Folding Equity?

[mullaney]

I keep reading about folding equity, but I'm not sure what that means. Could someone give an example?

Thanks.

[MLG]

a post I made in a thread over the summer about folding equity, hope this helps.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding Equity is usually not a specific calculation, because in real life (as opposed to artificially created example world) it is hard to pinpoint with any degree of accuracy how often your opponents will fold. So, if you were actually going to calculate your mathematical folding equity in a pot, you would need to calculate the range of hands your opponent could hold, and the percentage of time he will fold each of those hands if you bet.

It is much more important to understand the concept than it is to actually calculate a specific number in a given hand. The concept at its most basic level is that when you bet your opponents will fold their hands some times. When they fold their hands you will win the pot. That is what your folding equity is.

There are several important applications of this idea. 1, which we talk about all the time is with AK. AK (as is bemoaned on this board all the time) is behind every pocket pair. However, it is very hard for a hand like 22, 33, or even 88 to call a big bet. Thus, by playing AK strongly we increase the chance that a hand that beats us 50% of the time will fold (there are other reasons to play AK strongly, but this is the one that deals with folding equity). A second application is play draws. Lets say we flopped a low straigh-flush draw. We will make our hand and win the pot about 60% of the time here (9 flush cards + 6 straight cards = 15 outs twice), and with money already in the pot from preflop we will certainly be getting the correct pot odds to call if our opponent sets us all-in. However, if we can set out opponent all-in then a certain percentage of the time he will fold a hand that if we do not improve will beat us (perhaps bottom pair or two overcards). Thus, if we move all-in ourself we will win the pot 60% of the time when we are called, and we will win a smaller pot the times he fold (whatever percentage that might be).

Calculating this number is a judgement call, because we cannot really know what percentage of times our opponents will fold the range of cards he has. Correctly guestimating this number (consciously or subconciously) constitutes part of our feel for the game. The ability to do this separates the mediocre from the good, the good from the great, and the great from the world-class.


[/ QUOTE ]

[JayKon]

Well written.

[mullaney]

Thanks. That's what I thought, but I wasn't sure.