Official "3+1 NFL Challenge- 2004" line and thread for Week #2

[Easy E]

All picks are due by noon on Sunday... unless a hurricane changes any games again.

<font color="blue"> Sun 9/19
Broncos vs Jaquars +3.0
Steelers vs. Ravens -4.5
Texans vs. Lions -3.0
Colts vs. Titans -1.5
Bears vs. Packers -9.0
Redskins vs. Giants +3.0
49ers vs. Saints -7.0
Rams vs. Falcons -2.5
Panthers vs. Chiefs -6.0
Seahawks vs. Bucs +3
Browns vs. Cowboys -4.0
Patriots vs. Cardinals +8.0
Bills vs Raiders -3.5
Jets vs. Chargers +3.0
Dolphins vs. Bengels -4.0

Mon 9/20
Vikings vs. Eagles -3.5 </font>

[mikelow]

$400 pick--Lions -3 (Cheap price at home for Lions)
$300 pick--Colts +1.5 (Colts don't start 0-2)
$200 pick--Steelers +4.5 (Too many points with Ravens' offensive difficulties)
$100 pick--Broncos +3 (Broncos still have more weapons)

Fade away!

[Easy E]

glad to see the quick comments on each game.

however, can you put them below the games, to make it easier for me to grab the info that I and others need?

Something like this (ignore colors):

<font color="blue"> $400 Lions
$300 Colts
$200 Steelers
$100 Broncos <font color="green">

Lions -3 (Cheap price at home for Lions)
Colts +1.5 (Colts don't start 0-2)
Steelers +4.5 (Too many points with Ravens' offensive difficulties)
Broncos +3 (Broncos still have more weapons

</font></font>

Thanks

[shemp]

<font color="blue">
$400 Cowboys
$300 Lions
$200 Rams
$100 Chargers </font>

(Just because he said ignore color).

Mail is pouring into Chateau Shemp, as everyone wants to hear more analysis from Mr. 4-0. Well, I aim to please, and I'm giving it away rather than charging for my expert advice:

Exhaustive database work reveals that week #2 historically has been all about teams that wear blue with a sub theme being gluttony.

Cowboys -4 -- Mmmmmmmm. The Tuna in shorts. Mmmmmmmm. Yeahhh. I look for Parcells to break out some of that sneaky jap [censored], Ahi rolls.

Lions -3 -- I see Mooch putting on 20 pounds this year, and by the end, if he grows a mustache he'll be a dead-ringer for Kirstie Allie.

Rams +2.5 --As much as I want to fade the Lambs, as certain as I am that Martz will lose this team, as bad as his body language is, you have to respect the body. Very nice ass. Dude has some junk in the trunk.

Chargers +3 --Yeah. Shotty is thin. Of course he is. HE'S A FRICKING BULEMIC! Binge. Purge. Marty will Binge on Sunday.

[Easy E]

(Just because he said ignore color).

but given the rest of his post, it was pretty ironic as well!

Love ya, shemp!

[mikelow]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Easy E]

as far as interspersing comments.

It makes it much more work for myself to transfer the picks.

Sorry.

[swimfan]

$400- Redskins -3
$300- Patriots -8
$200- Lions -3
$100- Jets -3


$400- Redskins -3 (I was at the Eagles game Sunday. the Giants really are that bad. Redskins D very impressive week 1. I suspect this may be a popular pick.)
$300- Patriots -8 (think Cardinals will play well against mediocre teams, get drubbed by the very good)
$200- Lions -3 (at home, think they're a dark horse to make the wild card. yes, i did just finish my vodka-laced kool-aid)
$100- Jets -3 (guess i'm going with all favs)


Edit: Sorry, I don't read instructions very well /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[SossMan]

$400 Patriots
$300 Rams
$200 Ravens
$100 Panthers

[jamesburke]

400: cowboys -4
300: Jets -3
200: seahawks -3
100: Bengals -4

[Lori]

$400 Bills +3.5
$300 Browns +4
$200 Bengals -4
$100 Broncos -3

Okay, I'm getting into this sports stuff and doing vaguely alright, so thought I'd pit myself against the best to remind myself that I'm just a punter and not a player at this game.

No I haven't picked all the "B"s to be cute, my fave pick of the week is actually the monday game to be over 48 points, with no 'B's in sight.

For me, the Bills beat the Jaguars in all but 4th downs and points this week and I like the thought of a head start.

The Browns is a bit of a gamble, but although they were up against a disfunctional offense this week, they did the job, whilst the Cowboys, although taking on tough opposition and making lots of yards didn't seem capable of stopping a four year old kid, let alone any 6 foot brick outhouses.

I take the Bengals purely because I can't see the Dolphins getting within four of anyone.

The Broncos bet is to cover myself. If I have the Bills wrong, then the Jaguars are going to be a very sorry outfit indeed, and I don't fancy losing $1000 in my first ever attempt at this.

Lori

[Vaughn]

Vaughn $200 (+140) 3-1

Saints -7.0 $400
Jets -3.0 $300
Packers -9.0 $200
Vikings +3.5 $100

Vaughn

[ftball0000]

400 Redskins -3
300 Lions -3
200 Jets -3
100 Bills +3.5


I went w/ the skins b/c they are a blitz heavy team and as we all saw last week, the g-men definitely have trouble handling the blitz

I like the Lions because they are at home against a texan team that doesn't play well away, and also I think the Lions will have some confidence after FINALLY winning on the road

I like the Jets -3 because I think the chargers are getting far too much respect for their win, Pennington has looked very sharp and there is no way that drew brees can play 2 good games in a row

Finally I take my Buffalo Bills, I have season tickets for them and that last game was absolute torture. They dominated the jags for 58 minutes and then played possibly the worst last 2 minutes they could possibly play. They have to improve in the red zone... and if they do watch out, they play almost the exact same style of football carolina played last year, lots of runs and same passes, with a few deep ones mixed in there and rely on the defense to keep the game low scoring. I have no idea what the O/U is but I'm pretty sure it'll be low scoring again... maybe 20-14 Bills


Good Luck,
-Ftball

[Vaughn]

Sorry. I forgot the format when I was pasting.

Vaughn $200 (+140) 3-1

$400 Saints -7.0
$300 Jets -3.0
$200 Packers -9.0
$100 Vikings +3.5


Vaughn

[babigm]

$400 Jets
$300 Texans
$200 49ers
$100 Browns

Jets - My one favorite. They looked good in defeating a much better team the Chargers. If Martin has another good game I don't see this being close.
Texans - I don't know why the Lions are getting so much love at all. They lost their best receiver, got out-rushed and out-passed, received a 5 turnover gift, was 2/14 on 3rd down, and squeaked out a win against Bears, who don't exactly look like Super Bowl contenders, thanks to a field goal block returned for a touchdown. Hopefully hometown bias doesn't bite me on the ass with this one, though it may be balanced out by me being a total Roy Williams worshipper in college.
49er's - Kept it close against Atlanta. I think the Saints are overvalued, -7.0 is way too much respect, people have made a lot of money betting against the Saints.
Browns - I like the line. They looked good against the Ravens, and I don't think the Cowboys have the weapons on offense to make this a blowout, even if they do win.

Others I considered for the last spot:

Rams - I think Atlanta gets a lot of the Vick Factor going their way for the line, I think this game is actually a pick'em. Being on the road made me shy away though.
Steelers - Coming off a win against an improved Raiders team, and meeting a Ravens team that got crushed. Wasn't impressed with their offense and their reliance on Hines Ward however, and the Ravens might have revenge factor going for them. Tempting line though.

[bugstud]

Bugstud picks:

$400 - New Orleans -7
$300 - Redskins -3
$200 - Jets -3
$100 - Cowboys -4

Making plays based on who sucked last week, and primarily KEN friggin' Dorsey! Flame and fade away

[AdamK]

$400 Bengals
$300 Cowboys
$200 Rams
$100 Cardinals

[bosoxfan]

$400 - Broncos -3
$300 - Patriots -8
$200 - Lions -3
$100 - Titans -1.5


Broncos - that little guy is fast
Patriots - can you say 17
Lions - when was the last time they were the favorite?
Titans - i hate the colts and thier stupid kicker. i predict 0-16

[wuwei]

Jets $400
Redskins $300
Seahawks $200
Vikings $100

Can't believe I've got 4 road teams here...

[jpg777]

Better than last week, guaranteed!!!

$400 Bengals
$300 Redskins
$200 Colts
$100 Bucs

[NoChance]

<font color="blue">$400 Raiders
$300 Jaguars
$200 Bengals
$100 Steelers </font>

[justin D]

400 Broncos
300 Rams
200 Bengals
100 Chiefs

[Kevmath]

$400 Rams +2.5
$300 Patriots -8
$200 Bears +9
$100 49ers +7

Kevin...

[judgesmails]

Falcons -2.5 400
Vikings +3.5 300
49ers +7 200
Texans +3 100

[Bob L]

week 2
1. Titans -1.5 $400
2. Bucs +3 $300
3. Eagles -3.5 $200
4. Chiefs -6 $100

[kdog]

400 Jets -3
300 Broncos +3
200 Colts +1.5
100 Redskins -3

I like almost all the road teams this week. Which means it's +EV for you guys to bet all the homers. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Rutis]

$400 Redskins
$300 Colts
$200 Lions
$100 Jets

[johnd192]

400 Jets
300 Packers
200 Broncos
100 Chiefs

[TradeRounds]

400 Cowboys
300 Jets
200 Redskins
100 Texans

~Cowboys D will look much better this week at home. Their offense IS vastly improved from last few years.(pass,pass,pass, and mix in some runs on their left side)
~Pennington.
~Portis. Only way Giants cover is if both QBs play at same time. Even then its a coinflip.
~Lions bandwagon is filling up quick. Texans should win this outright but I will take the points to boot.

[Easy E]

The color thing was funny the first time, but be original, you bumpkin! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Easy E]

welcome to the show

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
?
Titans - i hate the colts and thier stupid kicker. i predict 0-16

[/ QUOTE ]

You should LOVE them- they keep handing games to your team!

(oh, wait, you got nailed when they covered, didn't you?)

[Big Al]

400: Cowboys -4
300: Lions -3
200: Giants +3
100: Vikings +3 1/2

Big Al

[bosoxfan]

i did. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[jwvdcw]

$400: Arizona
$300:Washington
$200: Chicago
$100: Jacksonville

[J.A.Sucker]

I accomplished my mission last week, beating Scalf. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Here's this week's picks for Dynasty to put his bankroll on:

$400: Tampa (+3) at home vs Seattle (How am I getting points here?)

$300: Rams (+2.5) at Atlanta.

$200: Broncos (-3) at Jax

$100: San Diego (+3) at home vs. the Jets.

[Byrn]

$400 Broncos
$300 Jets
$200 Colts
$100 Rams

[UncleRemus]

$400 Cardinals
$300 Jets
$200 Cowboys
$100 Lions

[FloppedFlush]

$400 Broncos +3
$300 Rams +2.5
$200 Bengals -4
$100 Redskins -3

[Wake up CALL]

$400 Cowboys -4
$300 Lions -3
$200 Giants +3
$100 Vikings +3 1/2

I thought long and hard about picking the same teams as you for the rest of the season Easy E, just so we would tie and you would never have bragging rights. /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif Then I thought I'll just go down in flames all by myself!

[Porcupine]

$400: Redskins -3
$300: Broncos -3
$200: Steelers +4.5
$100: Vikings +3.5

[Smackdab]

$400 Cowboys -4
$300 Bears +9
$200 Patriots -8
$100 Chiefs -6

[Easy E]

You might end up down here in the depths with me- your ego couldn't take that!

[Barry_G]

$400 Cowboys -4
$300 Jets -3
$200 Vikings +3.5
$100 Redskins -3

[natedogg]

400 Cowboys -4 (in my defense, I already touted this game BEFORE big al's shoe in was posted!)

300 Rams + 2.5
200 Jags +3
100 Skins -3

If we could only pick totals... this week has two totals that are super soft. Practically free money, I'm telling you.

natedogg

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
If we could only pick totals... this week has two totals that are super soft. Practically free money, I'm telling you.


[/ QUOTE ]

And those would be???

[precision]

$400 Jaguars +3
$300 Rams +2'
$200 Cowboys -4
$100 Saints -7

[Aces McGee]

$400 Steelers +4.5
$300 Dolphins +4
$200 Colts +1.5
$100 Vikings +3.5

So, I'm more of a sports guy than a betting guy, and maybe my picks reflect that. But here are my thoughts:

<font color="red"> Steelers +4.5 </font> : The Ravens have to prove to me that they can score 4.5 points in a game before I'll believe that they'll beat a team by that much. And their lone offensive weapon, Jamal Lewis, has struggled recently against Pittsburgh, if memory serves, which it might not. Then again, he had done really well against Cleveland, and look what happened last week...okay, now I'm just overthinking things.

<font color="red"> Dolphins +4 </font>: I can't believe how much action the Bengals are getting. The Bengals! Their defense is suspect and their quarterback is starting his second career NFL game. Miami's defense is a lot better than New York's. And I think the Fins offense will be better this week, with Feeley having a full week of practice as the starter, and Gordon a full week of practice, period. Plus, it's the Bengals, not the Titans.

<font color="red"> Colts +1.5 </font> Only thing keeping from putting this game higher is that I'm not thrilled about betting against McNair at home in a big game. But Indy played a lot better offensively than their 24 points last week (3 red zone turnovers, I believe). Meanwhile, Tennessee looked bad against Miami, and Brown is banged up. They were a lot worse with Smith carrying the ball in the second half last Thursday.

<font color="red"> Vikings +3.5 </font> I don't like picking a game on the basis of half a point, but I don't like any of the other lines, and I see this as a 38-35, last-team-who-has-the-ball-kicks-the-game-winning-field-goal-on-the-final-play type games.

[Papa_G]

$400 Raiders
$300 Bengals
$200 Cowboys
$100 Steelers

[B00T]

$400 JETS
$300 REDSKINS
$200 CHIEFS
$100 RAMS

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif..lookout boyz, i am hot at the pix this week..i guarantee i do better than last week..

400 indy +1.5
300 dallas -4
200 jest -3
100 houston +3

gl

cya at payout window..

gl

/images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[swimfan]

Because of a really slow day at work, here are our cumulative picks up through scalf...sorry for the format

Team/Money/Times Picked

Jets /4800/16
Cowboys/4500/14
Redskins/3300/13
Rams/2800/11
Broncos /2800/10
Lions/2100/8
Bengals /2000/8
Patriots/1500/5
Colts/1500/6
Saints/1300/4
Vikings/1200/9
Jaguars/1000/4
Steelers/1000/5
Cardinals /900/3
Bucs/800/3
Raiders/800/2
Packers/700/3
Bears/700/3
Texans/600/4
Chiefs /600/5
49ers/500/3
Titans/500/2
Bills/500/2
Browns/400/2
Giants/400/2
seahawks/400/2
Falcons/400/1
Dolphins/300/1
Chargers /200/2
Eagles/200/1
Ravens/200/1
Panthers /100/1

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif thanks for your work swim

gl

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BellyBuster7]

$400 Chiefs
$300 Broncos
$200 Colts
$100 Bengals

Thanks!

[pudley4]

$400 Packers
$300 Cowboys
$200 Chiefs
$100 Jets

[MrDannimal]

$400 - Rams (getting points? Atlanta could barely beat San Fran)
$300 - Steelers (Ravens only even with Pittsburgh the last two years, on the road, giving 4? Boller stinks, too.)
$200 - Packers (owned Carolina on the road, will do the same to still gelling Bears at home)
$100 - Lions (much better at home, Rogers' injury not as bad with Williams to step up)

[challenger84]

Broncos -3.0 $400
Rams +2.5 $300
Redskins -3.0 $200
Colts +1.5 $100

[swimfan]

thanks, np! u2 - can't imagine getting too much worse for ya... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Michael Davis]

My picks, though I have already been mathematically eliminated.

$400 Lions
$300 Steelers
$200 Bears
$100 Colts

[Easy E]

ye gods!

[Easy E]

Don't give them TOO much credit for one week!

[beerbandit]

$400 Chiefs
$300 Packers
$200 Patriots
$100 Broncos

Cheers
Beer

[Dynasty]

$400 Redskins -3.0
$300 Bengals -4.0
$200 Colts +1.5
$100 Bills +3.5

[MicroBob]

$400 - Cincy -4
$300 - Dallas -4
$200 - Jets +3
$100 - Rams +2.5

[Tuco]

$400 Cowboys -4.5
$300 Vikings +3.5
$200 Rams +2.5
$100 Jets -3

Sent from an email kiosk in Florence. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Tuco.

[MHoydilla]

400 Bengals -4
300 Cowboys -4
200 Colts + 1.5
100 Jets - 3

[LondonBroil]

$400 Colts +1.5
$300 Chiefs -6
$200 Rams +2.5
$100 Eagles -3.5

[New York Jet]

New York Jet +$400 (3-1)
For some reason, I was not on the results list for last week.

<font color="blue">$400 Dolphins +4.0
$300 Rams +2.5
$200 Redskins -3.0
$100 Colts +1.5
</font>

Take the Dolphin moneyline (+200).

New York Jet

[Easy E]

I like to see that kind of effort!

[Easy E]

If you're not going to PICK the Jets, I refuse to acknowledge your scores! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
New York Jet +$400 (3-1)
For some reason, I was not on the results list for last week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must have accidently deleted your entry- as I claimed last week, Week #1 kinks to work out (no chance that I'm just an idiot.... no way!) /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I've corrected the spreadsheet and inserted you back in for Week #1- sorry about that! Glad you mentioned it!

[eggzz]

$400 Colts +1.5
$300 Redskins -3
$200 Cowboys -4
$100 Eagles -3.5

[Easy E]

$400 Jets
$300 Broncos
$200 Cowboys
$100 Rams

The Chargers were lucky to win that game, in that they had a nice + turnover ratio

Same goes for the Jaquars... and THAT was against the BILLS

I would have picked the Cowboys higher, since I was looking at this game earlier in the week- but I refuse to use the Shoe-In of the Week in that manner (betting it, however, I have no compunctions against whatsoever- let's see if Big Al can net me another 4 units THIS week!)

The Rams game was pretty ugly last week, but I'm not convinced Atlanta is for real

[Jman28]

$400 Broncos -3
$300 Jets -3
$200 Browns +4
$100 Bills +3.5

[tolbiny]

My picks for week 2

400 browns +4
300 broncos -3
200 cardinals +8
100 Titans -1.5

[Barry_G]

$400 Cowboys -4
$300 Redskins -3
$200 Jets -3
$100 Vikings +3.5

[CarlSpackler]

400 Jets -3
300 Cowboys -4
200 Rams +2.5
100 Chiefs -6

[Easy E]

56 brave souls- we gained a few new ones, lost a few more than that from last week.

[MrDannimal]

Pretty table: Lookie! (http://www-personal.umich.edu/~dannimal/week2.html)

Misc stats/ramblings:

- Oh, how the mighty have fallen: After massive piling on Baltimore last week, they're like the guy from Can't Buy Me Love after the school finds out he paid the hot girl to like him. Just one pick this week.

- No fear. We have 3 road favorites in our top 5 (both by # of picks AND $$).

- It just occurred to me that it might be interesting to see how our top pick does as a suicide pick. Last week, Minnesota romped. This week: Cowboys.

I'll edit this post Tuesday or so with results of the masses.

[Easy E]

Unless I count wrong, weren't the Jets picked 10% higher than the Cowboys?

[Lori]

According to that page the Jets have less people picking against than the Cowboys making them bigger winners for the picks.(blame my 400 for that, and with Baltimore cleaning up, I like it the Browns even more)

Lori

[MrDannimal]

I lack clarity. The Cowboys were picked 24 times, which is what I was basing it on. The Vikings were picked 28 times last week, and also had the most money laid on them to win. This week, the Jets had more money put down by less people (22).

You could make an argument that one of the other metrics is better, but since the idea hit me out of the blue as I was posting this, and not as the result of some data mining, I'm sticking with the original. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I could also have bad stats. I'm not double-checking or putting too much effort into this, it's just a fun thing to look at, and being off in a couple of spots doesn't hurt the general picture.

Editted to add: I managed to start my original stats post here, then copy/paste it to notepad so I could look at other posts (last week's stats to see what I included...), continued typing in notepad and then posted what I had originally entered here. Then I closed the notepad window without saving. Why? I'm an idiot.

I don't remember what all I threw out, but it was mostly the top picks by $$ (Cowboys, Jets, Redskins, Broncos, Bengals) and least picked by $$ and/or picks.

Also, teams picked by 33% or more (19+): Jets, Cowboys, Redskins and 25% or more (14): Brocons, Bengals, Rams, Colts.

Editted again!

I'm a moron. E is right, the Jets were picked more, and would be the "Suicide" favorite. I have them backwards in my first edit above, the Jets were picked more times for less money, which is how I justified the Dallas "pick".

Also, I found the text I thought I lost (or most of it). Who'd a thunk that Office had a useful feature?

Anyway, here's what I had, or most of it. Not re-inserted or editted to make sense. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

--

Again, these aren't guaranteed accurate, because it's hard to do with 4 other things going on (making picks, roto rosters, watching ESPN...).

Sally Fields (You like me, you really, really, like me!):

Cowboys - 22 picks for $6,900
Jets - 24 picks for $6,400
Redskins - 19 picks for $5,100
Broncos - 16 picks for $4,600
Bengals - 14 picks for $4,000
Rams - 16 picks for $3,900
Colts - 14 picks for $3,300

Boy Bands (Nobody likes them):

Panthers - 1 pick for $100
Ravens - 1 pick for $200 (once bitten, twice shy)
Chargers - 2 picks for $200 (Nobody's buyin it)
Eagles - 3 picks for $400
Seahawks - 2 picks for $200
Giants - 2 picks for $400
Falcons - 1 pick for $400 (a very brave soul, indeed)

[Lori]

It's a worthwhile page, I like it.

Lori

[Porcupine]

xx

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Boy Bands (Nobody likes them):

Panthers - 1 pick for $100
Ravens - 1 pick for $200 (once bitten, twice shy)
Chargers - 2 picks for $200 (Nobody's buyin it)
Eagles - 3 picks for $400
Seahawks - 2 picks for $200
Giants - 2 picks for $400
Falcons - 1 pick for $400 (a very brave soul, indeed)



[/ QUOTE ]

We need to to better than this guys and gals. Look at the teams that were picked the least, a collective 5-1 so far. I guess I'm glad I have the Eggles tomorrow for a hundy.