Pushing with then Folding KK with an A on Board

[sthief09]

standard?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds, CO calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 12.16 BB, between CO and UTG+1.</font>

[jrobb83]

I play it the same way.

[MAxx]

while i wouldnt call this line standard, i think it should be. i would honestly play it the same way up until the river and then sometimes piss away another bb, which I think is foolish.

IMO well played

[Redeye]

This is the kind of situation that I think I've really struggled with trying to improve my game. With no one calling inbetween UTG+1 and you, your getting 11:1 on the call so you need to be correct on this fold more than 90% of the time, right? I think I might call the river in this spot, anyone think thats terrible?

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the kind of situation that I think I've really struggled with trying to improve my game. With no one calling inbetween UTG+1 and you, your getting 11:1 on the call so you need to be correct on this fold more than 90% of the time, right? I think I might call the river in this spot, anyone think thats terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would I say terrible- no.

However - I would ask myself, what do I think UTG is leading with on the river (and also consider that other people get to act behind you- but not quite as important). I dont think he is leading into the rest of us with a busted flush draw. Combine that with the fact that other people have been calling all the way with the A on board... I really do not think my KK is good often enough here to call. Someone else could have the J as well, but I am more concerned that he does. With these things present, I dont think my KK is good at all.

I could be grossly wrong though, this just represents my view.

[sthief09]

this is exactly what I was thinking

[sthief09]

I can't seem to do anything right lately, so I just wanted to make sure folding wasn't bad. some of you said call, but I still don't think I'm ahead often enough.


Results:
UTG+1 has Tc 5d (two pair, jacks and fives).
CO has Ts 6s (two pair, jacks and sixes).
Outcome: CO wins 12.16 BB. </font>

[pistol78]

I had a similar hand a while back only I had QQ and the Ace came on the river, villain bet and I folded. He then showed me TT. Lately, especially on party, I have noticed players make this type of play. (Board pairs and they lead) more times than not they do not have what they are representing.Of course not ALL of them do this but think about it, YOu have shown strength throughout the entire hand, If he had a J would he not wait for you to bet so he can raise? Furthermore, what type of a J hand would he have to call a flop bet? I can understand the dillema you are in becasue even if he does not have a J he or the other player might have an A. I think you should have called. If he did not bet would you have bet or checked? You probably would have bet right? So why not call a bet here.

[Joe826]

I think most players go for a check/raise in this situation. A bet-out on a scare card like this at 3/6 screams busted draw to me, but maybe that's just cuz i saw the results /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

IMO the toughest part about this river decision is the two players who act after you. If it's heads-up, I call in this situation all the time. If you on the button instead and the action went bet, fold, fold, you would call right?

[sthief09]

yeah and it's not even close. I figure no one's dumb enough to bet into 3 people on that board, with crap, but he was!

[Joe826]

i had a hand like that where i folded the winner on the river today too. it always makes me physically sick for a bit when it's a good sized pot. fortunately it doesn't happen that often, or atleast that i'm aware of heh.

[sthief09]

I was rooting for everyone to fold. I'd rather assume I'm right than know I was wrong. oh well, I still think I did the right thing, and even if I didn't, I really only technically lost 1 or 2 BB.

[daveymck]

[ QUOTE ]
I was rooting for everyone to fold. I'd rather assume I'm right than know I was wrong. oh well, I still think I did the right thing, and even if I didn't, I really only technically lost 1 or 2 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont understand the play, if you are planning on folding to a bet on the river why bet the turn? Noone has showed any agression back at you so for one bet on the river in a big pot you have to call, I hate the Jack more than the A, but the draws have not got there.

[daveymck]

Oh and technically you failed to gain 12bb's.

[spamuell]

Oh and technically you failed to gain 12bb's.

If sthief's fold was correct, he technically gained (well, saved, which amounts to the same thing) a fraction of a BB. If it was incorrect, he lost a fraction of a BB. Either way, 12BBs is the size of the pot but the EV of his fold is not even close to being close to that.

[Brian]

Laying down decent hands in big pots for one bet on the River isn't how you win at limit Hold'em.

-Brian

[Trix]

Depends how often you are beat dont you think

[spamuell]

Laying down decent hands in big pots for one bet on the River isn't how you win at limit Hold'em.


Spouting meaningless platitudes at the first sign of a river laydown rather than examining the play of each unusual hand and trying to gain EV and improve your play from this isn't how you win the most at limit hold'em.

[Brian]

Hi spamuell,

I agree, you should examine each situation and come to your own conclusion based on the board, previous action, etc. But, in general, I think that the 2+2 maxim applies: If the pot is large, it's one bet to you, and you have a decent hand to show down, do it. As far as long term EV goes, it probably doesn't matter much either way, though, but trying to make good folds will often cost you IMO.

-Brian

[MAxx]

happy birthday B,

what makes you assume this is one bet on the riva? yes one immediately, but sthiefs' relative position is ill to the river leader. shouldnt that tilt the scale a little bit more, especially if you are already leaning towards the stance that folding is the right play long term EV.

edit: badder grammar

[pistol78]

What happend to the maxim "Better to make a mistake that costs 1 BB rather than the whole pot"?

Also my question never got answered; if UTG +1 checks the river, do you bet?

[Brian]

Hi MAxx,

[ QUOTE ]
happy birthday B,

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. /images/graemlins/wink.gif The big 20 now. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[ QUOTE ]
what makes you assume this is one bet on the riva? yes one immediately, but sthiefs' position is ill to relative better. shouldnt that tilt the scale a little bit more, especially if you are already leaning towards the stance that folding is the right play long term EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just going to cost me one bet on the River. If there's a raise behind me, that's it, I'm done. The check-raise bluff into a bettor and a caller is quite rare indeed. So, I'm getting 11:1 to see if this guys bluffing or is an idiot? Sure, I'll take it.

This isn't one of those situations where the fact that you aren't closing the action/there may be a raise behind you affects your decision. It's just one more bet to you.

Don't fear the guys who have been checking and calling the whole way. Don't even worry about them. Sometimes they'll have you beat while this guy was bluffing, sure. It'll happen. But I'm still making the call getting 11:1.

-Brian

[Brian]

Hi pistol,

This is a good maxim as well and is basically the same thing. If UTG+1 had checked, I think it's close between betting and checking. The pot is large and you will definitely get called by much worse hands, so I would lean towards betting. Any 6, any 5, and I'd venture to say any pocket pair down to 22 will almost always call this River here. Sometimes you'll get called and lose to the Ace, but if I won every value bet I made, I wouldn't be value betting enough now, would I? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

-Brian

[MAxx]

i hear your point... but in addition the potential c/r from the BB, CO acts hehind you as well.

but there is a little difference when closing the action- your one bet gets you a guaranteed showdown. this difference, may be of just a small amount of value......but there is value there. Closing- guaranteed showdown. Sthief's call would have been a maybe showdown.

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
i hear your point... but in addition the potential c/r from the BB,

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, how does this affect my call? All he's been doing is calling the whole way. If he hit and check-raises, great. I haven't lost anything more than if I were calling closing the action. I'm not worried about the CO either. All he's been doing is calling.

I mean, I agree that it's better to be closing the action than not. But I don't think it really makes any difference here.

-Brian

[daveymck]

[ QUOTE ]

Oh and technically you failed to gain 12bb's.

If sthief's fold was correct, he technically gained (well, saved, which amounts to the same thing) a fraction of a BB. If it was incorrect, he lost a fraction of a BB. Either way, 12BBs is the size of the pot but the EV of his fold is not even close to being close to that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was being flippant to be honest change the technically to actually.

This is the type of hand that the call for one more bet standard play is suited to. Yes he will be shown Ax and think that idiot why was he not more agrssive with top pair, yes he will be shown Jx and be rivered lots of times as well, but lots of times he will see people have called down trash and his hand is good, I have no idea how to calculate how many times lots is I am pretty sure it is a lot higher than 1 in 11 if we played this hand over and over against these opponents.

The way this hand played (ie no raise from anyone) makes calling the river a must for 1 bet. If you are not prepared to do that you may as well fold the flop when the Ace hits.

Of course we do not want to be taking second best hands too far as that is probably the most costliest mistake we can make but noone told me I was second best in THIS hand so I want a showdown.

[Nate tha' Great]

Why is everyone talking about calling? Calling is the worst of the three options.

I've been experimenting with raises in these spots more often lately. For whatever reason, I believe that a lot of otherwise loose players have a tough time calling two bets cold on the river. It is almost as though the excitement is gone for them once all the cards are out, and they finally have to confront the embarassing fact that A4 offsuit just isn't all that great a hand. You don't need to have all that high a batting average with these plays in order to make them succesful. They also probably have some advertising benefit; I know that I posted a long rant just yesterday about the unimportance of table image in small stakes online games but this is the sort of play that the fish WILL remember: it LOOKS VERY WILD even though it will often be +EV or reasonably close to it.

I'm not saying that you should raise but I am saying that you should at least consider raising. I'll tell you one thing: UTG will have chit pretty often here.

[daveymck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi MAxx,

[ QUOTE ]
happy birthday B,

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. /images/graemlins/wink.gif The big 20 now. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn is there anyone else on here past puberty? /images/graemlins/wink.gif I am 31 and feel ancient with all these younsters on here.

[MAxx]

So then...... when you are estimating what % of the time your hand is good here, you do not see any reason to consider the estimate of what % of the time the river will be raised behind you.

If you knew that 100% of the time someone would raise behind you, you would certainly not make your play. Obvioulsy if you close the action- its a 0% chance. In Sthief's position this estimate is somewhere between 0 and 100%. I say there is a difference.

So I guess you are saying that you estimate it to be an insigificant chance that it will be raised behind, b/c if there was a strong chance of a raise behind you... your call would be foolish if you would auto fold to a raise behind.

Please note: I do think that the main question, is whether your hand is good often enough here to spit a chip in on the river- but I think position should at least be considered.

[dejableu]

This fold is wrong. A month ago, I would have made the same fold, figuring strength from a previously passive player means he made a really strong hand. But, after reading most of Ed Miller's archived posts, I am convinced of the opposite. This bet, after check-calling all the way, frequently is a bluff. The real deal, as Ed says, typically tries for the craftier check-raise. Thus, raising is the preferred play, and you at least have to call.

Below is a post Ed made in relation to a similar hand where the small blind check-called all the way, then bet out when the board paired KK on the river. He had 22 and got the Hero to throw away rockets.

-----------------------------

You will see a hand like pocket deuces from the SB WAY more often than you might expect (given your arguments thus far). The SB will check and call with some dubious hand, and then decide to bet when a scary card shows up. Sometimes they bet when a non-scary card shows up, but they do it even more often with the scary ones.

It happens PARTICULARLY often at these small and microlimit games. It doesn't make sense, but it happens.

Again, I don't know you, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that you are a smart guy with a background in logical thinking/mathematics who may have played different games before, but who is relatively new to poker. You simply haven't seen enough of the bizarre behavior to really appreciate how common it is.

I'm telling you as a person well-grounded in logic and mathematics AND as someone who has a decent amount of experience playing poker... you will have the SB beaten probably 20% of the time or more here. If you start making these tough laydowns on the river, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY AS A RESULT. This is NOT a spot you can save money. It looks like it is, but it isn't.

[MAxx]

interesting. please post hands that you experiment on this raising idea with. don't go out of your way, but i would like to see some of the successes and failures if you happen to raise in a spot on river similar to this hand.

[daveymck]

I think its not a case of having a standard play here but looking at how the play has been and what the river card has done. The draws have missed so that reduces the chances of a raise behind but obviously someone holding a Jack is potentially going to raise.

If it is raised then I can let it go it doesnt actually change things you are putting in 1bb expecting to be behind but knowing you are best enough times to jusify it. a raise behind more likely confirms you are behind just the same as seeing someones Ax on the showdown.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting. please post hands that you experiment on this raising idea with. don't go out of your way, but i would like to see some of the successes and failures if you happen to raise in a spot on river similar to this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Search for a post in the midstakes forum that I made two or three days ago ... subject is something like "Creative river play or just plain stupid?".

Basically you're getting 1:11.16 on a call and 2:11.16 on a raise ... that translates to about 9% and 17% respectively. You only need to make a better hand fold about 8% of the time to make raising better than calling.

The key here is that there is some chance that you have the best hand AND there is some chance that you can get a better hand to fold. Individually, neither chance is good enough but the parlay can sometimes be worthwhile.

[krishanleong]

I agree with Nate here 100%. Here is what it looks like to UTG + 1. Hero raises preflop from EP indicating a big pair or big A. He bet the flop when it contained an Ace. He bet the turn into 4 people when the turn was a blank. Now if you were UTG + 1 and had a jack, or a hand that beat a pair of aces, what would you do? Lead the river or checkraise? Now if you're a crappy player and a scare card hits, you might bet out for the heck of it. I don't think UTG + 1 beats you in this situation more than 15% of the time. Now the players to act behind you are a legitimate concern. Any of them could easily be playing a weak ace. This is where Nate's suggestion of raising has merit. You may be able to get a weak ace to fold. I really think this river line is terrible.

[MAxx]

sounds like your Ed situation could be very different for for a couple reasons. specifically there is no overpair to your aces. closing or not closing the action could be of some importance as well.

[dejableu]

yes it's different. i think we can all agree that sthief's position is less than ideal. but ed's basic message does not change. i have seen it pop up in countless different posts--don't fold to someone who check-calls all the way and then bets a scary card. it's generally a bluff.

nate's points are quite valid. a raise is the best play. you are probably least concerned about the player who bet into you. if you raise, you may fold someone who has Ax. what do you think they will put you on? my guess is AK, if not AJ, and some reasonable opponents will choose not to call two with a hand they assume is beat, especially if they fear a three-bet and a cap.

[DMBFan23]

this seems like a hand where you don't want overcalls, so being next to act after the bettor doesnt seem to make a "call" a good choice. I was going to type this, and prepare to get flamed, but apparently I'm not totally nuts.

I'd either fold or probably raise, but would you fold to a 3 bet? I'd be really really sure I was beat, but if I was closing the action on it I'd probably have to call. chip spewing?

[krishanleong]

I just want to say that I think SThiefs position on the river relative to the bettor couldn't be better. Before the river bet he has two choice, bet and noone with a better hand will fold or check and call. Now, with a bluff coming from his left on a scare card, he can face the field with two bets and potentially force better hands to fold.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
you are putting in 1bb expecting to be behind but knowing you are best enough times to jusify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says that Hero is "best enough times to justify it." It seems that 2+2ers love to assume that there is usually at least a 10% chance of their hand being good on the river, regardless of the board, the action, or the hand. I'm beginning to agree with a point made months back by GoT about it being intellectually lazy to avoid at least attempting to guestimate the likelihood that one's hand is good before throwing in "just one more bet."

[MAxx]

i haven't read nate's peice in the mid stakes quite yet, but i think some of you have not really thought the river raise out well enough yet.

Tell me honestly now- how often do you really expect to fold a better hand on sthief's hypothetical riveraise at party 3/6. I cannot see it happening much more than 0% of the time. No one's folding an A or a J or better. 2 to 3% max is what I come up with.

the call seems debateable, but the raise seems real foolish, unless you think you have value in your raise b/c your hand is likely to be good often evenough to invest 2BBs in it.

i would love to be wrong, cuz I am just looking for another excuse to hit the raise button... but I think raising is clearly wrong.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like a hand where you don't want overcalls, so being next to act after the bettor doesnt seem to make a "call" a good choice. I was going to type this, and prepare to get flamed, but apparently I'm not totally nuts.

I'd either fold or probably raise, but would you fold to a 3 bet? I'd be really really sure I was beat, but if I was closing the action on it I'd probably have to call. chip spewing?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a pretty easy fold if 3-bet, unless your opponent is an absolutely wacko.

[MaxPower]

Without any player knowledge and playing in a Party 3/6 game this is a definite call. It will shock you how many times you win this pot.

[Azhrarn]

*looks around nervously*

So am I the only one who would check-fold the turn?

[daveymck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are putting in 1bb expecting to be behind but knowing you are best enough times to jusify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says that Hero is "best enough times to justify it." It seems that 2+2ers love to assume that there is usually at least a 10% chance of their hand being good on the river, regardless of the board, the action, or the hand. I'm beginning to agree with a point made months back by GoT about it being intellectually lazy to avoid at least attempting to guestimate the likelihood that one's hand is good before throwing in "just one more bet."

[/ QUOTE ]

I do and I use this hand to prove it.

In this sort of hand where noone has shown any aggression at all I belive you have to call it down the amount of times you win and see people bet with trash on the river justifies it certainly at 3/6 and I suspect at 2/4 too.

I have no idea and dont guestimate myself on how often by percentage I am ahead I try (and often fail) to go off the action and deceide from there. SOmetimes I give a crying call, I think this is somthing that is hurting me at 5/10 I am becoming a calling station at my brief attempt up there knowing I am behind but still calling.

I am beginning to feel (and its only a 1,000 hands) that the SSH strategy is not as effective at 5/10 but that may be more down to me than anything.

[Bigdaddydvo]

That the Cutoff called your raise cold w/10-6s? Please tell me he had posted already, or I'll feel even worse that he took this pot instead of you, thief

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
In this sort of hand where noone has shown any aggression at all I belive you have to call it down

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, they usually won't show aggresison with an ace. It's an ironic situation - a player with a crappy ace usually plays this type of hand perfectly even though he doesn't realize it.

[dejableu]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me honestly now- how often do you really expect to fold a better hand on sthief's hypothetical riveraise at party 3/6. I cannot see it happening much more than 0% of the time. No one's folding an A or a J or better. 2 to 3% max is what I come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is entirely player-dependant. A calling station is going to pay the two big bets. But if a reasonably sound player, you for instance, were sitting on the button and you saw a bet and a raise in front of you when you held Ax, I think there is a fairly high chance that you're folding.

Obviously no J folds, but I disagree with your assessment of 2-3 percent.

[sthief09]

yes

[Azhrarn]

Alrighty then. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[daveymck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this sort of hand where noone has shown any aggression at all I belive you have to call it down

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, they usually won't show aggresison with an ace. It's an ironic situation - a player with a crappy ace usually plays this type of hand perfectly even though he doesn't realize it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true but I dont think the river is the time to deceide thats what they have played and fold for one bet.

If we are convinced more often than not that the Ace is there then we either have to dump on the flop or the turn as we are probably drawing to a 2 outer. I still think you have the best hand often enough in these situations to call that river bet, provided the pot is big enough.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me honestly now- how often do you really expect to fold a better hand on sthief's hypothetical riveraise at party 3/6. I cannot see it happening much more than 0% of the time. No one's folding an A or a J or better. 2 to 3% max is what I come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is entirely player-dependant. A calling station is going to pay the two big bets. But if a reasonably sound player, you for instance, were sitting on the button and you saw a bet and a raise in front of you when you held Ax, I think there is a fairly high chance that you're folding.

Obviously no J folds, but I disagree with your assessment of 2-3 percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Solid player with Ax in on this hand? After sthief's EP pf raise?... please. No, then they wouldnt be solid players. Maybe out of the blinds.

The type of player who has Ax on the river and hadn't made his presence known yet... is exactly the loose passive guy who is going to call 2 cold on the river and will absolutely NOT FOLD here.