Some bubbly hands for review - too aggressive?

[realbad101]

A couple of bubble hands that I recently played. I guess there's a fine line between aggression and patience on the bubble, did I err on the side of aggression in these?

The other players showed no obvious blunders over the course of the tournament, with the exception of only betting (or folding to) less than half the pot size bets.

These are party 5+1 hands (i know, i'm bottom feeding while i refine my tournament skills)

Hand 1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2480)
Hero (t1570)
UTG (t680)
Button (t3270)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t680 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t380.


Hand 2
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2330)
Hero (t890)
BB (t1510)
UTG (t3270)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t890 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t590.



Final Pot: t1780
<font color="green">Main Pot: t1780 (t1780), between Hero and BB.</font>

[dethgrind]

Hand 1: you should fold this. If he's pushing here with basically any two, other than complete unsuited garbage, you're about even money with your JTo. You need better than even money to call in this spot.

Hand 2: pushing is fine here. BB will probably fold a good portion of his hands. When he does call, your Q9o is strong enough to win a decent share.

Even though Q9o and JTo have about the same strength in a heads up contest (against other hands, not each other), these situations are very different. It is much, much better to be the raiser than the caller. Also, in the first hand you had 5 blinds and could afford to wait more than the second hand, where you had only 3.

When people speak of aggression on the bubble, they mean raising and betting. They don't mean calling.

[chill888]

Well I'm the one usually espousing super tight strategy but:

Hand 1: I'd happily call. Risking 380 for a pot of 1510 (680 x 2 + SB). If you lose you are in 4th but still have some chips and you have 3 hands until you are BB again.

If you win, you cash and now have a pretty big stash. Easy Call IMHO.

Hand 2. getting late you need chips. Sure. Push. But don't be surprised if you are called and lose. But you gotta do something at this stage. You have OK fold equity and with some luck could win if you are called. As always, I'd rather make my stand as the bettor not the caller.

gl

[realbad101]

As for the JT call, i was thinking along the same lines, i'm getting better than 3 to 1 for the call. But later I got to thinking...

1) If I fold I still am not the short stack
2) Even though I have the correct pot odds to call, in all likelihood he has the odds to double up and take the lead over me in chips and drop me down to a short stacked 4th

Still not sure what the correct play was (is)

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
You need better than even money to call in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No he doesn't.

[poboys]

You don't want to not be the shortest stack, you want to accumulate chips and take advantage of other short stacked players making marginal plays.

The pot odds are too good not to call here.

[SmileyEH]

Please, please, PLEASE keep folding JTo in the BB in this spot. When you do make it up a few levels and somehow find yourself on a table with me I will be truly grateful.

In all seriousness folding in that spot is absolutely criminal. 27o is good enough.

-SmileyEH

[dethgrind]

You're right. You can be a pretty big dog and still call profitably in this spot. Probably any two cards are good enough.

Getting 3 to 1 from the pot and still having reasonable chances if you call and lose is a pretty sweet deal when you're up against an essentially random hand.

[patrick dicaprio]

if the hand were suited i would call in the first hand, otherwise i would fold. on the second hand i would push here also and hope to get lucky.

Pat

[dethgrind]

I'm pretty embarassed about recommending to fold JTo after looking at the numbers.

If you fold, you have 1270 chips, and with the other stacks and the independent chip model, this is worth 19.6% of the prize pool.

If you call and lose you have 890 chips. This is worth 14.6%. If you call and win your share is 32.3%

So assuming your JTo wins 50%, your $EV by calling is .5*.146 + .5*.323 = 23.5% of the prize pool.

The difference between calling and folding is 4% of the prize pool, not even close. This is a huge amount!

Think about it like this: if you're playing 20+2 this 4% is $8. This is more than all but the very best players can expect to make on average per tournament. Damn.

[realbad101]

Thanks, sounds like calling is the play in hand 1 and pushing all in is ok as well in hand 2.

FYI - JT gets called by A3o and neither of us pair so A3o holds up.
Q9o gets called by KQo and he ends up making a straight. But I agree with the pack, a call and a push are ok. thx

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
In all seriousness folding in that spot is absolutely criminal. 27o is good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very, very, very, very important concept. The fact that you asked this question about the JT hand means you need to really look at your game. Don't pass on massive edges like this. Don't be scared to flip over a hand like 62o here, it is WAY correct.

JTo is not even close.

Q9o is good push.

-Jason