I am the fish sucking out on you

[prayformojo]

I'm in a mood to be flamed I think, so I'll post a borderline hand from tonight in which I chased a draw and caught on the river. The question is, were my two (ugh, yes, two) coldcalls justified by the pot?

Anyone who would raise this river instead of going for the overcalls is welcome to throw their two cents in too.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Mojo is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Mojo calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Mojo calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, Mojo calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Mojo calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

[bisonbison]

Your turn call is fine. I think BB will call a river raise, so I think I'd raise it.

[thirddan]

easy fold on the flop, you are not getting near the odds you need to hit your gutshot...

Turn call is ok, but you have to adjust for the possibility that it might be 3bet on its way around again...

And i would raise the river...

EDIT: PS. did you knock me out of the Party 5+1 last night, around 30th with QJ?

[BottlesOf]

His flop call is ok.

He is getting 13:2 immediately, but we know he's gonna get 7:1. He's also got a back door flush draw, so we can say he has 5.5 outs. Getting 7:1 this is fine, you can make up the fraction of a small bet on later streets.

[thirddan]

pleh, i counted wrong, next time i will have to take my shoes off too...

[elindauer]

Your flop call is thin, but with your backdoor flush and straight draws I think it's OK.

Going for overcalls on the river doesn't make sense. They've already called two cold a bunch of times. Raise with the nuts and give the chance to do it again. You might get lucky and be 3-bet. At best, you gain 1 BB, but at worst you lose 5. You have to be very confident the other players won't call 2 to make that the right play.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[daveymck]

I dont really like calling the flop and certainly if I was the next to act after the raiser then I muck, but the fact the a couple of people called after the raise you have more reason to stay in. The odds may be there but from a hand evaluation point of view you are looking to have to hit a 9 to have a hand here.

[prayformojo]

When I posted this hand, I started wondering about an additional partial out on the flop. I have the gutshot and the backdoor flush draw, but don't I also have half of a backdoor straight draw? Simply counting the straight as a gutshot with four outs ignores the fact that I would also have the nut straight if AQ fell on the turn and river. There is about a 1.48% probability of this happening (8/47*4/46 -- if my math is wrong on this, by all means tell me), which suggests it should be worth about 3/4 of an out. Has this been discussed anywhere, or am I just rationalizing?

[daveymck]

It is probably covered in the finding hidden outs section of SSH mus read that bit again, and I guess it would add to your outs, but adding .75 of an out (if this is the right calculation) doesnt change my feeling in the post above.

[prayformojo]

SSH doesn't explicitly talk about a backdoor straight draw when you already have a gutshot, but the "counting outs" chapter is my inspiration for this possibility.

I am curious about your statement that I need to catch a 9 to have a hand. Do you mean that the backdoor flush should be dismissed altogether?

[daveymck]

No it should not be discounted, it should be included in your evaluation of your hand, but I still think in essence you are looking for a 9 as the realistic chance to improve your hand.

[Bigdaddydvo]

I might be old school, but I don't give much weight to backdoor draws when it's two bets to me on the flop in an unraised pot and I don't even have a pair to start off with.

Nice runner runner catch, but I feel calling that raise is a long term loser. But, occasionally making plays like this to piss off the opposition has merit, too.

[PokerNoob]

And that is not to the nuts and is subject to redraw against. My personal feeling here is that you've tossed in a lot of chips to make your draw, you really must raise the river.

[Bob T.]

Strictly speaking, if you know that you will be able to see the turn for 2 small bets, you probably have enough to coldcall on the flop. The problem with coldcalling, is that you don't have a guarantee that you won't have to put in more money on the flop. At least in most 2-4 games, players behave when they get raised, so that makes your play more likely to be correct.

On the other side of the coin, if you knew that the SB would three bet, then you can't play here, so you can see how important it is to three bet top pair here from the SB as a regular practice because it makes these kinds of draws unprofitable.

With all of the coldcalling that has happened so far this hand, I think that raising the river, is probably better than going for overcalls.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[MRBAA]

Bob makes an excellent point, as usual. You may be facing three bets on the flop and a bet and raise on the turn, which destroy your implied odds. I think this is a fold against aggressive players and a very thin call against passive ones.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn call is fine. I think BB will call a river raise, so I think I'd raise it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem I have with raising the river is you might not get calls from the two left to act. If you feel they will call one bet, but not two then I'd just call as you'll get one more bet out of it. Even if one will call and the other fold, you're still getting the same amount.

Additionally, if you call, one of the others raises, that opens the door to even more bets for you.

Befolder