A little Bayes theorem

[chill888]

Assume the villain is not a known fool. Assume hand 10 - 20 in a mid level tourney (the true morons have been identified).

Now you see a check UTG there is at least one raise and the UTG makes a pretty big reraise.

What is the chance he has AA. Personally I'm thinking it is greater than 50% and for some players it is much higher.

Thoughts? I've been able to fold Ak and QQ to this but never KK and have seen KK bump into it (me and other players) enough to have my thoughts about folding it.

[rybones]

wow, I busted out of a 20+2 last night at pp this way!

I had KK in the sb and raised the 4 limpers and bb by 4xbb. utg called and co call. flop came q,x,x rainbow. I check, utg checks co raise pot. I cold call hoping to give odds to utg so he will call. He then pushs, co folds, I think haha he has A,Q so I call and he turns the A,A. WAH, Wah, wah. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I still don't think there is any way to get away from this with K, K. but I hate the mark in my 10 place finish column on my sng tracker.

[SmileyEH]

Many people will do this with low pocket pairs more than aces because they hate getting aces cracked. As it were I have played 90 $20 SNG's and have never run into an UTG limpreraise with aces that I can remember.

-SmileyEH

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Many people will do this with low pocket pairs more than aces because they hate getting aces cracked. As it were I have played 90 $20 SNG's and have never run into an UTG limpreraise with aces that I can remember.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]


WOW you don't play much? or everyone folds to him? Seriously? Fair enough I believe you but I see it all day long.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Many people will do this with low pocket pairs more than aces because they hate getting aces cracked. As it were I have played 90 $20 SNG's and have never run into an UTG limpreraise with aces that I can remember.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]


WOW you don't play much? or everyone folds to him? Seriously? Fair enough I believe you but I see it all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen it many times.

My thoughts are that any limper UTG, who subsequently reraises preflop ALMOST always has KK or AA.

I then play the hand accordingly.

I'm going 35% KK, 55% AA, and 10% something else, maybe QQ or AK or he thinks he's Gus Hansen.

[patrick dicaprio]

i presume you mean a call UTG. this play is usually AA or KK. but i have seen it done with worse sometimes much worse on a few occasions, including once with A9s /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Pat

[CrisBrown]

Hi chill,

A limp-reraise from UTG signals AA or KK, yes. Given that, what is the likelihood that it really is AA or KK? That will depend on the player UTG, and his/her read of the pre-flop raiser and the other limpers. The bluff frequency in this situation will be relatively small (probably less than 50%), but if you ONLY do it with AA and KK, at an ultra-tight table or against weak-tight opponents, it's probably a (very small) leak in your game.

That having been said, I think never doing the bluff-limp-reraise from UTG would be a much smaller leak than doing it even a small amount too often. So it's probably better to err on the side of caution.

How often should you call the UTG-limp-reraise? Probably almost never without AA or KK yourself, and perhaps not on KK if the UTG player is very tight.

Cris

[chill888]

Cris thanks for post.

The purpose of my post is to talk myself out of KK IF I ALREADY have a healthy stack. But it's difficult to fold KK preflop. As I said QQ and AKo have already been happily folded. lol