Aggro out of control

[Bigdaddydvo]

Lately I've noticed a lot of posts advocating people to push awfully hard with marginal holdings, ignoring outs that are counterfitted, and even coming up with bizarre "half-outs" to continue on well past the point that they should have folded. Perhaps this is the avant garde of online, and I could be missing the boat (my copy of SSH is on the way, so I'll soon find out). I'll toss out an example where my "contrarion" thinking is way out of line with a lot of the theory i read about on this forum.

3 limpers to me on the button. I have 2 black aces and raise. The blinds fold, and the 3 limpers call.

Flop is 8-9-10 of diamonds. EP bets out, is raised, and cold called by limper #3. I fold. Come on, let me hear it.

[MoreWineII]

I probably fold too, if not on the flop, then to any aggression on the turn.

[IndieMatty]

With no reads of "maniac" I don't think you lose anything by folding here.

[Malcom Reynolds]

[ QUOTE ]
...even coming up with bizarre "half-outs" to continue on well past the point that they should have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with a half-out? Small stakes says to value a backdoor flush as 1.5 outs. This is because it will roughly add the right probability to draw to a backdoor flush. A lone backdoor flush will need around 33 to 1 to draw to.

In a previous post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=462860&fpart= 1&PHPSESSID=), Ed made an example that if there was a million dollars thrown into the pot, would you fold 27o? Of course not. You'd call down to the end with nothing. An extreme example, but the point of counting half outs and whatnot is that when the pot is large, if you value draws like backdoor flushes and overcards as 1.5 when the flop is devaluing all three outs, you are more accurately representing your chances to win, and when the pot is giving you enough money to chase those draws then you chase.

If all you have is a backdoor flush, but the pot is giving you 33 to 1, you call. Chances are it won't be that big so in most situations if that's *all* that you have you fold.

[ QUOTE ]
ignoring outs that are counterfitted,

[/ QUOTE ]
So in small stakes, Ed gives an example of how you can't value your overcard outs as a full three outs as you still could be beaten. So he values them at half an out each, if you think you are beaten half the time when you hit an overcard and you are ahead half the time when you hit an overcard. And sometimes the advice with marginal holdings is to raise to clean up outs and improve your chances of winning. When you get small stakes, check out the example on page 271, with A/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif on the button. All you have is a gutshot, overcard and a backdoor flush.On the flop of K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif it's bet, called and raised to you. With 8-to-1, Ed's advice is to reraise. He gives a great and clear explanation of why this is correct.

If the purpose is to win pots, then yeah, fold when you have a low chance of winning and put money in when you are the heavy favourite. If the purpose is to make money, then you play +EV. That means when the pot is large, play loosely and when the pot is small, play tightly. The odds and equity give you a mathematical basis to decide whether the pot is big enough for your longshot draws or not.

Edit: counterfitted outs discussion