NFL Standard: +3 pts for Home Field Advantage

[CarlSpackler]

When I first started learning nfl handicapping years ago, I was taught that home field advantage was worth 3 points for the home team. I have always believed in and followed this principle. For example, if team A and team B played on a neutral field and the bookmakers had the line as even, if the same game was played on team B's home field instead, the bookmakers would have team B favored by 3 points over team A, and vice versa. Also, in accordance with this principle, if the new england -8 vs. ARIZONA game this Sunday were to be played at New England instead, then in theory, NEW ENGLAND -14 vs. arizona would be the new line.

1. What do you think about the '+3 points for home field advantage principle?'

2. Do you believe, in theory, that this principle should be applied as illustrated in the above examples, and when it is not correctly factored into the line, a mistake has been made which can (and normally should) be taken advantage of?

Any thoughts and opinions welcomed.

[craig r]

Different teams do have different HFA. But, in Wong's book, sharp sports betting, he says that the average for the league is 3 points. some teams have less and some teams have more though.

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and when it is not correctly factored into the line, a mistake has been made which can (and normally should) be taken advantage of?

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my thoughts would be that the linesmakers would factor HFA in more than is necessary. especially for favorites at home, because the public loves to jump on these. but, on underdogs, the lines is probably not factored in enough. but, i have not done enough research to know for certain how true this is.


craig