do i push here?

[housenuts]

i was in a 2-table SNG on Stars. down to the last 5. i'm in 4th chip position with about 2,000. 5th place has 1,500.

i'm in the SB and the blinds are 200/400. it's folded to me. BB is in 3rd chip position with about 4,000. I get dealt 33. What is the correct play?

[RiverTheNuts]

I would say that pushing is correct... youll prolly get called by any ace rag for it to be a coinflip... but a smaller raise here means that you basically have to go all in no matter what the flop is if he calls, and he knows this, so if he hits any pair or still has 2 overs postflop I doubt he folds to your all in

[chill888]

Probably push.

One important detail to remember is that the S&G pay out structure in an 18 seater at Stars is different than the 9 seaters.

Payout is 40% (1st), 30% (2nd), 20% (3rd), and 10% (4th), 0% (5th).

In other words when you are dowen to 5 left every time you move up one position you gain exactly 10%.

Net, hanging on for the last cash position isn't as valuable as it is in a nine seater - where moving from 4th to 3rd gives you 20% but 3rd to 2nd only adds another 10%.

You get more compensation for doubling up when on the bubble in the 18 seater and relatively small stacked. Net, it is MORE correct for you to go all in in your scenario than if there were 4 left and you were in a 9 seater.

gl

[housenuts]

i got called by KQs. he hit a king so i'm out with no money. now let me show some reasoning (i'm not sure if i came up with this after the play or before, but nonetheless)

the play was either to push or fold. calling wasn't really a good choice, at least that's what i think.

if i push let's say he calls 50% of the time. we will also simplify it by saying 50% of the time he calls, he will win. i realize he could have higher pockets, but we'll offset that by the fact he's a slight dog when he has overs, or could be calling with A2 A3.
So that means 25% of the time I'll double up, 25% of the time I'll be out, and 50% of the time I'll "steal" the blinds and antes.

Now, with the payout structure coming 4th isn't really a big deal, but jumping up higher would be nice. So of those times I double up I'd give myself a very good chance of coming in the top 3, especially since I'd be doubling through the 3rd place guy.

If I don't push I'd be very close to tied for last chip position and it would basically come down to who won the next pot that would take 4th. And would have to get lucky to get any higher than 4th.

and then of course 25% of the time i'll end up with nothing.

this all sounds like sound logic to me. does it make sense?

[chill888]

House:

1. Probably push
2. Under no circumstance call
3. maybe fold

Calling is awful with 33 as it is unplayable if you miss flop - and you will most likely miss flop and blinds are too high to waste. Pushing gives you a strong chance he will fold and an ok chance of winning if he calls.

People on this board "might" debate folding versus rasing but I don't think anyone will recommend calling.

GL

[Gator]

agree with push - agree with your logic - i think you get called closer to 40% of the time - which goes to support your decision even more. 50% seems high.