TB v BOS

[runninonmt]

P. Martinez is pitching at home. The book I've been betting at has the ML at -500. What's the best way to leverage a huge favorite like this? The NYY ML agains KC is -300. Should I roll them into a parlay or what? It just seems crazy to lay $500 to win $100. Any thoughts?

[wuwei]

Best way to handle that is to find another big favorite you like and parlay them. But... -500 is pretty crazy juice, no matter who's pitching and how bad tampa has been on the road against > .500 teams (and it's pretty bad).

Twins with Santana on the mound are a good parlay choice, or the Phillies.

[Rick Diesel]

Also some books let you bet on the favorites as -1.5 runs. That will certainly knock the money line down quite a bit.

Rick Diesel

[craig r]

First off, you need to find a different book. Because -500 is a lot more than most other books are charging. And even if it was -400, it would be too much. I am a huge boston fan, and I am thinking about fading them. You should not be laying this much wood on a baseball game. You are basically risking the ranch to win a small amount of money. There are much better spots. Just my two cents though.

craig

[scoop]

value would be on TB with that much juice anyway, but here's something interesting: BOS is 0-6 last last 6 games vs. rookie pitcher they haven't faced before which is the situation tonight. For what it's worth-

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/cool.gif i am betting the dog (t.b)+420 and -1.5 +665

and for real cash money..no 500 bets here..

boston loses tonite..big..

gl

jmho

/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[MicroBob]

I think it's a pretty unusual situation where you would want to take a favorite at -400 or more in a baseball game.

I think the value is with TB and I took them here.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a pretty unusual situation where you would want to take a favorite at -400 or more in a baseball game

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't think of a situation where you could possibly even consider laying this kind of wood. It's insane!

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif 5-2 t.b. with 2 outs bottom 9th..

hit batter; then walk..

good; give em a chance to tie it up on one swing..

but

the old blind sow found an acorn...

lol

gl

/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[MicroBob]

I agree.
If you have a Roger Clemens or Pedro-type pitcher who is having an amazing 23-2 year going up against a Mike Maroth-type of 5-20 season then I would CONSIDER -400.
But I suspect the line would be closer to -600 or -700 on this kind of mismatch.

But Pedro at 15-5 (or whatever he is) against a TB team that isn't THAT bad definitely doesn't qualify. Even the worst teams are going to win 33% of the time typically.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I suspect the line would be closer to -600 or -700 on this kind of mismatch

[/ QUOTE ]

No way! Baseball games just will NEVER be that lopsided no matter what the matchup is. You could take the world champions against any AA team and the spread shouldn't be that wide.

But this is what makes baseball betting so good /images/graemlins/smile.gif Most of those involved are so worried about who should win they forget about the line. You should look at the line and determine which side is undervalued. Instead most chumps look at the matchup and try to decide who will win. Regardless of the price! Baseball betting is nothing more than a simple arithmetic problem yet people are constantly trying to outguess it.

[MicroBob]

I think there were some sites that were giving Pedro in the -550 range yesterday.


[ QUOTE ]
You could take the world champions against any AA team and the spread shouldn't be that wide.


[/ QUOTE ]


I agree that it SHOULDN'T be that wide. but that doesn't mean that it can't possibly get that wide.


[ QUOTE ]
Most of those involved are so worried about who should win they forget about the line. You should look at the line and determine which side is undervalued. Instead most chumps look at the matchup and try to decide who will win. Regardless of the price! Baseball betting is nothing more than a simple arithmetic problem yet people are constantly trying to outguess it.

[/ QUOTE ]


I completely agree. That's why I am frequently taking some of these mostly unknown guys at +300 or better. Sometimes I pass on it....but when the line gets this wide you have to strongly consider whether this team has a 33% chance of winning. In most situations, almost any team is going to win at least this much.