Playing Big Slick Is Very Puzzling To Me - Thoughts, Please

TJ Cloutier said in a nutshell that in order to win a tourney, you have to win with big slick but also learn to beat it.

The following 3 hands all occurred in last night's PP 30+3 MTT:

Hand 1: Hand for hand, 9 away from the money. With 200/400 blinds and an above average stack of T4705, I got Ah Kc in BB. EP2 who is tight with T2825 raised to T600. Player to his right went all-in with T999. Folded to SB, another tight player who got me covered, called. What's my play?

Hand 2: Blinds of 800/1600, 9 Players. I got Ac Kh on the button. EP3 (T16900) who is solid and one of the only 3 left from the original starters on this table raised to T2900. Player to my right, same in Hand 1, went all-in with T5385. What's my play?

Hand 3: Blinds of 1500/3000, 9 players with 56 left. With a stack of T26720, I got AcKd and opened for T9000 UTG. Folded to CO who just moved to my table went all-in for T2415. Folded to me. What's my play?

These hands have been driving me up the wall and seemed to be the humps I cannot overcome to get to the final table albeit I have been cashing in quite regularly in these MTTs.

I wish to solicit the opinions of the experts out there and will post the results later. Thanks in advance.

[Bernas]

Hand #1

I fold. Too many people in this pot makes AK a lot weaker.

Hand #2: You didn't say what your stack size was. If you are covered or close to being covered I fold this here. Still not an optimum situation.

Hand #3: This is the situation you have been looking for. Heads up AK is a pretty big hand. You have to take some chances if you want to make the big money (final table) and this is a chance where you probably have the best of it. Good place to stick all your money in. Is it safe to assume that you missed a digit in this hand? If you raised 9000 his 2415 all in wouldn't leave you with any decision. Did you mean 24K? Even still this is the place to get your money in.

[swimfan]

Hand 1: Little confused - if blinds are 2/4, how can EP2 raise to 6? Anyway, you're in the BB, there's 2,600 in the pot on you. You have 4,700, the pot's pretty big relative to your stack. I would push here...there's plenty of overlay for a coinflip, you dominate most hands, and you may get it heads up with the SB. Calling is bad because you're out of position and makes post-flop decisions much more difficult. Folding is worst option of all - given your description, you're getting 6.5:1 odds to call. I don't care about sliding into the money.

Hand 2: Again, not sure how player can raise to 2900 when blinds are 800/1600. Critical pieces if information missing are stack size, payout structure and current place. Since the initial raiser has around 10x BB, think I would move all-in here. If you are covered by EP3 (nc - MP1?), you're under 10x BB and need chips so push. If you have EP3 covered there's plenty of overlay so I'd push. Hmmm, maybe the info is not so critical.

Hand 3: I'm going to guess and say you meant to type 24,150. Anyway, you have <10x BB, I'd just push immediately as opposed to 3x raise. If you are able to steal with 2.5x BB raise, then maybe that play is alright, but I would immediately call an all in.

[Bernas]

Hand 1: I can't see him having this heads up. Not with 3 people in this pot arleady for over 1000. I am assuming he meant raised 600 not raised to 600 as that would be impossible. Why gamble here? He is probably a dog going in as one of them probably has a pocket pair, and another probably has an Ace. I give him 5 outs at the most to win this hand. Save your money here.

After reading one of the responses, these were the blinds:

Hand 1 100/200
Hand 2 400/800
Hand 3 750/1500

I mistook the stakes for the blinds. Also, my stack in Hand 2 was T10515 and raiser got me covered.

[swimfan]

Even if it doesn't get heads up, there will be a side pot. SB clearly does not have AA/KK, and you have the open raiser covered. As a new post says, the blinds are 1/2. The pot's 55% of your stack, huge overlay if you wind up a small dog. The amount of chips poster has is substantial enough for folding equity. Majority of the time you're either a small dog or big fav to win, and if called there are two pots you may win. Thinking you only have 5 outs to win is a little weak, you can win AK unimproved.

[Bernas]

OK, so if the blinds wer 1/2 and the raise was only to 600 you are right that there would still be a very good chance to get this heads up. Or at least a split pot.
However I don't think it is week to think that he only has 5 outs. I think you have to put one of them on a pocket pair. You can't always think you have the best of it with AK. I am not saying that it would be a huge mistake pushing here, I do think it is a bordline play though and without having anything invested in this pot already I would lean towards folding.

The hand I agree with you on is Hand 3: This is a must push here.

[swimfan]

This changes things a bit...

Hand 1: Same as my prior advice.

Hand 2: Becomes a little more read dependant, all-in or fold are both correct. The all-in may cause open-raiser to fold, though may be difficult since the pot's offering about 2.7:1. Which is why a fold may also be deemed correct, and is read-dependant.

Hand 3: 6x raise seems kinda large. A re-raise all-in from a substantial stack when I raised UTG to me would suggest AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ or JJ. Maybe TT. I would have raised 3x, and would have folded here because you have an ok sized stack and reason stated before. With 6x, the decision becomes a bit more dicey, but I may call now since I'm getting 2:1. And the aggregate odds of the specified hand range would be around even to the 2:1 pot odds.

[swimfan]

I understand what you're saying. I think you have to allocate a percentage as to the number of times you only have 5 or 6 outs, and the number of times you dominate a hand. Add in what you expect folding equity to be with a push, and you have a little game theory to play with. To only think you have 5 outs is playing a little weak (no offense intended) when there are a wide array of hands that may be getting played here (ie: open raiser may be stealing, SS needs to make a move so all-in, SB is getting odds to call so call...).

Also, you're getting 3.25:1 to call, although it doesn't quite close the action. That's why I (still) don't think you can fold in this situation...

Hand 1: I was not thinking of just getting into the money but I was leery of both SB and EP2 who are both solid and thought that I was facing at least one but possibly 2 pocket pairs and folded. As expected, EP2 called. Flop was 8s Kh Jd /images/graemlins/frown.gif. EP2 pushed, SB folded. Heads up between original all-in player and EP2.

Turn and river were 3d Ts. All-in player showed QsQd, EP2 had 6d6c. I would have won the coin flip.

Hand 2. I folded again, original raiser called. Heads up. Board was 6h 2h 8h Ah 8d. /images/graemlins/frown.gif. Won by all-in player with Kd Ks. I missed the train again.

Hand 3. Time to make a stand, I called. Board was 9d Qh 6s 8d 4h. Villain tabled 8h8c. I got torpedoed this time.

The very next hand, I went all-in with JdJs and lost to AQ when another Q fell on the turn. Knocked out #54.
/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[JARID]

The gamble would seem to be in hand three where he is putting it all on the line against an equal stack.

-Jarid

[SossMan]

i completely agree with swimfan's analysis.

hand 1 should be a pretty easy push, IMO. Lot's of overlay and you WILL likely get this heads up with a hand that you likely dominate. You don't necessarily have to be up against a pckt pair here (though you probably are).

hand 2 is close, but I would lean towards folding. Pushing isn't horrible either, though.

[willie]

well in retrospect you stayed out of big trouble on hand 2.

last night i folded kt from the small blind with a smallish stack to an ep minraise.....kid showed tt. rabbit hunt revealled an akk flop......but still, i sensed trouble or domination and stayed out of a hand that i would have gotten really lucky to have won.

ak is difficult, check the sklansky chapter on it...it's an awesome hand, but it really is difficult to always make the correct play with it, and i have an awfully hard time folding it.

[Bernas]

I think you had to gamle at hand 3, at this point in the tourney if you are wanting to get into the big money.

I don't like his all in here with 88, Way to vulnerable if I were him.

Surely I would like to win the big money. To play for 3-4 hours and net a few bucks is not worth it. The good news is that after I busted, I played 2 tables of 2-4 and made $260 in an hour and a half. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Potowame]

Kinda a good rule of thumb that I go by with AK.

Pushing ALL-in with AK, to a raise or First to act is never bad IMO. Of course you run into AA,KK sometimes.

Over pushing A small stack push and a smooth call is usually a good move also.

Calling a All-in that has you covered with large stack is not the best idea.