed up with another electoral site (here (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html)) that I was looking at on another browser. However, my point that other electoral maps show a very close race still stands. Electoral maps do lag behind national polls, and Kerry is definitely coming back. Not to mention that electoral votes can shift dramatically with just a a small national poll shift.

When the race was tied nationally, Kerry was ahead in every single electoral map- and in some of them by a large margin. If Bush, a person who everyone has already formed a solid opinion of, can come back from that- then how in the blue hell can the people on these boards write Kerry off?

You cite the Vegas odds? Correct me if I'm mistaken, but I believe Vegas was picking the Lakers by a hefty margin over the Pistons even after the Pistons manhandled them for the first game or two.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the more recent polls (IBD, Harris) show the race tightening. However, Rasmussen today showed Bush up by five after being tight for the last few days.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Pew poll that just came out today shows the race tied, 46-46 among registered voters. This same poll had Bush ahead by 12 points a week ago. Bush was ahead in this poll among likely voters by 15 points, now he is ahead by 1 point.

SO THE MOST RECENT 3 POLLS SHOW THE RACE IS TIED. Rasmussen still good news for Bush today.