Bubble play

[Slappz]

5 people left, this is usually when i turn up the gas and get fighting for first so i figure this is a good spot to pick up a big pot. Who thinks this bluff is worth it? its a 10+1 SNG on party.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1685)
BB (t2053)
UTG (t840)
MP (t960)
Hero (t1217)
Button (t1245)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, Button calls t400, SB folds, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t1300) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets t817 (All-In)</font>,...

[NegativeEV]

There are 6 players left, not 5. This is important IMO as I generally see a big difference in play near the bubble vs. on the bubble, and the number of hands you see per revolution (i.e. hands seen before blinds are paid) is higher which is key.

You will find countless historical posts that explain that when your stack is less than 10xBB you have two decisions: push or fold. This hand illustrates why. You can't very well put in ~ 30% of your stack here without becoming pot committed, so if you are going to play, push preflop. The preflop push also gives the largest possible deterrent to your opponents when you DO NOT want a call.

I personally think this is not a good spot for a push as KJ is too speculative at this point in the game, so I fold preflop. I posted a similar scenario with Hero holding KQ yesterday, and the concensus was to push, but I'm still not convinced on that and I'm definately not in favor of a push here (absent a read that tells me button through BB will fold more than "normal"). I'd like to see other's thoughts on this.

The short story- read the historical posts that discuss the 10xBB requirement.

[Jason Strasser]

Oh my.

Push preflop it's not close. You have less than 10xbb.
-Jason

[Slappz]

Thanks, i didnt realize the 10xBB rule, i was usually just mini raising the blinds (100-200) incase i missed the flop, which is probably the wrong decision, but i didnt wanna go all in with KJo knowing that anyone who calls me will probably be favorite.

[Jason Strasser]

SNGs are not a good game for people scared of going broke /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Jason

[Sam T.]

I hate these situations. I have made it my policy to treat flops like this as if they are radioactive. The check from the BB means one of two things: either he has a ten or he doesn't. If the flop misses him, he checks. If he flops a set, he checks. Finding out which it is will cost you your stack.

Check-fold, and forget about it.

Edit: Didn't notice the issue with the stacks. Yes, push or fold PF.

[SmileyEH]

This is horrible. Push or fold preflop, no question.

-SmileyEH

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop it's not close. You have less than 10xbb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this is input I'm interested in. Given the fact that there are 6 players left (6 hands per revolution in which to find a better hand), Hero's stack is still relatively strong (i.e. not in desparation stage and not close to), and Hero is in CO with button and big stack BB still to act.... why is this a definate push?

My experience at the $11-$55 tables tells me that you are likely to get a call here with these stack sizes and 3 players left to act (particularly with the BB on a big stack with T200 in the pot). I don't have stats to support, but my feeling is that you will get called 30-50% of the time here at these tables. I think a push is +CEV here, but I don't think it is a large enough edge to justify elimination at this point. We are aiming to avoid slight +CEV plays that risk elimination in a tounrey setting correct (I'm talking about at the $11-$55 tables where we don't NEED to take small edges).

Thoughts?

[NegativeEV]

My very rough CEV calc would assume that you'd get called 40% of the time (per my 30-50% SWAG), and that you'd win 50% of the time when called (this assumes you'd get called by many more than the top 10% of hands, but I believe this to be true at the $11-$55 tables):

Win the blinds uncontested: .5 x T300 = T150
Win the pot when called by BB: .25 x T1300 = T325
Lose the pot when called by BB: -.25 x T1200 = (T300)

Rough, SWAG CEV: T175

This seems like too slight of an advantage to take at the $11-$55 tables as I think there are larger +CEV positions left to take given the circumstances in this hand.

Help me clarify my thoughts and please tell me how I screwed up this rough CEV calc.

[NegativeEV]

The original post is a scenerio I'm struggling with. I'm looking for some comments as to why my thoughts in the above post are incorrect and why this is a clear push. If it is clearly correct to push here, this is a leak I need to correct. I've posted other types of near bubble push/fold hands on this site and have been convinced by the logic of the replies that I was missing opportunities for "required" pushes- I suspect this is another one, but I can't get my mind around it yet.