Why the big swing?

[wacki]

The country was so polarized between Bush and Kerry. Now it's swinging toward Bush, and hard. If this swing keeps it's momentum there won't be very many states left for Kerry. What's going on? Why the sudden big shift? The swift boats are old news so it can't be that. RNC is already over. What's the deal?

Please serious theories only.

[Dynasty]

I just read this Wall Street Journal article. It's more about the long view of why the Republicans have become the majority party rather than dealing with the specifics of the Bush-Kerry election. But, I think it gives a broad view of what's happening.

D is for Descendancy (http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110005621)

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
The country was so polarized between Bush and Kerry. Now it's swinging toward Bush, and hard. If this swing keeps it's momentum there won't be very many states left for Kerry. What's going on? Why the sudden big shift? The swift boats are old news so it can't be that. RNC is already over. What's the deal?

Please serious theories only.

[/ QUOTE ]

Personalties. Neither candidate has made a decent case for any of us to vote for them. I'm not talking about the core constituencies, just the undecideds. So it comes down to a popularity contest. And apparently, not to me however, Bush is the more likeable.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Neither candidate has made a decent case for any of us to vote for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I think too. Kerry hasn't given people any reason to vote for him besides the fact that he's not Bush. In the end, I don't think that's good enough. The economy is slowly starting to come around, and people realize that, and it only makes it easier to stick with the status quo.

The Bush campaign has also done a great job of concentrating the issues around things that happened over 30 years ago, instead of present day. The latest CBS flap over the forged documents is just another distraction from debate over real issues.

Seriously, is what happened 30 years ago relevant right now for either candidate? Personally I would like to hear more about what someone like Kerry is going to do to lower health care costs, etc.

[The Dude]

A lot of people who were in the 'anybody but Bush' camp have realized they didn't quite mean 'anybody.' I'm voting Libertarian, but if I had to choose between Bush and Kerry, it would be... well let's just say it wouldn't be Kerry.

[Smasharoo]

Bush is barely ahead in electoral polling and not even vaguely close to ahead in enough states to win the election.

I think you all might be overreacting slightly to a four or five point move in national polling two months before the election.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Bush is barely ahead in electoral polling and not even vaguely close to ahead in enough states to win the election.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agreee. Check out this Electoral College map (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

The 296-238 number (with 4 tied) is not the key. The key is that almost all the battleground states have shifted in Bush's favor. In states where Bush had small wins in 2000, the most recent polls show him leading by a greater margin (Ohio, Florida, Missouri). In states where Gore won in 2000, Bush has occassionally moved ahead and has usually cut Kerry's lead dramatically (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Jersey).

Kerry has recently pulled advertising $$$ out of states which he had hoped to be competitive in (Missouri, Colorado, Tennessee). The states where Kerry is putting all his efforts into has been steadily shrinking. Now, a big priority for the campaign has been in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. Those are all states Gore won in 2000. Yet, both Kerry and Bush are fighting vigorously for them. Kerry is on the defensive. He's defending the "Blue States" and not attacking the "Red States".

Don't forget this. The Electoral College map changed because of the 2000 census. I believe that if Bush won all the states which he won in 2000, those states would be worth 280 Electoral College votes. In 2000, those states were only worth 271. So, theoretically, Bush was up 9 Electoral College votes before the 2004 campaign even began.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of people who were in the 'anybody but Bush' camp have realized they didn't quite mean 'anybody.'

[/ QUOTE ]

This made me laugh.

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that if Bush won all the states which he won in 2000, those states would be worth 280 Electoral College votes. In 2000, those states were only worth 271.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 2000 states are worth 278 EV's in 2004, Gore's are worth 260.

If you want to easily create your own map starting with 2000 as the base, Go Here. (http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html)

[wacki]

GWB is this what you do on your vacations? Post on Two plus two? Get back to work. The whitehouse is getting dusty.

[Dr Wogga]

....the battleground swing is absolutely huge, but also his might very well be the worst-run campaign in history. Harping on 'Nam is the stupidest, dumbest crap and obfuscating any and all differences he should be drawing between himself and Bush on the many issues Bush is vulnerable on. Sad that this is the best the dems can do

[Dynasty]

According to the most recent polls from SurveyUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html), Bush is now AHEAD in New Jersey 49-45 and has narrowed Kerry's lead in Illinois to 49-45.

Bush ahead in New Jersey? Bush within the margin of error in Illinois? This was unfathomable a month ago. Neither of these states was supposed to be close to being in play. In 2000, Gore won New Jersey 56-40 and Illinois 55-43.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
....the battleground swing is absolutely huge, but also his might very well be the worst-run campaign in history. Harping on 'Nam is the stupidest, dumbest crap and obfuscating any and all differences he should be drawing between himself and Bush on the many issues Bush is vulnerable on. Sad that this is the best the dems can do

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but the swing is a recent occurance. Less than a week ago Kerry was ahead according to http://www.electoral-vote.com/. Now Kerry is loosing ground and loosing it fast. What has happened recently?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Now Kerry is loosing ground and loosing it fast. What has happened recently?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kerry took his hits after his convention. Bush got voters motivated for him during his convention. The polls are catching up to this.

Of course, all the news since the RNC has basically been good for Bush and bad for Kerry.

[Dr Wogga]

....and slightly off-topic, is there a more pathertic, arrogant jerk than Dan Rather? He would sell his viagra to have Bush lose. The CBS piece is soooo back-firing on Kerry. And further off-topic, would CBS have had so much scrutiny, so much back-lash in such a quick time in a pre-cable news (Fox especially) era?

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
....and slightly off-topic, is there a more pathertic, arrogant jerk than Dan Rather? He would sell his viagra to have Bush lose. The CBS piece is soooo back-firing on Kerry. And further off-topic, would CBS have had so much scrutiny, so much back-lash in such a quick time in a pre-cable news (Fox especially) era?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you hit the nail on the button with that one. Hannity and Colms had a show w/ a Dem Strategist. He was so angry he took over the show and nobody could really question him. CBS messed up. I'm just suprised that CBS can have this kind of impact when you have (D) Congressman and (D)Senators defending Moore. If defending Moore doesn't hurt Kerry why would CBS and Dan Rather? The fact that Dan Rather lying his a$$ off can affect Kerry makes me wonder about the general public. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.


I think your right about the pre-cable news thing. And quite frankly, I'm glad it's there. Checks and balances and all.

[Dr Wogga]

...back-fired on the Republicans in Clinton's re-election. The challenger has to go after the incumbent on ISSUES, not history, not marital indiscretions, not "Travel-gate" or "Hump-o-gate" or "Stain-o-gate" or "National Guard-o-gate". Its about the ISSUES, stupid. The American public would not let Republicans rail-road slick Willy on the A-B-C (anybody but Clinton) themesong - and that may have been the most morally corrupt administration in our history. Why would idiot democrats & CBS think the American people are going to bounce Bush for the same (A-B-B) reason? It's very moronic strategy and also shows that enough people in high places don't pay attention to history (those that don't learn from it, are doomed to repeat it)

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
...back-fired on the Republicans in Clinton's re-election. The challenger has to go after the incumbent on ISSUES, not history, not marital indiscretions, not "Travel-gate" or "Hump-o-gate" or "Stain-o-gate" or "National Guard-o-gate". Its about the ISSUES, stupid. The American public would not let Republicans rail-road slick Willy on the A-B-C (anybody but Clinton) themesong - and that may have been the most morally corrupt administration in our history. Why would idiot democrats & CBS think the American people are going to bounce Bush for the same (A-B-B) reason? It's very moronic strategy and also shows that enough people in high places don't pay attention to history (those that don't learn from it, are doomed to repeat it)

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, the A-B-B strategy was working until recently. Also, that doesn't explain the recent and huge swing. I would of thought the A-B-C or A-B-B campaign wouldn't work on the American public but that doesn't appear to be the case, atleast not before the RNC.

[jokerswild]

Zogby, Rasmussen, and any poltically knowledgable person knows that this election is very much up for grabs.

A shift has transpired, though. I guess that Americans prefer drug addicted, alcoholic spolied brats that are destroying the long term econmic viability of the nation as preferable to a true war hero that thinks.

I can understand the wealthy greed. I don't understand the middle class falling for the rob the country blind platform of Christian zealots.

[riverflush]

[ QUOTE ]
Zogby, Rasmussen, and any poltically knowledgable person knows that this election is very much up for grabs.

A shift has transpired, though. I guess that Americans prefer drug addicted, alcoholic spolied brats that are destroying the long term econmic viability of the nation as preferable to a true war hero that thinks.

I can understand the wealthy greed. I don't understand the middle class falling for the rob the country blind platform of Christian zealots.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's just a classic post. Classic.

One for the archives.

[wacki]

http://www.zogby.com

Wow, who pays $199 for voting reports on 20 states? That's too little to be selling to just the Republican or Dem campaign machines, and too much for the average news reader.

[Dr Wogga]

......"as preferable to a true war hero that thinks." You have to be a pinko from massachusette - or - at least have drank too much of the kool-aid. I'm laughing too hard to think that anyone can actually believe what you wrote......but riddle me this kool-aid meister: how can someone criticize the equipment of our fighting troops and have a voting record that shows he VOTED AGAINST IT????? LMFAO!!!!That's great. But its reality check time, pinko. Keep calling Bush names and continue to hope against hope that nobody takes a look at Kerry's VOTING RECORD!!! Maybe in an era when the big 3 networks ruled the roost from a "news" perspective, and slanted every damn newscast to the left. Not anymore!!Not a chance of that happening. Not with big ratings giant Fox cable news out there. Know this: kerry's record = or lack thereof thanks to missing 70+ votes while part of an important comittee - is going to be examined by the American public. It won't stand up to any kind of scrutiny when you balance his voting record vs. his rhetoric. Kerry's effed - and so are you bozo liberals. Ha, ha, ha, ha.....nothing better than having lying Dan Rather or lying Michael Moore, or convicted currency swindler George Soros as your poster boys. Yessiree Bob!!! It just doesn't get any better than reading moronic comments like ".....a true war hero that thinks" Oh my God, you are clueless. Foe' mo' yo'

[tanda]

Good article.

The old media says the country is polarized.

They are in denial.

If the Dems controlled the White House, Senate, House of Reps, majority of governorships and majority of state houses, does anybody think they would say the country was evenly divided?

Although their majority is thin, the Rs are the governing party. Not as dominant as some of the Dem majorities in the past, but the majority party nonetheless.

As to the election shift:

1) Republican leaning of country (see above),
2) Likeability of GWB (and underestimation of this by Dems),
3) Economy not as bad as Dems would like you to believe,
4) Dems believing GWB re-election chances more like Carter/Bush I than Clinton,
5) Kerry is a bad candidate: no great affection for him even among Dems, tax and spend Mass. lib, etc,
6) After 6 bad months for Bush and 6 corresponding good months for Kerry, Kerry was only tied. When Bush finally had a good month and Kerry a bad month, the shift occurred.

[tanda]

Agreed.

As I mentioned elsewhere, Kerry knows he is losing. Just follow his advertising and appearances. He is fighting for blue states much harder than GWB is for red states.

Plus, GWB does not even have to pick up a state, he can even lose a small one.

[wacki]

Dr. Wogga,

Who are you talking to? Who are you calling pinko? And are you sober? Who's talking about war hero's here? So far we are only talking about why the swing has occured, why it's now, and why so sudden.

[tanda]

That's Kerry's problem.

Besides the "Bush is the devil crowd", he is finding it hard to find support, since nobody likes him (not that he is particularly disliked either, just little genuine affection).

B.T.W. I am middle class. I find his tax cuts very useful. I used the tax cuts to save for my retirement and my children's education.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Good article.

The old media says the country is polarized.

They are in denial.

[/ QUOTE ]
O'reilly and many of his guests disagree. It was split between the bush haters, and the bush lovers. It's not now.

[ QUOTE ]

6) After 6 bad months for Bush and 6 corresponding good months for Kerry, Kerry was only tied. When Bush finally had a good month and Kerry a bad month, the shift occurred.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good theory. But what all is bad for Kerry. It CBS's Dan rather really the cause behind the swing? Is one man, who is not even related to Kerry, capable of doing this?

[natedogg]

ng

[wacki]

Silly me, thanks for the clarification natedogg

Wogga is good.

[ QUOTE ]
ng

[/ QUOTE ]

ng = natedogg?

[natedogg]

nt

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
nt

[/ QUOTE ]

so what does that mean?

[Cyrus]

A Wogga primer:

"Wogga, who are you talking to?"

Himself, mostly. We are incidental in his world.

"Who are you calling pinko?"

You and anyone to the left of Lyndon La Rouche.

"And are you sober?"

Sober? Never. (Sometimes he will also have a drink.)

"Who's talking about war heros here??"

Wogga picks his subject as he goes along.

...I highly recommend Wogga's "posts" against symptoms of hypotension and bouts of mild depression. Great cure. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
A Wogga primer:

"Who are you calling pinko?"

You and anyone to the left of Lyndon La Rouche.


[/ QUOTE ]

Never hear of the Dem LaRouche before you mentioned him. I still don't know why he would be calling me a pinko tho.

According to dictionary.com pinko is:

n : emotionally charged terms used to refer to extreme radicals or revolutionaries [syn: Bolshevik, Marxist, red, bolshie]

or

n. Slang pl. pink·os

A person who holds moderately leftist political views; a pink.

So can I either take that as a compliment or an insult. Not really sure what to do. I don't agree with Bush when it comes to stem cell research and certain aspects of the environment. Some environmental issues he has right, like conservation, others he really needs to address before it's too late. Time will prove that I am right on these things, as just about every leading/important scientist in the world is saying the same thing.

[Chris Alger]

Your "big swing" might be an ephemeral post-convention bounce. After all, Bush's popularity has been trending downward almost continuously since 9/12/01. That Bush can barely pull above even is almost surprising given Kerry's joke of a campaign, media fears of delegitimizing the liar-in-chief and Fox's 24/7 Bush commercial.

From this morning's LA Times:

"The solid lead President Bush established in several polls after the Republican National Convention appeared to have faded Thursday, as two new national surveys showed his race against Sen. John F. Kerry again is a virtual tie. The polls, by the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive, are certain to buoy spirits within the Kerry campaign, which other Democrats have been criticizing for not responding effectively to GOP attacks. The Pew Center poll had Bush and Kerry at 46% apiece among registered voters. The Harris poll gave Bush a statistically insignificant lead, 48% to 47%, among a pool of likely voters. The margin of error for the Pew Center poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for the Harris poll, it is 3 percentage points."

If Kerry starts to hit hard on Bush's war, he'll probably win. If he doesn't, he'll probably lose. Of course, you can never underestimate the dirty tricks potential of a party dedicated to the proposition that you can in fact fool all of the people all of the time. Expect them to announce around Nov. 2 that bin Laden has been captured or killed, or "suspected" of same, identity awaiting verification, or something comparably cynical.

[jokerswild]

You are the biggest bigot here. You have numerous posts deleted for slurring Blacks. You advocate genocide of Arabs. You think that you represent Israel, but you don't. As a decendant of German Jews, I can tell you that you are a pathetic joke of a Zionist. Your views promote terrorism.You are very un-American. True Americans believe in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. The Bush fascists resemble Mussolini.Wogga resembles Kapos.

It's comforting and humorous to know that you live such a miserable existence.

[Dr Wogga]

....the main thrust of my post which is that Kerry's voting record is indefensible because KERRY'S VOTING RECORD doesn't match his rhetoric. Clearly the most pathetic political campaign in my lifetime.

Also, I cannot remember ever having even 1 post deleted because of racial slurs. OTOH, I love Israel, despite being Roman Catholic. They are staunch allies and have continually demonstrated the same balls as our great president by killing filthy terrorist arabs - and that's a good thing! And, exactly where did I ever say ALL arabs???All terrorist arabs - yes. Or that all arabs are terrorists?? Never! However, I do believe that the term liberal pinko or dork fits here. Psst - and just between us guys: You're starting to sound a little McGreevy-ish. I'm getting worried about you jokerswild. We may have to smell your fingers to make sure you're a red-blooded hetero, if you catch my drift. And, if the shoe fits...........