The 'Forgery" Argument Debunked

[Matty]

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/printout/0,8816,1101040920-695873,00.html

[ QUOTE ]
Bill Glennon, a technology consultant in New York City who worked for IBM repairing typewriters from 1973 to 1985, says those experts "are full of crap. They just don't know." Glennon says there were IBM machines capable of producing the spacing, and a customized key — the likes of which he says were not unusual — could have created the superscript th.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/09/11/authenticity_backed_on_bush_documents/

[ QUOTE ]
But specialists interviewed by the Globe and some other news organizations say the specialized characters used in the documents, and the type format, were common to electric typewriters in wide use in the early 1970s, when Bush was a first lieutenant.

Philip D. Bouffard, a forensic document examiner in Ohio who has analyzed typewritten samples for 30 years, had expressed suspicions about the documents in an interview with the New York Times published Thursday, one in a wave of similar media reports. But Bouffard told the Globe yesterday that after further study, he now believes the documents could have been prepared on an IBM Selectric Composer typewriter available at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, US News and World Report has released an analysis of Bush's Guard duty and has come to the conclusion that he did not earn...at least legitimately...his honorable discharge: http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/040920/usnews/20guard.htm

[Matty]

And Rasmussen is showing the race back to within 1 point (actually 0.8 points)- a statistical tie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I anxiously await their electoral vote update.

[eLROY]

It's not just possible to create exactly-spaced duplicates of those memos in Microsoft Word. It's probable to do it by accident, without paying any mind whatseover to formatting.

Whereas you are going to have to make a herculean effort, to produce on an old typewriter on 8-inch paper, a match for the document you will make by accident on Microsoft Word.

When you turn on Microsoft Word, you get that memo, millimeter for millimeter. When you turn on a Selectric using random-size paper, and mechanical paper feed, you have to win the Powerball lottery to get a document you could have accidentally created on Microsoft Word.

If you poll a nation of 300 million people, you are certain to find some stupid "expert" who thinks it's possible, and another 100 million people who think it is possible specifically because they aren't experts. But that is much easier than finding any evidence there was ever a "PO Box 34567," finding a reason why this man would write and file these memos, or finding the original source of these memos, for whom appearing on a milk carton would be an upgrade.

For crying out loud, Grey, I could produce a document with actual period typeface right now, and then where would you be? You'd certainly be stuck nodding your head to some idiot somewhere, offering the "possibility" my document was real. Where, and with what defense against believing anything is anything, does your open-mindedness leave you? What document is there any likelihood of anyone producing that you would ever say no to?

If "could have come from a typewriter" equals "could be accurate," then I am going to have to write in magic marker to ever arouse your suspicion. But I am going to have to devise a magic marker with a tip so outlandish, that you will conclude that such a shape could not possibly have been conceived of by an Earthling. Does such a tip shape exist? What is your defense, Grey, against being played for a fool? Where do you set the bar, what verification do you demand?

This whole thing is so bizarre, I have to expect some kind of odd scheme on part of the people who produced the forgeries. I think their goal was to create documents so obviously forged, to draw attention to the ideas in them which they don't believe are forged. The longer Republicans point out it is a forgery, the more opportunities Democrats get to put Ben Barnes on TV talk shows.

[ QUOTE ]
Dan Rather: This story is true. The questions we raised about then-Lieutenant Bush's National Guard service are serious and legitimate," he said. "Until and unless someone shows me definitive proof that they are not, I don't see any reason to carry on a conversation with the professional rumor mill

[/ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile, insisting the documents are real is a way for Dan Rather to play the victim, rather than the perpetrator (and avoid having to give up his DNC sources).

[Zeno]

So how is John Kerry going to stablize and help Iraq and fight the 'war on terror' in a better and more effective way than George Bush?

-Zeno

[sameoldsht]

How about the documents that were dated a year and a half after the person who supposedly wrote it retired?

Sorry, it an obvious forgery...

[Utah]

Unfortunately, you have debunked nothing.

Its seen as pretty universal that these docs are a forgery. At best, there is so much doubt about them that CBS never should have aired them.

CBS has offered up no defense to the documents. It cant or wont:
1) Produce the original documents
2) Produce the source
3) Find an expert to verify the documents authenticity
4) Produce a typewrite capable of typing this

One of the center pillars of the credibility of the story, Hodge, says he was duped by CBS and that he believes the documents are fake.

Please, give me one expert that believes these documents are real

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
How about the documents that were dated a year and a half after the person who supposedly wrote it retired?

Sorry, it an obvious forgery...

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

One of the center pillars of the credibility of the story, Hodge, says he was duped by CBS and that he believes the documents are fake.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, Dan Rather's "preponderance of evidence" makes me laugh, and not in a good way.

[MaxPower]

I don't know about the documents, but it is pretty clear that Bush did not fulfill his obligations with the National Guard. That US News story is pretty clear.

It is very possible that Bush's behavior was typical of those in the National Guard at the time.

I don't really care about this, but it does reflect on his character. I am voting on what he has done for me lately.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
Its seen as pretty universal that these docs are a forgery.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true.

[ QUOTE ]
3) Find an expert to verify the documents authenticity

[/ QUOTE ]

You will never be able to find an expert to verify that the documents are authentic. This is true whether the documents are real or fake. It is an impossibly high standard, especially given that the author is dead.

[ QUOTE ]
4) Produce a typewrite capable of typing this


[/ QUOTE ]

May experts have said the IBM Selectric could have been used to type the memo and that the model was in widespread use at the time.

[ QUOTE ]
ne of the center pillars of the credibility of the story, Hodge, says he was duped by CBS

[/ QUOTE ]

CBS tricked him into lying?

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
So how is John Kerry going to stablize and help Iraq and fight the 'war on terror' in a better and more effective way than George Bush?

-Zeno

[/ QUOTE ]http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/national_security/

For more details click the links on the right side of that page.

Like this one: http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/national_security/newthreats.html

It's hard to get detailed plans like these out to the public in 30-second ads, but the information is definitely out there if you want to find it and I'm sure Kerry will take the debates as an opportunity to detail his plans.

[adios]

From the article:

[ QUOTE ]
A review of the regulations governing Bush's Guard service during the Vietnam War shows that the White House used an inappropriate--and less stringent--Air Force standard in determining that he had fulfilled his duty.

[/ QUOTE ]

No explanation whatsoever, what regulations are we talking about and what reasoning is behind this analysis. Sorry I don't necessarily take the word of reporters in this analysis.

I posted this link which basically refutes the article in question:

Bush and the National Guard: Case Closed (http://www.nationalreview.com/york/york200402180840.asp)

To wit:

THE MOVE TO ALABAMA
The records show that Bush kept up his rigorous schedule of flying through the spring of 1972: He was credited for duty on ten days in March of that year, and seven days in April. Then, as Bush began his fifth year of service in the Guard, he appears to have stepped back dramatically. The records indicate that he received no credit in May, June, July, August, and September 1972. In October, he was credited with two days, and in November he was credited with four. There were no days in December, and then six in January 1973. Then there were no days in February and March.

The change was the result of Bush's decision to go to Alabama to work on the Senate campaign of Republican Winton Blount. With an obligation to the Guard, Bush asked to perform equivalent service in Alabama. That was not an unusual request, given that members of the Guard, like everyone else, often moved around the country. "It was a common thing," recalls Brigadier General Turnipseed. "If we had had a guy in Houston, he could have made equivalent training with Bush's unit. It was so common that the guy who wrote the letter telling Bush to come didn't even tell me about it."

The president's critics have charged that he did not show up for service — was "AWOL" — in Alabama. Bush says he did serve, and his case is supported by records showing that he was paid and given retirement credit for days of service while he was known to be in Alabama. The records also show that Bush received a dental examination on January 6, 1973, at Dannelly Air National Guard base, home of the 187th (January 6 was one of the days that pay records show Bush receiving credit for service). And while a number of Guard members at the base say they do not remember seeing Bush among the roughly 900 men who served there during that time, another member, a retired lieutenant named John Calhoun, says he remembers seeing Bush at the base several times.

What seems most likely is that Bush was indeed at Dannelly, but there was not very much for a non-flying pilot to do. Flying fighter jets involves constant practice and training; Bush had to know when he left Texas that he would no longer be able to engage in either one very often, which meant that he would essentially leave flying, at least for some substantial period of time. In addition, the 187th could not accommodate another pilot, at least regularly. "He was not going to fly," says Turnipseed. "We didn't have enough airplanes or sorties to handle our own pilots, so we wouldn't have done it for some guy passing through."

On the other hand, showing up for drills was still meeting one's responsibility to the Guard. And, as 1973 went along, the evidence suggests that Bush stepped up his work to make up for the time he had missed earlier. In April of that year, he received credit for two days; in May, he received credit for 14 days; in June, five days; and in July, 19 days. That was the last service Bush performed in the Guard. Later that year, he asked for and received permission to leave the Guard early so he could attend Harvard Business School. He was given an honorable discharge after serving five years, four months, and five days of his original six-year commitment.

The records indicate that, despite his move to Alabama, Bush met his obligation to the Guard in the 1972-73 year. At that time, Guardsmen were awarded points based on the days they reported for duty each year. They were given 15 points just for being in the Guard, and were then required to accumulate a total of 50 points to satisfy the annual requirement. In his first four years of service, Bush piled up lots of points; he earned 253 points in his first year, 340 in his second, 137 in his third, and 112 in his fourth. For the year from May 1972 to May 1973, records show Bush earned 56 points, a much smaller total, but more than the minimum requirement (his service was measured on a May-to-May basis because he first joined the Guard in that month in 1968).

Bush then racked up another 56 points in June and July of 1973, which met the minimum requirement for the 1973-74 year, which was Bush's last year of service. Together, the record "clearly shows that First Lieutenant George W. Bush has satisfactory years for both '72-'73 and '73-'74, which proves that he completed his military obligation in a satisfactory manner," says retired Lt. Col. Albert Lloyd, a Guard personnel officer who reviewed the records at the request of the White House.

All in all, the documents show that Bush served intensively for four years and then let up in his fifth and sixth years, although he still did enough to meet Guard requirements. The records also suggest that Bush's superiors were not only happy with his performance from 1968 to 1972, but also happy with his decision to go to Alabama. Indeed, Bush's evaluating officer wrote in May 1972 that "Lt. Bush is very active in civic affairs in the community and manifests a deep interest in the operation of our government. He has recently accepted the position as campaign manager for a candidate for United States Senate. He is a good representative of the military and Air National Guard in the business world."

Beyond their apparent hope that Bush would be a good ambassador for the Guard, Bush's superiors might have been happy with his decision to go into politics for another reason: They simply had more people than they needed. "In 1972, there was an enormous glut of pilots," says Campenni. "The Vietnam War was winding down, and the Air Force was putting pilots in desk jobs. In '72 or '73, if you were a pilot, active or Guard, and you had an obligation and wanted to get out, no problem. In fact, you were helping them solve their problem."

Seems clear that Bush actually did fulfill his obligation. Also Kerry was discharged from the Navy before his term of duty was up per his own request. It wasn't that unusual apparently.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
May experts have said the IBM Selectric could have been used to type the memo and that the model was in widespread use at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which experts, I'd like to personally take this up with them so any info would be appreciated.

[tanda]

Check out this site:

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every major news organization is running with the story that there are big problems with the docs

[ QUOTE ]

You will never be able to find an expert to verify that the documents are authentic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me make it easier. Tell me the CBS expert who thought they were probably true. Tell me why CBS thought they were real. Name one expert anywhere who thinks there is any real chance they are real.

[ QUOTE ]
May experts have said the IBM Selectric could have been used to type the memo and that the model was in widespread use at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

nope. Please provide a expert

[ QUOTE ]
CBS tricked him into lying?

[/ QUOTE ]

He never authenticated the documents and he never saw the documents. CBS read the docs and he said they sounded right. CBS then twisted that comment to mean he authenticated the docs.

Regardless of what he said to CBS, would you not agree that it is 100% impossible for him to verify a document he has never seen?

[Utah]

I don't know about the documents, but it is pretty clear that Bush did not fulfill his obligations with the National Guard. That US News story is pretty clear.

Yep. However, the big story is whether one of the 3 major news networks lied or participated in a fraud in an effort to influence a presidential election.

[Chris Alger]

You might want to start with Philip D. Bouffard, who was widely quoted as one of the experts claiming the documents were likely fakes. For example, here's the jist of Bouffard's analysis from the Chicago Sun-Times (http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-bush10.html) Chicago Sun-Times: <ul type="square"> Another blogger, Bill Ardolino at INDC Journal, who had read Powerline, said, "I decided to find a top typeface expert and ran his analysis on my Web site."

Ardolino's expert, Philip D. Bouffard, is a nationally recognized forensic authority in typewriter and electronic typefaces.

Bouffard has the largest collection of full letter impact typewriter specimens in a private collection today. Having worked at NCR and a forensic laboratory for more than 30 years, Bouffard still works with entities such as the State of Ohio on Medicare fraud cases.

Bouffard said the CBS documents appear to have been copied about 10 times in the state he saw them. Nevertheless, he states, "All the documents have been created on the same printer. And the proportional spacing and the common characteristics of numbers like 4 and 7 and letters like lower case c and upper case G are beyond the capabilities of any of the typewriter impact specimens I have in my collection. The centering of headings is also beyond the capabilities of any typewriter I know of."

His conclusion: "It is remotely possible there is some typewriter that has the capability to do all this ... but it is more likely these documents were generated in the common Times New Roman font and printed out on a computer printer that did not exist at the time they were supposedly created." [/list]Bouffard later recanted: <ul type="square"> Bouffard, the Ohio document specialist, said that he had first dismissed the Bush documents because the letters and formatting of the memos did not match any of the 4,000 samples in his database. But Friday, Bouffard said that he had not considered the IBM Selectric Composer. Once he compared the memos to Selectric Composer samples, Bouffard said, his view shifted.

In the Times interview, Bouffard had also questioned whether the military would have used the Composer, a large machine. But Friday he provided a document indicating that as early as April 1969 the Air Force had completed service testing for the Composer, possibly in preparation for purchasing the typewriters.

As for the raised "th" that appears in the Bush memos, Bouffard said that custom characters on the Composer's metal typehead ball were available in the 1970s. [/list] San Francisco Chronicle (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/09/11/MNGO68NEKR1.DTL)

We also now know that the hype about the raised superscript was the usual GOP BS, in light of the same superscript appearing on National Guard documents already released by the White House.

How long are going to keep falling for these? Let's see, there's the

1. Atta-went-to-Prague hoax
2. Saddam shipped WMD to Syria hoax
3. The secret documents tying Saddam to bin Laden hoax
4. the WMD trailer hoax
5. The undisclosed Iraqi drone hoax
6. The terrorist training camp hoax
7. The Swift boat vet hoax, and now the
8. Fake document hoax

Aren't you even a little embarrassed, or is the President's penchant for fake news endemic among Republicans?

[Knockwurst]

Nice post. But you forgot the discovered-cache-of-weapons-of-mass-destruction-that-none-of-the-liberal-media-are-reporting hoax.

[Chris Alger]

[ QUOTE ]
Every major news organization is running with the story that there are big problems with the docs

[/ QUOTE ]
USA Today obtained the documents from the same source as CBS and claims the source and the documents are both legit.
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me the CBS expert who thought they were probably true. Tell me why CBS thought they were real. Name one expert anywhere who thinks there is any real chance they are real.

[/ QUOTE ]
Marcel Matley. CBS also obtained independent verification of the subtance of the documents from witnesses.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
USA Today obtained the documents from the same source as CBS and claims the source and the documents are both legit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never considered the McPaper a major outlet, but I guess it could be included. I cant find the story on their site and I havent heard them mentioned in the story so I unfortunately cant comment.

[ QUOTE ]
Marcel Matley

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Sorry. Matley only authenticated a signature on one document from an scan of the original. In no way can it be seen that Matley authenticated the documents.

[ QUOTE ]
CBS also obtained independent verification of the subtance of the documents from witnesses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who. Hodge says it aint so. Who else does CBS have?

[Utah]

whoa!!

Not so fast.

Bouffard has complained that he was misquoted by the Globe (your link below) and he says there are all kinds of things that suggest the documents were not done by a typewriter.

[adios]

For my own edification, what is the pixel resolution of the IBM composer and how does it compare to your run of the mill laser printer today? The less pixel resolution, the less precise the spacing is. I'll research it myself and see what I anc find out. Here's Bouffard quoted at INDC (italics are Bouffard quotes):

Bouffard Quoted (http://www.indcjournal.com/archives/000859.php)

INDC EXCLUSIVE!! MUST CREDIT INDC!!

I just interviewed Dr. Bouffard again, and he's angry that the Globe has misrepresented him. He's been getting hate mail and nasty phone calls since last night's story was posted, and he wants me to correct the record. He did not change his mind, and he and his colleagues are becoming more certain that these documents are forgeries.

Instead of providing my analysis of our conversation, I'm largely going to transcribe his unaltered quotes (please note that he's a rather colorful, engaging older gentleman):

(I'm dynamically updating as I transcribe quotes, so keep refreshing)

"What the (Boston Globe) did now sort of pisses me off, because now I have people calling me and e-mailing me, and calling me names, saying that I changed my mind. I did not change my mind at all!"

"I would appreciate it if you could do whatever it takes to clear this up, through your internet site, or whatever."

"All I'd done is say, 'Hey I want to look into it.' Please correct that damn impression!"

"What I said to them was, I got new information about possible Selectric fonts and (Air Force) documents that indicated a Selectric machine could have been available, and I needed to do more analysis and consider it."

"But the more information we get and the more my colleagues look at this, we're more convinced that there are significant differences between the type of the (IBM) Composer that was available and the questionable document."

"The (new Selectric) typefaces sent to me invalidated the theory about the foot on the four (originally reported to INDC), but after looking at this more, there are still many more things that say this is bogus."

"... there are so many things that are not right; 's crossings,' 'downstrokes' ..."

"More things were looked into; more things about IBM options. Even if you bought special (superscripting) keys, it's not right. There are all kinds of things that say that this is not a typewriter."

"Any form of kerning may be critical (he hasn't rendered a definitive verdict if there is a form of kerning yet). If there is any type of kerning, it obviously isn't a typewriter or it's definitely a typeset document."

On the Globe and others:

"You talk to someone on the phone and it comes out different than you said!"

On the source of the 1969 Air Force Supply Memo:

Dr. Bouffard received an e-mail from the address of Roy Huber, a noted retired forensic analyst in Ottawa, but a response indicated that it was Lynn Huber.

"I presumed that it was a relative of Roy. The document said that there are fonts from the IBM that don't have the foot on the '4.'"

The e-mail also contained an attachment to possible Selectric fonts that indicated that the "4" had a foot, and the Air Force memo that indicated that the military purchase of such a machine was a possibility.

But since having had more time to analyze the fonts of the Selectric:

"We've looked into more and more IBM options and ... there are all kinds of things that say this isn't a typewriter."

UPDATE: These are all the transcribable quotes that Dr. Bouffard gave me at this time. More as the story develops.

I provide his words, you decide ... but I have come to the definitive conclusion that the Boston Globe misrepresented their main source's testimony to stunningly misleading effect.

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
Marcel Matley. CBS also obtained independent verification of the subtance of the documents from witnesses.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's rich and shows how little you actually know about this. Matley is a hand writing expert and supposedly verified the signatures. He is not an expert in typewriters, typefaces, fonts, or any other kind of rendering technology that would apply here. There's a problem though that signatures on photocopies can't be verified. And that's precisely what CBS is trying to sell, that Matley verified photocopies. Didn't Matley verify the Vince Foster "suicide note" as well?

[Chris Alger]

"Matley only authenticated a signature on one document from an scan of the original. In no way can it be seen that Matley authenticated the documents."
He authenticated the signature and the only reason the documents themsevles can't be authenticated is because they're copies. In other words, you're arguing that all copies should be presumed fraudulent. There isn't a court in the world that operates that way.

[ QUOTE ]
Hodge says it aint so. Who else does CBS have?

[/ QUOTE ]
What Hodges says now is hardly relevant in light of him changing his story only after the Killian family -- who don't even purport to have any direct knowledge of these events -- said they were upset with the story.

The story was also corroborated by Robert Strong, another colleague of Killian who believes the documents are legit.

More to the point, all the supposed indicia of fraud, the font, the raised superscript, the proportional spacing, have all been dubunked. The "liberal media" crazies are claiming fraud: where's their evidence?

[adios]

There'll be more on this. Typical Alger disinformation but this time he's ventured into an area he knows nothing about apparently:

History of Typewriters (http://www.etypewriters.com/history.htm)

[Utah]

It doesnt help us much as we are taking a piecemeal approach to the evidence. However, I will continue for the fun of it.

[ QUOTE ]
He authenticated the signature and the only reason the documents themsevles can't be authenticated is because they're copies. In other words, you're arguing that all copies should be presumed fraudulent. There isn't a court in the world that operates that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, shall we start with the signature verification? First, this only applies to 1 of 4 documents. So, Matley says absolutely nothing about 3 of the 4 documents. Agreed?

Can a signature verified from a copy? Hmmmm.....who shall we turn to to answer that question?.......hey! How about Matley!!!

Here is what Matley says about verifying a signature from a copy:

"Do not passively accept as the sole basis of a case. Every copy, intentionally or unintentionally is in some way false to the original. In fact, modern copiers and computer printers as so good they permit easy fabrication of quality forgeries. From a copy, the document examiner cannot authenticate the unseen orignal but may well be able to determine the unseen orignal is false. further, a definite finding of authenticity for a signature is not possible from a photocopy, while a definite finding of falsity is possible {emphasis added).

So, we now know tha Matley provides no credibility to the documents because he himself says its impossible and even if it was he only examined one document.

Next. Does CBS have another expert? How about one to authenticate the type - which is the main challenge.

Lets turn our attention to Strong shall we?

Strong:
"They are compatible with the man that I remember Jerry Killian being. I don't see anything in the documents that are discordant with what were the times, what were the situation and what were the people that were involved."

Wow! There you have it. The documents are real because they are compatible with the way Killian supposedly did business. I think we all agree that argument would stand up in any court [/sarcasm]

Hey, lets take it a step further. Here is what strong said in an interview posted on powerlineblog.com.

"In a follow-up conversation, Robert Strong told our correspondent that he worked with Jerry Killian in the Air National Guard from 1968 to the early 1970’s. He said that he believed that the CBS documents were genuine, but admitted that he “cannot vouch for the documents’ authenticity.” Further, Strong said that he doesn’t think it matters whether the documents are genuine are not."

Whoops. I guess Strong cant vouch for the authenticity either.

Please tell me you have more to your argument. Please tell me that you have another expert. Please tell me you can put up a better challenge. Trashing your agrument is too easy and no fun.



(1) "Using and cross examining handwritting experts". Marcel B. Matley. Year unknown

[Chris Alger]

Your link shows the IBM "Selectric Composer" being marketed in 1966. The 1975 date refers to the "Electronic Selectric Composer."