A Commonly used misunderstood, missapplied concept

[Jdanz]

A lot of people in this forum talk about going from tight to loose as you get closer to the button, in many situations i hear people on this forunm advocate, pushing any two cards. I understand that it can be plus EV in certain situations, but i also believe that very few people on this board, including myself, can accurately identify them.

So in what circumstances do we think it's a good idea? What criteria should be used when evaluting if it is the correct play? Some say if you have less then 4x the BB you should go all in blind UTG, some say if it's folded to you with the same stack on the CO or Button.

Let's talk about when and where people should be pushing with obviously weak values.

Let's talk about which any two cards are better? Weak ace? 89 suited?

Anyway i believe that this is an important concept that could certainly use a little discussion.

-JDanz

[SossMan]

Jdanz,

you're going to hate my answer, but here goes:

it depends.

yuck, i know, but there's no secret formula for these things. It really is a function of so many factors, that each situation is truly unique. Post some situations and try to determine how each of the factors influenced the correct decision.

[Jdanz]

Hey Soss, first off, thanks for responding to so many of my posts today, i do appreciate it.

Secondly, obviously i know there isn't a formula, but i'm thinking players much more experienced then i can at least list some of the things they think about when deciding to make this play. When i actually run into these situations i'll try to post, but i've often heard you or Davidross say something like

"well here i'd be pushing with any two cards near 100% of the time."


I'd like to talk about situations that are less obvious, but in what sort of situations would the above statement be true?

-JDanz

[GrinningBuddha]

It depends on (in no particular order):

1) Your table image
2) The blinds' tendencies (loose/tight)
3) The blinds' stacks (small/medium/large)
4) Your position
5) Your stack
6) Your position in the tournament wrt the payouts
7) Your cards

Ideal situation: You have a medium to large stack on or near the bubble, it's folded to you in late position and you have two tight blinds who are trying desperately to hang on until the money. Licence to steal granted.

Terrible situation: You have a maniacal image with a small stack and have 2 loose gambling players behind you with big stacks in the blinds. Licence revoked.

Typically you'll find yourself somewhere between these extremes, but what you actually have in your hand is much less relevant than how likely it is that you're going to be played with. If you estimate that you will be called more than 25% of the time, look for cards like suited connectors, Aces, suited Kings and pairs (duh).

Just some thoughts, certainly open to debate.

[fnord_too]

I think going all in UTG with 4BB with any two is horrible.

I think calling all in from the BB with any two when you have less than 2BB left is almost automatic (there are times when I wouldn't. I'll ellaborate below).

Here are the factors I look at:

How likely I am to get a fold. I don't like pushing with any two if folding is at all viable if there is zero chance of folding my opponent(s). I may have lower standards with which I will push due to my stack size, but I really want some folding equity if I am going to be pushing with garbage cards.

Relative chip position. If I am the shortest stack at a final table, for instance, there are a lot more hands I push than if I am second shortest stack.

Blind to average stack ratio. If the blinds are say 10k/20k, and I have 40k in chips, but the average stack is only 60K, I am much less inclined to push because the blinds are putting a lot of pressure on everyone. This means that people will be pushing with a lot of inferior holdings, (and calling with a lot lesser holdings, read that lowering folding equity). A lot of times when the blinds get really high like described, you will see people drop in rapid succession. If you are short, but there are a lot of other people feeling the heat, I would tighten up some and let others mix it up. Obviously you can only do this so long, but usually when you are at this point, someone dropping out means a significant increase in pay. If I get a decent hand (doesn't have to be good, just decent) I will certainly push, but I don't think forcing things in this situation increases my cashing EV.

And, because it is so important it gets mentioned again, folding equity. If I think my push will win the pot preflop x% of the time, I will push with any two. What x is is situationally dependant.

Really, I push "with any two" pretty infrequently. I may do it if I have a big stack in LP and there is a smalish (but not ready to give up) stack in the BB. David Ross posted a hand not long ago with an unusual all in for 1.9XBB with two callers (him in the BB) where it may have been right to push with any two due to the dead money it would create and the low downside assuming he would fold the two callers (which was highly likely).

Without good folding equity (sorry to keep harping on this, but it is uber important) pushing with any two is generally bad.

Oh, here's a big exception: You have everyone left in the hand outchipped by a lot near the bubble (and no one has shown strength, i.e. raised or suspiciously limped before you). In this case you can get away with outright thievery because people really hate being knocked out close to the money. (OK, it's not really an exception since you have such good folding equity here. I swear that is the last time I will use that term this thread.)

(Favorite WSOP quote, as close as I can remember it: To Gus Hansen "Gee Gus, why would you keep reminding us that we are almost in the money?" )

[familyteeth]

this is the guts of poker, figuring out the situation.
FWIW, for practice, i use SNG's and Sklansky's TPFAP system, to gain experience in various "off" hands with short stack situations.
i simply divide the blinds into my stack x 10(regardless of the number of players left)and use Sklansky's hand rankings accordingly, then i figure out what i like and don't like and try again

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, for practice, i use SNG's and Sklansky's TPFAP system, to gain experience in various "off" hands with short stack situations.
i simply divide the blinds into my stack x 10(regardless of the number of players left)and use Sklansky's hand rankings accordingly, then i figure out what i like and don't like and try again



[/ QUOTE ]

nerd /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[gergery]

Great post to start the thread. I really like Grinning Buddha and Fnord’s posts and totally agree. I think stealing is totally and completely about folding equity. You need them to fold a large chunk of the time, preferably before the flop, but if not, then definitely after the flop if they miss.

So how tight the players after me are is the key consideration. I use pokertracker, and will target players with a VPIP at 16% or less (basically how many pots they’ll play) or when I’m in MP or later. I’ve come across players 1-3 spots to my left with VPIPs under 10% and I will raise every single un-entered pot. I’ll also look at the blind defense numbers in pokertracker, combined with the ratio’s of went to showdown vs. won showdown – some have looser standards to enter a pot, but keep higher standards if its been raised. Also, watch out for players on a rush or who’ve won a few pots recently.

Position is also key. I prefer stealing in MP+3 or CO+1, as you’re late enough that maybe people don’t have big hands after you, but they’ll give you credit for a good hand. I almost never steal from EP, and will only do so with a hand that can like a flop, such as 22 or 65s.

Stack size to blind ratio – you want to steal when stacks are around 10-25xBB, so your opponents need to risk a reasonable chunk of their stack to play. When blinds are smaller, you get too many Implied Odds Lovers and they’re not worth the risk. When the blinds are bigger, people are more likely to get desperate or have good odds.

Cards only matter if you’re called/raised. And if you are, it’s usually by big cards or small-medium pairs (vs big pairs you’re screwed anyway). So I like hands that play well against that: medium suited connectors are best, as you are probably 60:40 vs. an AJ kind of hand, and may be even money vs. 55 type hand. Medium connectors next best, partially because they are well hidden if hit. Two big cards without an A is also good (ie. KT), as many players will call with weak aces so you’re close. Sometimes total crap is ok too, because you’re less likely to make a bad decision on a flop that you get some of.

Table image. Obviously you want a tight image, but in some circumstances it also affects what cards you’ll steal with. If it’s shortly after I fold a big hand or lose a big pot, I’m more likely to want to steal with high-card value cards (ie A7), as my opponents will think I might be tilting and are more likely to play at me weaker holdings. I will not steal even with medium strength hands (KTs from CO) if I’ve been in a bunch of pots recently.

Raise size. I’ll calibrate my raise size not only to where I think I can get a fold, but also to put the most pressure on others. If my opponents have <~9xBB, then I’ll just go allin, as any reraise of my 3xBB almost gives me odds to call anyway, so don’t encourage them by having them think I’ll fold.

--Greg

[familyteeth]

ha, FWIW probably so, probably so.
BTW sng's are still a quick and cheap option to put all this sound advice into play