TPTK big pot on the river... what do do?

[GlemZurg]

If I bet the size of the pot then I'm almost all-in. So I'm thinking my options are: all-in, check/fold or check/call (depending on size of their raise).

How would you guys (and gals) have played this river?

Thanks,
Justin

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed)

SB ($17.65)
GlemZurg ($12.20)
UTG ($9.90)
UTG+1 ($9.90)
MP1 ($14.35)
MP2 ($9.60)
MP3 ($10.65)
CO ($30.05)
Button ($11.20)

Preflop: GlemZurg is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.05.
<font color="666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, GlemZurg checks.

Flop: ($0.35) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">GlemZurg bets $0.55</font>, CO calls $0.55, Button calls $0.55.

Turn: ($2) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">GlemZurg bets $2.2</font>, CO calls $2.20, Button calls $2.20.

River: ($8.60) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red">GlemZurg ???</font>

[wdbaker]

Charge them more on the flop, then when the draw misses push it all in unless you know something I don't...

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

[DBowling]

I favor check calling. No point in pushing on the river. If he missed his draw, he'll fold to your all in. He may, however, try to bluff at the pot, in which case youll win some money. He may have QT, but i think, in this case, youve gotta pay him off.

[GlemZurg]

I chewed on this play for a day now. Here are my thoughts on it.

At it happened I went all-in and he did have QT (although winning/losing this pot doesn't matter).

But it got me thinking:

By making pot-sized bets I was giving draws a bad deal. However QT's turn call ended up (due to my river bet) to have different pot odds then I expected:

his bet: 2.20
the pot: 4.40 (the other chasing a flush I think)
my final bet: ~$9

So due to my driving the river bet his pot odds (although he didn't know this) were really 13.4-to-2.2 or about 6:1 while his drawing odds were 46:8 or about 5.75:1 so I ended up giving him about even odds on his money.

If I checked to QT on the river, he may have gone all-in anyway. However, he may have been a timid player. Maybe he'd only bet $1 (perceived to be big in this game). In that case, I would have saved some bets and he would (going back in time) made his turn call a bad investment.

I reviewed the river play chapter of TOP and asked myself: "what other hands would have called my bet on the end?:

1. set
2. two-pair
3. straight
4. top-pair lesser-kicker

I think a middle or bottom pair would have folded to my heavy-handed river bet.
Obviously a busted draw would have folded to it.
I think (now) it's most likely a river caller would have two-pair or better.

So, against who I thought I was playing (two busted draws) my bet was a bad mathematically play: Two busted draws would always fold to my bet. So betting put money as risk with no extra reward.

In this situation I'll now mostly likely check/call.

Thanks for your replies guys,
Justin

[tripdad]

preflop:

CO calls, button calls....why are you not raising? if they have a better hand than you do, they are certain to raise themselves, no? or are they limping with AQ/better?

flop:

you bet enough to discourage draws (though i'm not so sure any amount is REALLY enough in these low limit games)

turn:

i would have bet $5 here. your overbet on the flop got 2 callers...why not try and get'em to do it again?

river:

against 2 players, and with one of the two draws you didn't want to come out there now, you should check/call a reasonable bet. if the action is like this: you check, CO bets $6.00, button raises all-in, you can safely fold.

cheers!

[schwza]

i would have bet the river. while you frequently hear "bet the pot on the flop and turn," the same doesn't really hold true on the river. in a $9 pot, i'd bet around 3 or 4. you want to get paid off by smaller pairs/kickers. this play is better if a raise would leave you obvious position - (i.e., against someone who bluff-raises too much, you have an easy call; against someone who would only raise the nuts you can fold).

[Roman]

am I the only one who undervalues TPTK out of position? No way I bet like 1.5x the pot on the flop and overbet the turn. I assume im behind at least on of the opponents after they both called pot sized bets on the flop and turn.