ok... anyone else find more bad beats at ULTIMATE BET than others?

[menthemaster]

ok.. i am the last person to blame luck... or cheating.... or anything like that... but for the last few months... i have gotten soooooo many bad beats at ultimatebet.

meaning ... lower pocket pair ALWAYS makes a set.... (most of the time on the river)


this is just happended to me when i lost with aces... to trip 7's on the river...

and yesterday... when i had AA vs. KK (on the river he gets a king)


both times.. these were over 200 dollar pots...



now i know it is just luck..... and all that stuff.. but just wondering if anyone else has seen this more often on one site than another?

i told myself that if it happened again today i would stop playing on UB.. because it happens so much....


and sure enough... an hour into my session it happens.

UGH.... thats my rant for the day.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
ok.. i am the last person to blame luck... or cheating.... or anything like that... but

[/ QUOTE ]


its amazing how many stupid posts start out with this exact sentance

[threeonefour]

no. i think one of the major leaks in the two plus two community is that posts like these surface on an almost daily basis. this has been discussed so many times before and there is no real evidence supporting these claims. not to be rude.... but it is true.

[CountDuckula]

Unfortunately, anything can happen in the short run. In the long run, the cards will fall as probability dictates, but the long run is very, very long indeed. Some people will see disproportionate bad beats at UB, others will see them at Party, still others will see them at Stars. And other people will enjoy astonishing at those sites. For a while, anyway....

Also, remember the role selection bias plays. When you get hit by a bad beat, such as someone rivering trip 7s to take out your pocket rockets, you remember that! You may not think twice about the times your As hold up, because that's what "should" happen; but when they don't, you feel somehow cheated, and it sticks in your mind.

Variance is a b****, I'm afraid.

-Mike

[menthemaster]

i know it is all even in the long run.... and i play at about 3 different sites daily.....

i have had a ton of bad beats.... at UB... but i know it is all just random... so i continued to play there... but it seems to happen everytime....


i have taken bad beats at every site.... and in live games.... no worries... i am just stating that at UB it happens more than other sites... and wondering if anyone else noticed this?

either way.... i am done wth UB. i love their software... and game selection.... but it is just not worth the bad beats.

call me crazy.. but that is just the way i feel.

[alittle]

How come we never see the posts from the people that say UB (pick your site) is amazingly lucky for them. I've had my share of "bad" beats, but I've also had my share of river sets and gutshot straights. I've seen all-ins on the flop switch leaders on every street. I busted aces full with quads.

I think a lot of this is selective memory - since the "bad" beats are so negative, you remember those as bad luck, but when you win one, it's all skill.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok.. i am the last person to blame luck... or cheating.... or anything like that... but

[/ QUOTE ]


its amazing how many stupid posts start out with this exact sentance

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=gossip&Number=981196&Forum =All_Forums&Words=fellas&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Mai n=981196&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=6373&dater ange=1&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&b odyprev=#Post981196)

[burningyen]

You're not crazy, just irrational.

[RiverMel]

UB is by far the fastest site out there. If you play X hours on UB, you will be dealt far more hands than when playing for X hours on any other site. So you'll also be dealt more "bad beats."

[spacemonkey57]

I really doubt it, considering I just got bounced from a UB sit n go when my somehow my QQ failed to spike a third queen and lost to AA.

[Big O]

I think I have had the same amount of Suckouts against me and many as I have sucked out against my opponents. U just happen to remember the hands you lose more than the lucky ones you do win. I guess I must be lucky because I am a winning player at UB. Give me a break

[busguy]

I haven't played much at UB, but I doubt that it is much different than Party, Stars, or Paradise etc.

The posters above all make good points but one that hasn't really been stressed is that with all the new players flocking to the on-line game over the past few months it would make sense that you notice more "bad beats". These newbies are going to the river with anything (thank god) so the possibility of them spiking something (2 pair, trips etc) is definitely there. A year ago you probably wouldn't see nearly as many people taking small pocket pairs to the river against bets and raises like these guys do.

I think you have to take the good with the bad. Be thankful that these new players are so loose and pay you off so often . . .and then just smile and shake you head when they win a pot that they had no business being in.

As someone said above : Variance is your friend. She's a bitch . . . . but she's your friend

/images/graemlins/wink.gif busguy

[Equal]

I suspect that it is easier for us to remember bad beats instead of good ones because we get the "full story" with the bad beats, and oftentimes only half of it with a good beat.

What I mean is that with a bad beat you get to see both hands, however with a "good beat" you oftentimes don't see the opponents hand, and may not realize how lucky you got.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
How come we never see the posts from the people that say UB (pick your site) is amazingly lucky for them.

[/ QUOTE ]


We actually do kinda get posts like this i think.

"I've been winning 15BB/100 at party in my last 4k hands. I know I've just been getting lucky and am running very hot but......"



But your general point is correct.
When most players win 10-15BB/100 they won that much because they are so much better players then everyone else.
When they lose it is bad-luck, bad-players, bad-site, excessively bad-beats, etc.



For whatever reason, I'm more criical of myself for some reason.
When I break-even or lose 1BB/100 over a week or so I'm extremely critical of my own pla and abilities.
If I win 2-4BB/100 over the course of a few weeks (month or longer) I feel like I've been getting incredibly lucky and have been hitting significantly more sets and catching good cards on the river far more often then I deserve.


I think it's a matter of self-perception.

Many fish think they are MUCH better than they really are. So when they don't win they are kind of confused because they just KNOW they are doing everything right.

Some winning players are more objective in their abilities OR even underestimate how good they are.


The psychology of 'I'm so good that I never deserve to go on a bad run' that many of your worst table-whiners and conspiracy theorists rant-on about is still very interesting to me.