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chill888
09-15-2004, 03:30 AM
I don't really agree with this rule.

As I understand it (and i may well not understand it). But I believe people mean that if you have less than 10x BB and are going to bet then you should push.

While usually I agree with the advice given by the posters whenever they cite this rule, in a S&G 10x BB remaining is IMHO a very big stack.

For example if the Blinds are 150/300 with 5 left and 3000 chips I can often steal blinds with a 2x BB bet and can easily fold if raised. If i have 3000 chips I certainly am not going to push marginal hands but I may try and steal - depending on opponents.

Am I misunderstanding this advice? I think a very important S&G skill is steal-folding. That is, trying to steal and having the discipline to give up when beaten. And one rarely has more than 10x BB as a S&G progresses.

Some may call this weak tight, but I disagree. Pushing too often when you have a healthy stack is a recipe for going broke.

Sorry if I have misunderstood the rule,

gl

durron597
09-15-2004, 04:17 AM
I think it's table dependant. If 2xBB raises is consistently taking blinds, then it's fine to raise. But when you raise to 2xBB with A7o and I call in the BB with JTs and I out flop you, realize you probaby would have won the blinds had you pushed. Also when I push over you with 55 and you fold, realize I probably would have folded my 55 had you pushed.

Against good, aggressive players the small raise game doesn't really work. If the table is tight enough, then by all means do it that way.

Gramps
09-15-2004, 06:35 AM
I think there are situations that arise that are execeptions to the rule, but there's a lot of problems with a non-push raise when you're down to that amount of chips.

For example (assuming for a moment that you either steal the blinds, or are reraised and fold) you have to be successful close to 60% of the time (on Party Poker where there's no ante) for your mini-raise to be a +EV bet. That's a pretty high success rate requirement (and when you're under 10 BB, often the chips you're putting at risk have more tangible value per chip than the ones you'd gain if successful, so in reality that raises the +tangible EV threshold even more). And it's not like you have some huge postflop edge (the times you're just called) to lower that +EV threshold much.

When someone comes over the top of you and you fold, you may think "I am so smart, I would have been called and been a big dog," but a lot of the time (especially in the more aggressive games) people will come over the top of you with hands the would not call your push with - especially if you do that non-committal mini-raise crap a lot. You're the one people are going to look to make a stand against. They come over the top of you with hands they'd fold to a push, because your mini-raise gives them some fold equity.

As far as pushing with a healthy stack being a recipe for going broke - there's no rule that says you have to push marginal hands with 8-10 BB, especially at the 150/300 level on/near the bubble. Implicit in the concept is the idea that you're more selective in the hands you push the more chips you have...

...and let's say you have a healthy stack, 2500 chips at the 150/300 level, you try a mini-raise, and fold to a push. Then you pay the blinds. You've now dropped from 2500 to 1450 in a few hands without forcing anyone to show down a better hand.

And...even when you push a marginal/good-but-not-great hand and get called by a better hand...often times you're not that big of a dog. You'll still win a good percentage of the time when called.

In the scenario you describe (PP, 5 players left, you have 3,000), say you have A8s and there's a 3k stack and two 1k stacks still to act behind you. I think raising to 750 would be fine in that spot - if the big stack pushes/raises you fold and still have plenty of chips, but you wouldn't mind playing against an all-in short stack with that blind overlay.

chill888
09-15-2004, 07:04 AM
Gramps,

Thanks for a detailed sensible post.

I guess for me it is very player/image/situation dependent, but in general I hate pushing with out a great hand when I have a big stack and there are big stacks to follow.

I don't think we disagree much, but maybe I am looking for situations where small bets seem to have a very good chance of stealing - otherwise I just don't bother too often.

Don't get me wrong, I do an awful lot of pushing in these mid to becoming late stage. I just don't want to go broke with a healthy stack just trying to steal blinds.

That being said, I understand the concept of avoiding getting called with small raises when a big raise would of won right there.

this is of course a pretty complex subject and I will keep giving it some thought because I think there are marginal good ways and marginal bad ways to follow this advice.

gl

Irieguy
09-15-2004, 12:18 PM
The main problem with min. raising when you have 10BBs is that most other people are pushing really aggressively shorthanded. So, as durron mentioned, you will get re-raised all-in by hands that would have folded to your push.

Think of it this way, too: I would like it very much if my opponents min. raised my blinds shorthanded. Anytime I would like my oppoennts to play a certain way, that way is certainly wrong. Don't you think?

Irieguy

chill888
09-15-2004, 12:32 PM
Maybe and maybe it's a difference between different levels but I remain unconvinced.

For me it is not at all uncommon to have tourney were small bets win PILES of pots.

It's also not at all uncommon for me to have say 8x BB left make a 2x or 3x swing at pot - fold to a reraise and go on to win or cash. It's happened in 3 of my last 4 tourneys. (lol - ok small sample).

Note I also bet monsters similarly so it's not uncommon for me to bet 2x get raised and put a guy allin and show down a set or whatever. /images/graemlins/wink.gif this was clearly inserted to try and dissuade all of you who are searching for my name to exploit my weakness.

I think it's very player dependent and I spend a lot of time on player notes/stats. I also recognize that some of your advice is coming from very good players - so I certainly have not dismissed the advice - but I take puuting all my chips in the middle very seriously /images/graemlins/smile.gif

gl

Daliman
09-15-2004, 12:33 PM
I havent heard it as the 10BB rule, but it's not far off from my own 8xBB push rule, to which there are obviously exceptions, but it goes like this, basically

Lets say i have 1000 chips, I raise it 3x the BB to 300, and get pushed on by a player in the BB who has me covered. I now have to call 700 for 1350, not quite the 2-1 I like to get when calling.
At 900, the same situation has me calling 600 for 1250, which is the magical 2-1, but which i may want to fold from taking into account the texture of the play.
At 800, i'm calling 500 for 1150, a call which under normal circumstances i will make every time.
So, my theory on this is that I don't want to give anyone the thought I'm foldable to a reraise, but i don't want to risk all my chips too early, either. If I have 1000 chips, a raise and fold with a vulnerable hand is not disastrous, but from 800, a raise/fold leaves you 500. If you push on the next hand, you are giving the whole table a shot at calling with a great/good hand, plus the big blind has an opportunity to call properly with any single face card under normal circumstances getting 650 for a 400 call e.g. over 1.5-1, meaning the standard showdown, not often worse than 60/40, is now a profitable call.

I say 8x BB is the way.

kevyk
09-15-2004, 12:39 PM
Notice that the 2x-3x BB raise gives you a really effective way to play big hands, even if the table is aggressive.

One thing I detest about the "all-in to steal blinds" tactic is that you end up having to either play your monster hands like "any two" or do something obvious like limp or min-raise to get action.

When I raise 2x-3x, there is a certain chance that I'm trying to double up by baiting a super-aggressive player into a push.

It's also a fact that weak players will make loose calls to a raise of this type, which you can exploit with a well-timed flop push.

Obviously this is a situation-dependant topic, but I think a successful blind-stealing strategy should incorporate both tactics.

durron597
09-15-2004, 01:39 PM
Ah, but this analysis doesn't factor in what happens when they just call. This is especially bad when they have position on you, and your only option on the flop is to move in or fold (since the pot is your stack size).

I'm actually finding it's better to move in with stacks larger than 10xBB, when there are limpers. With one or more limper I tend to move in with stacks as large as 15xBB, sometimes even as high as 17xBB. This is with hands that I really would be happier not seeing a flop with, like A9 or KJ, but also some stronger hands, too, to mix it up.

Daliman
09-15-2004, 01:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Ah, but this analysis doesn't factor in what happens when they just call. This is especially bad when they have position on you, and your only option on the flop is to move in or fold (since the pot is your stack size).

I'm actually finding it's better to move in with stacks larger than 10xBB, when there are limpers. With one or more limper I tend to move in with stacks as large as 15xBB, sometimes even as high as 17xBB. This is with hands that I really would be happier not seeing a flop with, like A9 or KJ, but also some stronger hands, too, to mix it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

15-17x the BB, i think is a horrendous push. If you have a great hand, you're not getting any value from calls, if you're vulnerable, you're almost never going to be ahead to a caller, and are likely going to be dominated or worse.

Nick B.
09-15-2004, 02:55 PM
I have posted before that I think 10xbb is too much to push all in. I think that by pushing all in with 10xbb you will only get called by worse hands. You can also successfully steal blinds with raises that aren't all in which is helpful. I think that not raising all in will keep you from being in situations which you could have avoided, like blind stealing with a marginal hand. If you push in that is it, you can do nothing else, but say you raise 3xbb and somebody moves over the top and somebody else calls. How do you like your hand now? They both would not have folded. Also if you raise 3xBB somebody may come over the top of your AK with AJ and you have a very good chance of doubling up. So if your goal is winning the blinds, pushing is right, if your goal is to give yourself the best chance of winning a lot of chips, 3xbb is right.

durron597
09-15-2004, 03:12 PM
It works for me at the $10 level, where I will get loose calls anyway. You play at much higher level than I do.

Also, since the players are so much looser than I am, if I miss the flop I basically have to check-fold. Say for example I raise to 4xBB with AQo after one limper. A LAG big stack after me calls and the rest fold. The flop comes Kxx. How can I do anything other than check-fold here?

chill888
09-15-2004, 03:12 PM
Nick B - great post but i must say the VERY FEW times we have ever played against each other you pushed and pushed and pushed. No criticism - just an observation.

gl

Nick B.
09-15-2004, 04:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Nick B - great post but i must say the VERY FEW times we have ever played against each other you pushed and pushed and pushed. No criticism - just an observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not know your sn so I cannot fully defend myself. At the end of the tournaments (3 or less), then I usually just push, but outside the money I usually will wait until I am down to 6 or 7 bb before I fully push. Also I take into account how many chips the blinds have left. If they have only 8or 9bb I might just push to open.

chill888
09-15-2004, 04:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nick B - great post but i must say the VERY FEW times we have ever played against each other you pushed and pushed and pushed. No criticism - just an observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL While I meant what I said, i was just kidding around no offense meant.

CrisBrown
09-15-2004, 04:30 PM
Hi chill,

First, I prefer to think in terms of the One-Third Rule, rather than the 10xBB Rule. The One-Third Rule says: IF (a) you are going to raise; AND, (b) your standard raise would put more than one-third of your chips in play; THEN you should push all-in rather than make a lesser raise.

This is more complete than the 10xBB rule, as it also covers cases where you have a larger stack but would be reraising. E.g.: You have 25xBB and hold AKs. Able opens for 3xBB. It's folded to you. At this point, a standard, pot-sized reraise would be to 10.5xBB. That's more than one-third of your stack, so the better play is to push in.

The reason is that a bet of 10.5xBB leaves you no post-flop leverage. If he calls, there will be 18xBB in the pot, and you will have only 14.5xBB left in your stack. Thus, if he checks the flop and you push in, there will be 32.5xBB in a pot with him needing only 14.5xBB to call, meaning he will be getting better than 2:1 on his flop call. If he has any 8- or 9-out draw, he will be getting correct odds to call.

Note that the situation is even worse (for you) if he has only 20xBB left in his stack. Now, if you push in, his pot is 27.5xBB, with only 9.5xBB for him to call, giving him almost 3:1 pot odds. Now even a 6- or 7-out draw is worth a call, and in fact in terms of $EV he might be correct to call with only a 5-out draw!

If you make a lesser pre-flop raise, say, to only 6xBB (a minimum reraise), the pot will be 10.5xBB with him having only 3xBB to call, giving him 7:2 pot odds. So he'll have the right odds to call you with a wide variety of holdings, especially if he thinks you're willing to back your hand with your entire stack.

Because a less-than-pot-sized reraised won't protect your hand (i.e.: force him to make a mistake to call you), and a pot-sized reraise leaves you no post-flop leverage, if you are going to raise, then the 35% Rule says to push all-in pre-flop and get the best possible leverage for the pot.

Change the situation. Now you're in MP with 10xBB in your stack, holding AKs, and it's folded to you. In most cases, if you're going to open raise, it's probably better to push in rather than make a smaller open-raise. If you raise it to 3xBB, you have no post-flop leverage. That is to say, if you push in at the flop, any 8- or 9-out draw will have the correct odds to chase you. And, again, if the pre-flop caller has less than 10xBB in his stack, he'll probably be correct to call you with even a 6- or 7-out draw.

Poker is a game of mistakes. You profit by your opponent's mistakes, and they profit by yours. When you misplay your stack equity so that your opponent CAN'T make a mistake by caling, you're making a serious error that will leak money.

Cris

chill888
09-15-2004, 04:43 PM
Cris,

Tx for the well written clear post - it has me thinking.

My main question / problem is: I understand the logic when I have a great hand that is susceptible to being outdrawn. BUT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND the logic when a steal is in the cards. In my experience there are soooo many times when small bets win sooo many hands that steals are almost mandatory ... but they require an escape route. I just think these recommendations for such huge bets are Mana to my bankroll. Down to four, and everyone is thinking I better push? As I stated earlier, I cash so often after folding a good size bet - if this bet was all in I'd be broke. And again, I truly recognize that all in bets are never awful with few opponents but I think they need a degree of experience and caution.

And finally -- I also realize that some smart people are making these recommendations .. so I am listening.


I do really appreciate the time you took to post.

ThaSaltCracka
09-15-2004, 04:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
BUT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND the logic when a steal is in the cards. In my experience there are soooo many times when small bets win sooo many hands that steals are almost mandatory ... but they require an escape route.

[/ QUOTE ] The 10xBB rule or Cris 1/3 rule do not, and probably should not apply to steal situations. I would only risk that much of my stack if I wanted a call, and if I am gonna risk that much of my stack I might as well push. I like the 3xBB open raise for stealing as well.

CrisBrown
09-15-2004, 05:29 PM
Hi chill and Salt,

chill wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
My main question / problem is: I understand the logic when I have a great hand that is susceptible to being outdrawn. BUT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND the logic when a steal is in the cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Salt wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
The 10xBB rule or Cris 1/3 rule do not, and probably should not apply to steal situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that this makes you VERY easy to read. If you push in a One-Third Rule situation, you have a real hand. If you simply make a 3xBB raise, you're stealing. Your opponents will always know what you're up to, and that puts you in a very vulnerable situation. They'll fold to your real hands, and resteal your steals.

(Note: I'm assuming your opponents are good, observant players. Obviously, if you have evidence to suggest they are oblivious, you have more options.)

I think there are a few factors in play here.

First, you need to be looking for steal opportunities BEFORE you're in a place where a 3xBB bet would telegraph a steal. If you are consistently in situations where stack equity puts you in all-in-or-fold mode, there are a lot of other problems that you need to work on.

Obviously, there will be times when you find yourself in all-in-or-fold mode, even if you're playing well. I played a SNG yesterday where I set an opponent all-in at the turn as a 3:1 favorite, and he drew out. Oh well. That's going to happen 25% of the time. That left me with only 9xBB, so it was all-in-or-fold time. A few hands later, I pushed on KQs and the BB held AA, with the Ace of my suit. I flopped the flush, but the fourth suited card hit at the turn. Once again, oh well. That's poker. I'd play both hands the same way again.

Second, yes, the One-Third Rule is situational. If you're at a table where people will consistently fold to a minimum raise, then why risk more? But that's an exception to the rule. If you're consistently playing the exception, rather than the rule, it's probably a leak in your game.

Finally, most people try to steal more often than they really need to. As a general rule, if I'm catching a run of garbage, I'm happy if I can steal three times in two rounds, or four times in three rounds, i.e.: enough that I stay ahead of the blinds. By and large, you advance (i.e.: gain on the field) with your good hands, and use steals to tread water while you're waiting. If you're trying to advance on steals, that's probably a leak.

Cris

chill888
09-15-2004, 05:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]


The problem here is that this makes you VERY easy to read. If you push in a One-Third Rule situation, you have a real hand. If you simply make a 3xBB raise, you're stealing. Your opponents will always know what you're up to, and that puts you in a very vulnerable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]


NO. as I stated a few times I play big hands similarly and can often snap off peopole who think I'm stealing. THey can judge whether they want to call my bet but it will be risky.



[ QUOTE ]

First, you need to be looking for steal opportunities BEFORE you're in a place where a 3xBB bet would telegraph a steal.

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed. But this is my fundamental problem. 10x BB is a huge amount in a S&G once blinds start rising. My god with 3000 chips and 300BB the last thing I want to do is go all in near the bubble without a great hand.


[ QUOTE ]
Finally, most people try to steal more often than they really need to. As a general rule, if I'm catching a run of garbage, I'm happy if I can steal three times in two rounds, or four times in three rounds, i.e.: enough that I stay ahead of the blinds.


Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Stealing 3 times in two rounds is your idea of not stealing much? WOW?!? No biggie ... we play differently.

Daliman
09-15-2004, 05:50 PM
1/3 rule works out very close to my 8BB rule for preflop purposes first raise in, but I never really considered it too much regarding the reraise preflop, even though my play is usually similar anyways in this respect. I will use this consideration in my future decisions.

ThaSaltCracka
09-15-2004, 06:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem here is that this makes you VERY easy to read. If you push in a One-Third Rule situation, you have a real hand. If you simply make a 3xBB raise, you're stealing. Your opponents will always know what you're up to, and that puts you in a very vulnerable situation. They'll fold to your real hands, and resteal your steals.

[/ QUOTE ] I am gonna disagree. Here is a very common example.
Suppose you have about 3k in chips, blinds are 100/200. You can raise 3XBB with both good hands and steal hands. That same 3XBB raise would only take 1/5 of your stack(even less if you have a higher stack), thus a 3XBB should be very hard to read for even the best players, IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
As a general rule, if I'm catching a run of garbage, I'm happy if I can steal three times in two rounds, or four times in three rounds, i.e.: enough that I stay ahead of the blinds

[/ QUOTE ] I agree, but some players don't like this strategy.

patrick dicaprio
09-15-2004, 06:52 PM
i am sure others have said this ( i havent read the other posts) but making small raises is a disaster against a decent player much less a good one. in these situations a minraise is usually a tell that you want to be able to get away from teh hand. i usually come over the top almost every time unless i have absolute nothing and most times the opponent folds. if he is one who will not fold, then a stop and go is in order. either way if you are the opponent now you lose the blind plus your small raise.

Pat

ThaSaltCracka
09-15-2004, 07:03 PM
he's not talking about a min raise.

[ QUOTE ]
in these situations a minraise is usually a tell that you want to be able to get away from teh hand. i usually come over the top almost every time unless i have absolute nothing and most times the opponent folds

[/ QUOTE ] BTW, this is terrible play IMO, I would totally set you up and then re-raise you, especially if you do this to me atleast two times.

CrisBrown
09-15-2004, 07:20 PM
Hi Salt,

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you have about 3k in chips, blinds are 100/200. You can raise 3XBB with both good hands and steal hands. That same 3XBB raise would only take 1/5 of your stack(even less if you have a higher stack), thus a 3XBB should be very hard to read for even the best players, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but that's not a One-Third Rule situation, and that's all I was referring to.

Let's say the blinds are 100/200 and you have T1800. Here, a 3xBB raise is one-third of your stack, so if you're going to raise, the one-third rule says the better play is to push. Now, if you're going to push on your good hands, but raise to 600 on your steals ... your opponents will quickly know what you're doing. They'll fold when you push, and push when you bet small, and you're stuck.

I was referring only to One-Third Rule situations. Obviously, if you have 15xBB or more and you're opening, then a standard 3xBB raise is fine.

Cris

Gramps
09-15-2004, 07:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
My god with 3000 chips and 300BB the last thing I want to do is go all in near the bubble without a great hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get inside your opponents' heads for a moment. If the natural tendency is to not want to push all one's chips in without a great hand in this spot, one sure as heck doesn't want to CALL off all their chips in this spot without a monster. What hands are going to call you? What are the odds that someone is holding one of those hands behind you? It's pretty slim (unless it's a short stack making a stand on a wider range of hands). On top of that, some of the time you're called by a very strong hand, you'll suck out.

The goal in playing SNG's is to make the highest positive expectation play (in regards to ROI). Sometimes the best play in this regard can be more "uncomfortable" than an alternative play with a lower ROI expectation. It's a natural tendency to want to avoid emotional discomfort, and the brain can be very good at rationalizing this discomfort-avoiding behavior as the best +EV play (when it's not)...

...of course...that doesn't mean you start pushing like crazy with 3,000 chips at 150/300 (since even if you're leading in this spot, you're not going to have much of a gap on the 2nd chip leader). And maybe there's some spots where you steal-raise without pushing...and it's okay to pass up marginal hands...but I say put people to the test. Take advantage of your opponents' fear of being knocked out on the bubble. Something Cloutier talks about in his book (turning up the aggression when you get near the money), I think it applies in SNGs as well.

chill888
09-15-2004, 08:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My god with 3000 chips and 300BB the last thing I want to do is go all in near the bubble without a great hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get inside your opponents' heads for a moment. If the natural tendency is to not want to push all one's chips in without a great hand in this spot, one sure as heck doesn't want to CALL off all their chips in this spot without a monster. What hands are going to call you? What are the odds that someone is holding one of those hands behind you? It's pretty slim (unless it's a short stack making a stand on a wider range of hands). On top of that, some of the time you're called by a very strong hand, you'll suck out.

The goal in playing SNG's is to make the highest positive expectation play (in regards to ROI). Sometimes the best play in this regard can be more "uncomfortable" than an alternative play with a lower ROI expectation. It's a natural tendency to want to avoid emotional discomfort, and the brain can be very good at rationalizing this discomfort-avoiding behavior as the best +EV play (when it's not)...

...of course...that doesn't mean you start pushing like crazy with 3,000 chips at 150/300 (since even if you're leading in this spot, you're not going to have much of a gap on the 2nd chip leader). And maybe there's some spots where you steal-raise without pushing...and it's okay to pass up marginal hands...but I say put people to the test. Take advantage of your opponents' fear of being knocked out on the bubble. Something Cloutier talks about in his book (turning up the aggression when you get near the money), I think it applies in SNGs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]



NONSENSE:

I have no fear of playing a hand fast (emotional discomfort? uncomfortable??)
I have a fear of losing all my chips on the bubble for no good reason. Overbetting IMHO is a leak that works a lot of the time for small gains but eliminates you when it doesn't work.

I'm not afraid of my opponent trying to guess my play style and catch my bluff.....I'm worried he'll (or more usually she'll) just plain have a great hand. Patience patience patience. Of course you switch gears with less left. But what is the hurry with a good stack and 4 left.

I am (as a long term winning player) truly baffled. Why do you all want to push at every opportunity?


I played this morning where a fun guy started bitching that
I never called when he had AA KK AKs AQ QQ etc. Then he had A9s went all in and i called with KK. I had a nice stack no rush and avoided so many outnumbered situations and then beat him.

I know a lot of this advice comes from winners ----- but it confounds me.

GL

ilya
09-15-2004, 08:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried he'll (or more usually she'll)....

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

chill888
09-15-2004, 09:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried he'll (or more usually she'll) just plain have a great hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not complex. If I make a small raise, I am not that scared I will be reraised by a bluff - if i am i may call with a good hand or fold - no MAJOR harm done. I am more scared if I go all in that a guy will call for no other reason than that they have a good hand. It happens. It happens a lot. It's why i hate all these Push threads , not because I will get outplayed if i bet less but because i will bump into great hands if i bet more.

How many times have you tried to steal and bumped into AA KK QQ etc. I have A LOT and I am happier when i can fold to them than watch them eliminate me.


gl

PrayingMantis
09-15-2004, 09:07 PM
I think ilya was more confused about the "(or more usually she'll)" part of the sentence... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

ilya
09-15-2004, 09:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried he'll (or more usually she'll) just plain have a great hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not complex. If I make a small raise, I am not that scared I will be reraised by a bluff - if i am i may call with a good hand or fold - no MAJOR harm done. I am more scared if I go all in that a guy will call for no other reason than that they have a good hand. It happens. It happens a lot. It's why i hate all these Push threads , not because I will get outplayed if i bet less but because i will bump into great hands if i bet more.

How many times have you tried to steal and bumped into AA KK QQ etc. I have A LOT and I am happier when i can fold to them than watch them eliminate me.


gl

[/ QUOTE ]

I get that part, I promise! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I was just wondering about the "she" bit.

Gramps
09-15-2004, 10:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have a fear of losing all my chips on the bubble for no good reason. Overbetting IMHO is a leak that works a lot of the time for small gains but eliminates you when it doesn't work.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
How many times have you tried to steal and bumped into AA KK QQ etc. I have A LOT and I am happier when i can fold to them than watch them eliminate me.

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I'm certainly not advocating pushing for no good reason. There's players (some pretty high up on the PP leaderboard) who are pushing Axo or 44 into 3 players with 10 BB. That's just plain reckless the vast majority of the time.

You can be a lot more patient with 8-10 BB on the bubble, than you can with 5 BB. I'm usually very tight with 8-10 BB (especially if the next blind level is not double the exisiting blind level, but rather a 50% or less increase). My point is that if you're going to steal, I say the vast majority of the time it's +EV to push - especially if you plan to lay down when played back at after some smaller raise. You will get played back at by non-monster hands that would not call your push, and when you fold you've just given up a couple of orbits worth of blinds - now you'll have to make a move a lot quicker.

As far as getting called a "lot" by QQ/KK/AA and losing, I'd argue that the tendency is to "over-remember" those plays (see Joe Tall's bad beat thread). Certainly there's a possibility of running into one of those hands. My argument is that is happens rarely enough for the push to be preferable over the small-raise and fold to a reraise play.

Doing the (rough) math on what the odds are that a monster is sitting behind you with one or a couple of players to act. With one player behind you (factoring out your cards of course), there's about a 1.4% chance that someone is holding one of the big 3 pairs. Add AK and JJ to the equation, and it rockets up to 3%. Even with 3 players to act, it's only a around 9% or so that someone will hold one of those hands. And of the times someone calls you with one of the above hands, you'll still suck out a portion of the time...so you don't get called and beaten by one of those hands very often - and even with 10BB, you're getting a 15% return on your push if you steal the blinds. And often times with the 8-10 BB stack when you run into one of those hands, it's the short stack holding it and you still have a good stack of chips left if you don't suck out...

...but running up against a big hand sticks in the noggin unlike mini-raising, folding to a reraise, then having to push some marginal hand and not having a big enough gap to fold out a hand that calls and beats you. Or getting blinded down, etc. Not saying it applies in your case necessarily, but I think the sting of losing to the big hand on the bubble causes people to take the route with "safe out" even in situations wheret pushing is the highest +EV play. Kind of like playing the prevent defense in football to avoid giving up the long pass, but allowing the offense to go over the middle for 10-15 yards at will and march down the field on you.

About the only time I like the small raise with < 10 BB is when I have a hand that I'm willing to go all the way with against the shorter stacks, but there's one big stack behind me that I don't want to tangle with (who isn't reckless/super-aggressive and going to take advantage of my my show of weakness with a wide range of hands). Or maybe a blind battle against a super-tight BB. Or a big pair sometimes (even though it can be pretty obvious, I still get my fair share of action with it).

Jason Strasser
09-15-2004, 10:32 PM
Since I constantly cite the 10xBB rule, I feel obligated to defend it.

Here is what it comes down to for me. Sit and Gos are often not epic confrontations between two premium hands in the later rounds when it all is decided. They are generally 60/40 or closer confrontations, which ultimately decide the outcome.

With 10x the BB or less, you have options I suppose. You could raise the min with steal hands, but I think this stinks. For one, you are inviting people to come over the top with many hands (if you frequently steal this way). If you are the type to min raise with the goods as well, then you are also risking being busted by people who take advantage of the good price you have offered and see a flop from the blinds.

Min raising with big blinds and a 10xbb stack generally means you will steal blinds at a less frequent rate, but also risk less to do so. It also provides the chance for opponents to outplay you on the flop (which you will miss more than not). Frankly, I don't min raise because it always seems to put me in difficult situations. I know that difficult doesn't necessarily mean bad, but I prefer to avoid these kinds of spots.

So if you don't min raise, you are going to be raising 2.5-3xBB with 10Xbb stack. Now the problem arises here. You must raise 2.5-3xbb with all your hands, right? If you raise 2.5x-3bb when u are stealing, and do anything differently when u have the goods, then I think we could agree that this makes no sense. You must keep your opponents off balance.

If you raise 2.5-3bb with a stealing hand, and someone goes over the top for your stack, you are going to fold getting 13:7, or roughly 2:1 (usually 2+:1 because of the presence of blinds). Most stealing hands, on average, are worth this price.

The bottom line is this: If you steal enough using the 10xBB rule (you will have a higher rate of success than using any other method), then more often than not you will be doing enough work to keep your stack growing, or to at least keep it where it is. When you do get called, it won't always be by aces or kings, and it will often be an OK situation, one better than raising to 3xbb and then folding to a reraise.

The issue becomes a lot more clear with 8xBB. It should all be pushing and folding. I suppose 10xbb is kind of arbitrary, and I guess I would agree that maybe 9.5 is a better mark or so, but I really do not think raising less than all-in and folding is going to be a more +EV move than raising all-in to begin with. That is what it comes down to for me.

-Jason
P.S. The table image you will develop by using the 10xBB rule also allows you to comfortably raise all-in PF with AA. Just watch frozen replays.

chill888
09-16-2004, 08:32 AM
If people see me dropping down limits in the next few days be careful!! That lower limit chill888 will be using the 10xBB rule!!

gl

The once and future king
09-16-2004, 09:13 AM
Chill.

Me and you have clashed many a time. (Im pasty11 on stars).
I for the most part agree with you.

When I see people pushing, I think why risk X for Y when a smaller bet may have taken it down. If I have a stack x10bb I will look for steal opps to keep me healthy and wait for the Opp to take down the x10BB pusher with a premium hand.

However on Party I play it differently. One dosnt have as long to wait before those blinds escalate.

Patience isnt often possible at party and often have to get involved in a crap shoot where aggresion is more of a virtue than patience.

chill888
09-16-2004, 09:36 AM
Hey Pasty11,

Yep, we would have clashed a few more times but your record is worth avoiding. Glad to have at least one good player agree with me, i have felt like a voice in the wilderness here. I can see how it would make more sense at Party. I still believe it is VERY opponent and table specific.
For example, a small bet would work against you 'cause if you came over the top I'd know I was beat. /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Chelsea are looking good, if only they'd get rid of the three portugese guys and start playing Duff they'd be unbeatable.

gl

The once and future king
09-16-2004, 10:49 AM
Could you please post a little less.

Its getting a real drag annotating all your posts and then copying and pasteing them into your player notes on stars. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

eMarkM
09-16-2004, 11:27 AM
Others have made some good comments already that I won't reiterate. I will say that Cris' comments that this is more the "1/3 rule" holds true and that's what you should follow. So 1000 in chips with 3X BB raise of 300 into 100/50 blinds isn't quite 1/3 so 10X BB is an area where you can be a little more flexible. But usually 9x BB and below it's shove or fold time.

Also, to avoid committing that 1/3 in exactly the bubble type situations you describe, I will generally lower my steal raising amount. On Party, for rounds up to 100/50, I raise 3X BB everytime I open whether I have AA or stealing with garbage if I'm not in that 1/3-all-in zone. But when the blinds go to 100/50, where they now represent a good chunk of the remaining stacks, I generally pull back to 2.5BB. First, the Gap widens at this stage, people tighten up, and I find that a 2.5x raise takes it down just as often as 3x. Also, I get that little additional margin where I'm not committing that 1/3 where I would then just push and can get away from some additional hands.

Jdanz
09-16-2004, 01:28 PM
Everything comes down to EV right?

So when faced with the opertunity to steal with k9s we have to look at the EV calculations of the possible situations.

Now i'm not as good with math as a lot of the posters here are so i'll keep it basic.

We're not really arguing over whether you should be stealing right? just how much money to put in.

Given that:

you have 1800 in chips and the blinds are 100/200. The BB has you covered. There are 4 left in the Tournament.

we're struggling to define which is better to bet 600 or just push.

Given also we're folding to any raise when betting 600 and we're more likely to see a fold with the all in.

What is the range of hands the BB is going to push over top with? lets say a9-ak kq and any pair, i myself would possibly push with even less given that i find this to be a very weak raise, but for this example the above is fine.

I think we can assume if you push he'll likely fold a9, a10 and maybe aj, most likely kq, and pairs below 7. This is a BIG deal here, as you'll win 300 as opposed to losing 600.

So if they hold those hands pushing is WAY better then raising to 600 assuming these opponents can fold these hands.

The other hands. Now that you've put 33% of your chips in the pot, which hands are you not going to win at least 30% vs. Of all possible hands that could be pushing you you're only less then 30% vs AA, KK, AK, KQ, and A9 if they push with that. Any pair below kings and any ace other then 9 you're WELL over 30% and therefore should call the raise as it is +EV. especially getting 2500:1200 odds (your 600, the small blind, and the 1800 they reraised). or ~2.1 to 1.

Therefore..... They key to the xBB rule (whether 8 or 10 is debatable) is that you get to the point that if you're reraised your stack is laying the odds that you HAVE to call anyway, so you might as well fold their mariginal hands.

Essentailly if they may fold you're better off pushing, and if they're definetely not folding, after putting in 1/3 of your stack you should be calling anyway. Therefore you should push always, which gives the added benifit of people never being able to make a play on your raise.

For the sake of completeness I'd just like to say quickly why pushing like this when you're obviously going to run into situations where you're taking the worst of it is still the key to winning SNG play. You're esentially acting as Doyle Brunson in Super System. The point is you're probably not going to be called most of the time. You add huge chunks of blinds to your stack (at least 15% if this rule is in effect) and eventually when you finally are called maybe you are a 60/40 dog. The point is it doesn't matter if you're a dog then, because you're free rolling on all the blinds you've stolen. If you're opponent folds 75% of the time at 250/500 (on party i don't know stars format) you're likely correct to push with any two cards.

The added beauty is now they have no read on you and are as likely to call you when you have aces and push preflop as when you're pushing k9s.

It's not about the hands where you go in as a slight dog, it's about the hands you win without having to show your cards.

-JDanz

Jdanz
09-16-2004, 01:29 PM
oh by the way, the last line of the post is the point you're missing.

-JDanz

chill888
09-16-2004, 01:38 PM
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Given also we're folding to any raise when betting 600 and we're more likely to see a fold with the all in.
-JDanz

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Who said anything about that. I often make the same bet with a great hand and am happy to get called or raised.

All i know:
1. I play in countless hands where small bets win the pot
2. I am extremely tight in early games OFTEN going without winning a hand for 40 hands so when I bet good players notice.
3. I have played in countless tournies where I have folded to a big reraise and gone onto cash
4. I observe players closely and am would agree on pushing or folding agaînst a maniac or super aggressive player that would often raise me with just about anything.

To turn this question around: If i am a known winning player who has been playing tight all game, what hands are you guys goint to call or raise my small bets with?

Not a lot of hands IMHO.

ThaSaltCracka
09-16-2004, 02:39 PM
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1. I play in countless hands where small bets win the pot

[/ QUOTE ] so do I, but I also play in many where big bets win the pot.

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2. I am extremely tight in early games OFTEN going without winning a hand for 40 hands so when I bet good players notice.

[/ QUOTE ] sooo...... you assume to much, plus your 3xBB bet will allow more people to call you.

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To turn this question around: If i am a known winning player who has been playing tight all game, what hands are you guys going to call or raise my small bets with?

Not a lot of hands IMHO.

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First of all, how is anyone suppose to know your a winning player? Juts because you play tight? That right there is a dumb assumption already. Secondly, I would call you with more hands than you think. Especially if its four handed or three handed, and especially if I had the stack to do it with. Also, I would push on you if I was short stacked and I had any good hand or even any suited A or K, then what do you do? Usually any Ace or any pocket pair is all thats needed to win when its short handed, sometimes you cab get by with a K.