AJs in MP

[BreakEven]

How could I have played this better. At this point I do not have specific reads except that the table is passive.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: (7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[btspider]

check the turn. since you didn't, check the river.

[BreakEven]

It seems I over played this hand.

I originally was thinking that I had enough outs with an A or J plus a BD flush draw so I bet with 7 SB already in the pot. In looking at the hand, should I have discounted the J because they could help someone on a straight draw? If I reduce my 3 J outs to 1.5 and add 1.5 outs BD flush draw, them I'm at 6 outs for a 7.5 SB pot which is pretty slim at best. In terms of EV (which I don't fully understand yet) why would it be better to check versus bet on the flop?

On the turn, I "unfortunately" pick up a flush draw and bet it. The pot has 5 BB compared to a roughly 4:1 odds. Pretty slim margins again. In terms of EV, why is it better to check versus bet?

Check folding the river would have been the better play? If I had position, would check folding also be the better play on the river.

I hope this type of analysis becomes somewhat automatic with practice! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[DMBFan23]

when betting a draw, you should use the number of people calling as your gauge of value, not the amount in the pot. the amount in the pot is a sunk cost, you want to know if you're getting value on the amount of money you're putting in NOW...which you are, if enough people call your bet.

when calling with a draw you use the size of the pot...you may or may not be making $ on the money CURRENTLY going in, depending on the strength of your draw, but there is enough extra money in the pot (ie, you're getting enough of an "overlay") that you have to call.


however, one application of betting relative to the size of the pot...
using the size of the pot relative to your bet and the percentage change your opponent might fold is what I've heard called "folding equity"...if there are 5 BB in a pot, and my opponent will fold 3/4 the time I bet, it's profitable for me to bluff, etc.

[BreakEven]

I think DMBFan conceptually outlined the answer, but can anyone show me how to use the number of outs, Pot Odds and Pot Equity concepts to determine on the flop and turn why folding, calling, or raising may have the highest EV (or least negative)?

This is probably not a very interesting hand. The pot is not huge. No powerhouse hands are involved. But it seems to represent the type of situation that occurs frequently where good post flop play may be able to take advantage of a marginally +EV situation (or at least minimize loss).

I am not a great post-flop player so this might be a clear fold situation that is not obvious to me. It would still be interesting to see it explained in terms of outs, odds, equity. (I am reading that section in SSHE now.)

Much appreciated.