Week 2 Suicide Pool pick

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Used Philly last week, so they're out. I'm thinking Green Bay in their home opener.

Comments?

[NoChance]

That would be my choice also.

[eggzz]

Or you could go out on a limb and try the Bengals. That would use up a mediocre/good team and leave the Packers for a better spot when they wouldn't be coming off a Monday nighter. I believe the nine points may be too much, but they should win this 90% of the time. I see Cincy winning this game 75% of the time.

This pool is all about going for the best possible game though, especially early on. It would be hard to not take the Packers. But remember what happened in Game one last year with the Texans/Dolphins.

I always try to look at things from both vantage points. If 70% of the people that are still alive take the Pack, wouldn't it be great for them to get upset? Wowo, there would probably only be 20% of the participants left.

With so many options to choose from in week one, how many out of how many are out already, that maybe took the Ravens and the Chiefs?

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could go out on a limb and try the Bengals. That would use up a mediocre/good team and leave the Packers for a better spot when they wouldn't be coming off a Monday nighter

[/ QUOTE ]

If I were going to use a mediocre team this week it would be New Orleans to not lose two in a row at home(against SF) or the Jets, who played pretty well last week, against San Diego(who should never win two in a row).

That being said, you will not have a better opportunity to use Green Bay this year and they should be the pick.

[eggzz]

Well, I would pick 8-10 teams before picking New Orleans. They just fell flat on their face at home. Thought they would put up more of a fight against the Hawks. That being said, they could put up a real good effort off of an embarassing loss.

I do like the Jets. This looks like a team that will be strong at the beginning of the year.

[bugstud]

dude. KEN DORSEY. I'd take New Orleans this week...

[mmbt0ne]

I agree with the Bengals. But then again I'm saving teams like Philly, GB, and Pats til the end of the year. I had Seattle in the first week, and I'm pretty confident picking Cinci this week. If I hear anything about Eli starting this week though, I'm picking the Redskins in a heartbeat to hand NYG their second loss of the season.

[Josh W]

I think the best pick this week is Kansas City against Carolina.

Let me clarify...I think that GB is a SLIGHLY **safer** pick. But I also expect them to be the overwhelming majority pick.

Kansas City is playing at home against a Carolina team that will be missing it's most threatening player. Yes, Stephen Davis should be able to run somewhat, but Carolina's O-line is just a ghost of what it was last year, and even KC's weak defense should be able to slow him down.

Moreover, as good of a reputation as Carolina's D has, they do always give up points. Ahman Green had his way with them, and KC's O-line is better than GBs.

Throw all that in the mix with the fact that it's KC's home opener in the always-ridiculously-tough Arrowhead Stadium, and I think KC is a lock to win.

And since almost nobody is talking about it happening, you'll likely be one of the very very few in your league to pick it, so you'll survive if GB gets upset.

Something to gnaw on...

Josh

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Yeah, but I'm talking specifically about a suicide pool pick. I picked Philly last week. I can't pick them any more.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Good points, Josh. Now I need to see if there's a reason to save either team for a later week.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I believe the nine points may be too much

I've never been part of a suicide pool that used point spreads. In this one, your pick each week is win/lose - no spread.

[ftball0000]

My top 3 picks for a suicide pool this week are:

1) GB, I think that's fairly obvious
2) NO, I think they will make up for their stinker last week, and like another poster said... IT'S KEN DORSEY!!
3) WAS, They are a blitz heavy team, and the g-men can't handle the blitz no matter who is starting at QB

HTH
-Ftball

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could go out on a limb and try the Bengals.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Going out on a limb" in Week 2 is absolutely the worst strategy for a suicide pool.

-McGee

EDIT: Ok, maybe not literally "absolutely the worst." Picking teams you expect to lose is the worst. But I still think it's a pretty bad strategy.

[mmbt0ne]

Yeah, I know. I was just saying that we are using different strategies. You seem to be picking the safer teams earlier, and I'm picking riskier ones.

[Aces McGee]

This is the second post in this thread that advocates this riskier strategy. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand how taking risks early can be a solid strategy for a suicide pool.

I understand the idea of going against the grain in the hopes that the "popular" pick will get upset and therefore significantly thin the field, and I understand the idea of stockpiling strong teams, if you can, until late in the year. But I think it's a major mistake to carry these ideas too far and risk the whole thing on a marginal pick in Week 2.

-McGee

[mmbt0ne]

Well, it's not like I'm picking the underdogs to win. I'm just picking favorites who I have confidence in, and who won't cause me to be picking the Falcons in week 16. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but so far with Seattle and now Cincinatti I don't feel like I'm picking scrubs to win. Merely good teams that everyone else hasn't jumpd on the bandwagon of yet.
Also, my choices aren't that out of line, if you look at ESPN's game, Seattle last week and Cinci this week are both in the top 5 of teams picked.

[Aces McGee]

When you put it that way, it makes more sense (I'm not sold at all on Cincy, but that's a personal decision).

-McGee

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The issue about taking the strong teams *now* is that there is no guarantee that they'll be the strong teams later.

[mmbt0ne]

This is probably why I still end up losing these things. Oh well, hopefully as I get deeper into some of my prob/stat and modeling classes I'll do a better job of evaluating.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the best pick this week is Kansas City against Carolina.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you even think of using Kansas City this week? They are in a division where they get to play San Diego TWICE, and Oakland, a team they match up well against, twice too.

[ QUOTE ]
Kansas City is playing at home against a Carolina team that will be missing it's most threatening player. Yes, Stephen Davis should be able to run somewhat, but Carolina's O-line is just a ghost of what it was last year, and even KC's weak defense should be able to slow him down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch them play Sunday night? They can't stop anybody! Gunther Cunningham is back as coordinator. Big deal! Bad defensive players and a new coordinator still equals bad defense.

[ QUOTE ]
Moreover, as good of a reputation as Carolina's D has, they do always give up points. Ahman Green had his way with them, and KC's O-line is better than GBs

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree Carolina's defense is overrated. But one of the reasons Ahman Green had such a good night is the threat of Favre going downfield had to be respected. Who's KC got for a deep threat? Eddie I drop more than I catch and have lost a step Kennison?

[ QUOTE ]
Throw all that in the mix with the fact that it's KC's home opener in the always-ridiculously-tough Arrowhead Stadium, and I think KC is a lock to win.


[/ QUOTE ]

Should KC win this game? Yes. Are they a lock? No. Are there better selections for a suicide pool this week? Absolutely.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
The issue about taking the strong teams *now* is that there is no guarantee that they'll be the strong teams later.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly. So many people say "im gonna save my good teams" then either those teams aren't very good at the end or they get busted picking a mediocre team early.
I say pick good teams who you think will win. Near the end you may have to take a couple flyers, but at least you'll be near the end.

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
The issue about taking the strong teams *now* is that there is no guarantee that they'll be the strong teams later.

[/ QUOTE ]

And there is no guarantee that the weak teams from week one won't bite you in the arse in week two either.

Lovie Smith was hired to beat Green Bay. I hope Favre isn't too sore to lace them up Sunday. Any given Sunday baby. You have to be careful every week. There is no such thing as a lock.

Speaking though of stockpiling good teams, lets forget about Cincinnati for a minute. How bout them Cowboys?

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Lovie Smith was hired to beat Green Bay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Kurn, I hope I got you to get off of the Packers. The Bengals don't look to great though, down 3-0 at halftime, but I bet a lot of people went down with the Pack and the Redskins.

Who did you end up taking?!