JJ all in raise in EP, near bubble --- berate me if you will.

[thylacine]

PokerStars 200+15 NLHE tourney (I only play this if I can get in via satellite for about 20 bucks.)

Round 12: Blinds 1000/2000 antes 100.

I have 24k which is about average. 135 places pay and about 175 players remain out of 1800. 135th is about $400.

A big stack had recently arrived on my right with 70k, and had run it up to 100k, about 10k of it from me folding to his pre-flop and on-flop aggression. I'm sick of tangling with this guy, and I am a bit rattled.

THE HAND: BigStack limps UTG, I have JJ and see 6k in pot and I go All In with my 24k, hoping to take it right there, assuming BigStack just wanted to see a cheap flop (that part was right) and hoping no-one else has a big hand. Alas a LP player calls 16k All In with AK (everyone else folds) and spikes a King or two. (I am crippled and don't make it to the bubble.)

What should I have done? Comments welcome.

Should I have done what I did?

Should I have made a small raise? What do I do when LP goes All In for $16k, as he surely will?

Should I have just limped, hoping to see a cheap flop and a set? But then, what do I do when LP goes All In for $16k, as he surely will?

Or should I just have folded, and settled down, and just played to make the bubble.

[SossMan]

You don't really have enough chips to get cute w/ a small raise and fold since you can't narrow your read down far enough with the shallow stacks. Go ahead and push...you are still kind of far from the bubble, and you need to accumulate chips. don't feel bad, you made the right play.

[Gula25]

I agree, you made a strong move and your jacks didnt stand up. As long as you realize that you are risking getting called by a player behind you, and perhaps maybe not focusing so much on just this player that had you off balance on your right.

I think you made the right move, and got unlucky. If your hand stood up, your move would have been even stronger and your stack would be nice and healthy.

[fnord_too]

I push here everytime under the conditions you described.

[davidross]

Try to look at it this way. At a critical stage of of the tournament, you were able to bet 16K as a favorite to win 21K, and no risk of getting put out on that hand. These are the opportunities you look for in a tournament, and you just got unlucky. Well played.

The only other way I could see playing this is to just limp behind the big stack, hope to see a cheap flop and make a set. It's pretty weak and likely would have ended up with the same outcome after the LP guy pushed all-in.

[thylacine]

I don't do these calculations at the table. I play by instinct (which is a bit silly for a mathematician like me).

Suppose I assume that in the situation I described, any player will call with AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ and will fold otherwise. Out of 1225 2-card hands, 50 of them are one of these, 18 being overpair, 32 being overcards. Against overcards I am about 55% favorite. Against overpair I am about 18% underdog. Combining these, I am about 42% dog, IF CALLED, by one hand. (I could maybe take into account stack sizes that are bigger or smaller than mine, but that is too complicated.)

Moreover, I figure any one player has prob. 50/1225 of having a hand to call with, and there is about 28% chance THAT (AT LEAST) one of the other 8 players will have such a hand. (I was UTG+1, and UTG had limped, so any of the 8 are potentially in play.)

So 72% of the time I win uncontested the 6k (inc. antes) in the pot, 16% of the time I am called and lose, and 12% of the time I am called and win.

EV depends on other stack size, but worst case scenario (slightly) is that all stacks are bigger so I lose (all) 24k @16% or win 30k @12% or win 6k @72%. Overall it is EV of +4k.

It's +EV (with the above assumptions about calling hands etc.) in TOURNAMENT CHIPS, but is it +EV in terms of PRIZE POOL EQUITY?

Should I get more serious about these kinds of calculations, instead of just playing for fun?

[SossMan]

I don't do these calculations at the table.

nobody does


Suppose I assume that in the situation I described, any player will call with AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ and will fold otherwise. Out of 1225 2-card hands, 50 of them are one of these, 18 being overpair, 32 being overcards. Against overcards I am about 55% favorite. Against overpair I am about 18% underdog. Combining these, I am about 42% dog, IF CALLED, by one hand. (I could maybe take into account stack sizes that are bigger or smaller than mine, but that is too complicated.)

Moreover, I figure any one player has prob. 50/1225 of having a hand to call with, and there is about 28% chance THAT (AT LEAST) one of the other 8 players will have such a hand. (I was UTG+1, and UTG had limped, so any of the 8 are potentially in play.)

So 72% of the time I win uncontested the 6k (inc. antes) in the pot, 16% of the time I am called and lose, and 12% of the time I am called and win.

EV depends on other stack size, but worst case scenario (slightly) is that all stacks are bigger so I lose (all) 24k @16% or win 30k @12% or win 6k @72%. Overall it is EV of +4k.



these numbers look right to me.


It's +EV (with the above assumptions about calling hands etc.) in TOURNAMENT CHIPS, but is it +EV in terms of PRIZE POOL EQUITY?


there's the rub. The relationship between chipEV and dollarEV has been discussed at length on this board and the general conclusion is that until you get close to or in the money, chipEV and dollarEV are the same. However, as you approach the bubble, these two can start to diverge.
There is no exact calculation because an actual dollar EV calculation would be full of assumptions and estimates, but you should be able to ballpark it based on the chipEV calculation. The steeper the prize pool, the more closely the two EV's are (in a winner take all, they are essentially equal throughout, given equal skill). In a flatter prize pool, you may want to start giving up marginal EV situations for all your chips in hopes of making some money.

This situation isn't really close, though. The chipEV is too much to give up in almost every situation.

Should I get more serious about these kinds of calculations, instead of just playing for fun?

the more you do these calculations, the better your "instinct" becomes. Luck favores the prepared mind...or something like that.

good luck,

SossMan

[mullaney]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't do these calculations at the table. I play by instinct (which is a bit silly for a mathematician like me).

Suppose I assume that in the situation I described, any player will call with AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ and will fold otherwise. Out of 1225 2-card hands, 50 of them are one of these, 18 being overpair, 32 being overcards. Against overcards I am about 55% favorite. Against overpair I am about 18% underdog. Combining these, I am about 42% dog, IF CALLED, by one hand. (I could maybe take into account stack sizes that are bigger or smaller than mine, but that is too complicated.)

Moreover, I figure any one player has prob. 50/1225 of having a hand to call with, and there is about 28% chance THAT (AT LEAST) one of the other 8 players will have such a hand. (I was UTG+1, and UTG had limped, so any of the 8 are potentially in play.)

So 72% of the time I win uncontested the 6k (inc. antes) in the pot, 16% of the time I am called and lose, and 12% of the time I am called and win.

EV depends on other stack size, but worst case scenario (slightly) is that all stacks are bigger so I lose (all) 24k @16% or win 30k @12% or win 6k @72%. Overall it is EV of +4k.

It's +EV (with the above assumptions about calling hands etc.) in TOURNAMENT CHIPS, but is it +EV in terms of PRIZE POOL EQUITY?

Should I get more serious about these kinds of calculations, instead of just playing for fun?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think your overall equity is much better since your opponents may call with TT, 99 even 88 or 77. They might even call with AJs or worse. They shouldn't call there, but I've seen players with very short stacks or very large stacks making very bad calls in that situation.

[thylacine]

Suppose we change the scenario to what I reckon to be the extreme case of diverge between chipEV and dollarEV, namely a supersatellite? With 135 'winners' out of 170 remaining players should I still mess with this situation?

Although I only have 12BB, it is an average stack, and the ranking is probably about 70/170.

[mullaney]

I think you made the right decision. You are far out of the money, you have to accumulate chips now. JJ is a good push over one or two limpers.

[fnurt]

I think these are very useful calculations and you will probably learn a lot from doing them.

I think a gain of 4k has to be a gain in prize pool terms as well. Keep in mind the money is generally weighted towards the final table and the top 3. The difference between finishing just in the money, and bubbling out, is relatively insignificant in the long run.

I think your assumptions were probably too conservative in this case, which makes the decision even clearer. There is a reasonable probability of TT and 99 calling here; assign it whatever chance you like, but it adds a lot to your EV.

I also don't think it's clear that AK will always call. In this case, LP had a reasonably comfortable 16xBB if he folded, plus he was calling an all-in bet so he had no folding equity. In this situation, with a limper and an all-in in front of you, there are at least some players who would let AK go. Indeed, putting the math aside for the moment, one of the reasons to push with this hand is to force hands like AK to make the tough decision, rather than playing wimpy and ending up with the decision yourself.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]

Suppose we change the scenario to what I reckon to be the extreme case of diverge between chipEV and dollarEV, namely a supersatellite? With 135 'winners' out of 170 remaining players should I still mess with this situation?

Although I only have 12BB, it is an average stack, and the ranking is probably about 70/170.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are still too far from the bubble in this situation to pass up on the EV. In fact, it's probably significantly higher, since many players will fold many more hands here. You may only be called by AA/KK/QQ. If that's the case, then your FE goes way up as does your EV. Now, if you get down to about field plus 10% (about 140 players in this case), then you should start thinking about giving up big chipEV.
It's a gradual thing, though. The closer you get, the more chipEV you need to risk your stack.