What does this turn raise mean?

[joker122]

No reads.

Please refrain from preflop advice.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: (4 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

River: (9 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: 9 BB

[jrobb83]

I think there is a fair chance you're ahead here.

But the pot is too small to call, there is also a fair chance you are behind here. And when you are behind you are way behind.

And your preflop play was fine by me /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a fair chance you're ahead here.

there is also a fair chance you are behind here

[/ QUOTE ]
That clears things up.

[Befolder]

It looks like he might have thought you were trying to steal by representing a ten that you didn't have because you never bet on the flop.

You not folding told him you weren't stealing and he had to check the river with you because he probably had AJ-K.

Befolder

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like he might have thought you were trying to steal by representing a ten that you didn't have because you never bet on the flop.

You not folding told him you weren't stealing and he had to check the river with you because he probably had AJ-K.

Befolder

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn: (4 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

[Yeknom58]

What were you doing on the flop exactly? Were you going to CR? I think I like a bet on the flop.

The fact that the SB called 2 would scare me also but I think I still might call down.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
I think there is a fair chance you're ahead here.

there is also a fair chance you are behind here


That clears things up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know. /images/graemlins/smile.gif But there is really no way to tell what the turn raise means without a read on the opponent. And when you are behind you are much further behind than you are ahead when you are ahead.

[chesspain]

No way do I fold this turn, unless I have personally observed MP3 check through flops with TP/overpair when last to act /images/graemlins/grin.gif. His raise just looks so much like two club overcards it's not even funny.

[onegymrat]

Hi Joker,

1) He has the ten, therefore, you need to muck.
2) He has a high pocket pair and was trying to be clever to draw out a bet on the turn.
3) He has a flush draw (ie. A /images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif) and is semi-bluffing.
4) He is completely bluffing with nothing.

With no reads, it's very hard to play on. If you call the turn, you'd probably have to call the river. Mucking is not wrong.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Reasons that MP3 wouldn't bet the flop: He's got a PP under T &amp; he's a passive player. He's got overcards which missed. He hit a set &amp; is slow playing.

So when the T hits on the turn and you bet out, I think it's likely that he sees your bet as a steal &amp; he's trying to steal back from you w/ overcards (which he may also believe is the best hand atm). He may also have the flush draw, so this may give him a flush draw just in case you do have the Ten.

Unfortunately for you, SB calls. I can't see him having a T though. I don't see him checking trips on the turn. Assuming that any club or 4 overcards beat your hand, then you have to dodge 8 clubs &amp; 8 overcards (excluding the clubs). I think a call is warranted on the turn.

*Edit:
[ QUOTE ]
He may also have the flush draw, so this may give him a flush draw

[/ QUOTE ] - Ralph

[joker122]

.

[joker122]

MP3 shows AdQh and SB shows 5c6c. MP3 is good.

[sthief09]

flush draw? BS? I don't fold this

[joker122]

I've just never seen someone check a flop through with overcards when they are the pfr, have you? It looked like a strangley played big hand.

[sthief09]

that play indicates either nothing or a flopped monster

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
that play indicates either nothing or a flopped monster

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. So when he raises the turn doesn't that point towards the latter?

[sthief09]

actually, I posted before looking at the results and I was thinking the former. I'd estimate that your hand will be good at showdown something like 25% of the time. SB cold-calling makes it less likely. I'd say you have a 50%+ chance of beating each of them, which is where I get the 25% chance of beating both.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
What does this turn raise mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

That you folded the winner?

[TheHip41]

The only monster he could slow play here is TT.

That's the only PP I'd play that way.

[dejableu]

Admittedly, I've seen the results, but even without seeing them I'd say this was a no-brainer. You should have called.

You were closing the action on the turn and it was almost certain that it would be checked to the raiser on the river. Assuming the raiser bet, you were looking at $20 to win $110 ($40 preflop, $50 on the turn, and $20 on the river). That means your hand only needed to be good 15 percent of the time. If, on the other hand, it was checked through on the river, you were looking at $10 to win $90, and your hand only needed to be good 10 percent of the time. And don't forget that in 5 percent of the hands, you were going to spike a 7 on the river and be able to net a couple of extra big bets with a check-raise.

I think everyone would agree that you were going to win this pot at least 15 percent of the time...

[Garland]

While MP3's turn raise is in of itself not enough to scare me, SB's cold-call of the raise is. What's the chance that both are on draws?

I think the fold is fine.

Garland