JJ Satellite Question?

[Poker Jon]

Hey All,

Stars $36 NLHE sat to $200. 90 runners - top 15 with a spot.

20 players left. After getting a reasonable stack early on, I have had two suckouts and am down to T2800.

I then get virtually unplayable hands for the next two orbits with someone constantly raising in front of me - I have folded 21 hands on the trot!

Down to ~T1500.

In the SB with JJ. Folded round to the CO (T5000) who raises to 1200. Button (Big Stack T9000), then rerasies all in.

I am 75% sure the big stack has a bigger pair than me - or he has AK.

Fold or Call?

Cheers, Jon

[wilkcards]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey All,

Stars $36 NLHE sat to $200. 90 runners - top 15 with a spot.

20 players left. After getting a reasonable stack early on, I have had two suckouts and am down to T2800.

I then get virtually unplayable hands for the next two orbits with someone constantly raising in front of me - I have folded 21 hands on the trot!

Down to ~T1500.

In the SB with JJ. Folded round to the CO (T5000) who raises to 1200. Button (Big Stack T9000), then rerasies all in.

I am 75% sure the big stack has a bigger pair than me - or he has AK.

Fold or Call?

Cheers, Jon

[/ QUOTE ]


I think you have to call here. There's a good chance he has ak, and also that the original raiser will fold. I'd take my chances to triple up.

[mackthefork]

Sounds horrible to me, calling and folding both sound like bad options, what size are the blinds at this point? I was in a similar situation with JJ which i folded then bubbled, call I guess hope you are isolated, if the BB is 200 then the first raiser could well have 99 or TT, maybe the reraising guy does have AK but I wouldn't be holding my breath personally.

Hope it turned out good.

Regards Mack

[Eder]

I was in similar situation on final table last night (started with 2100 players) good $$ are top 3 spots. I look at JJ in SB position, average stack size. I push, BB calls and shows 77, 7 on flop I bust out 9th,but with blinds at 40k I would do it again...I hope you got your money in as well and took the pot down,seems like right move to me.

[gergery]

Seems like easy fold, but you don't say how big blinds are, which could change the answer.

CO could still have good hand, you are badly beaten over half the time here, and only need to outlast 5 other players.

--Greg

[SossMan]

This really depends on the blinds. If the BB is t100, I think you can wait for a little better spot where hopefully you have some FE. But if the BB is t150 or t200 or is about to go up, or your table is full of loose big stacks (i.e. not much folding equity on your steals), then I think you have to take your chances here to triple up.

[Poker Jon]

Hi All,

Sorry for forgetting the blinds!! They were 200/400 a25.

I used all my time on this particular occasion! I figured CO for a decent hand and the button for a very good hand. However, I decided to call the bet as I had a chance to triple up - which if I did so would have probably put me safely into the qualifying positions.

CO thought for ages as well and decided to call.

CO flipped 88 and The button flipped over KK.

No miracle Jack came and I was out in 20th. This was a tough decision for me - I felt I made the right play as I could have folded and not had another hand by the time the BB came back round to me.

Can anyone tell me about EV on this hand. i.e. if the situations were the same and the CO and button hands were shown to me prior to pushing my chips in, should I still call with the opportunity to triple up and almost guarentee myself a place in the qualifier??

Cheers Jon

[SossMan]

Blinds 200/400 antes 50

I'll assume ten handed and you had 1300 after posting the SB and both players showed you their cards.

You are about 20% to win the hand (depending on suits) which is 4:1.

You have to call 1300 more into a pot of:

1500+1500+400+200+500= 4100

4100/1300 = 3.15:1

So, you don't have the odds, and it was a bad call, FTOP speaking.

Obviously, if the big stack had AK instead of KK, the call is easy. I would estimate that he would have to have AK about half the time for the call to be correct given his other range of hands.

[Poker Jon]

Hi Soss,

The table was 6 handed. Does this make any difference?

As it was a Stars tourney and 20 players left, there were 7 7 and 6 at each table.

Is the EV any different in this situation?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Soss,

The table was 6 handed. Does this make any difference?

As it was a Stars tourney and 20 players left, there were 7 7 and 6 at each table.

Is the EV any different in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, it's worse, and I just noticed the antes were only t25.
plug in the new numbers.