Critique of numbers for first 100 $20 + 2 SNG's at Party

[w_raedy99]

Total tourneys: 100
Profit: $760

ROI: 34.5%
ITM: 45.0%

1st: 14
2nd: 16
3rd: 15
4th: 13
5th: 17
6th: 10
7th: 10
8th: 3
9th: 1
10th: 1

$/hr: $11.31 (Note I do not multi-table)

I am happy with these numbers and feel I have improved my game GREATLY thanks to this forum, Aleo's et. al's great spreadsheet, and reading some of the essays as well. So THANKS TO EVERYONE here at 2+2!

On a side note, I entered my first B&M NL tourney on Friday, field of 135, made it to the final table but went out first in 10th. Won $135, for around $70 in profit. I got real lucky on two hands but I was under the impression in these types of tourneys you will have to get lucky at least once or twice to make the money usually.

I am considering playing more B&M tourneys, and maybe moving up in level, or multi-tabling, however I want to work on my game some more. I feel my post-flop play is weak and if I usually don't have TPGK or a good drawing hand I usually don't want to stay in apart from a good read on my opponent. Online this strategy seems to work fine for me, but in B&M it seemed as if any pair was usually the winning hand. I really would like to read Tournament Poker by Slansky and SuperSystem II when it is released as well.

Any critique's, comments, and/or suggestions are welcome.
Will

[eastbay]

You're doing great. Time to move up.

eastbay

[Jman28]

Hey Eastbay,

I was under the impression that people were moving up too fast.

I started 5 mo. ago or so with 20s, then moved to 30s and 50s within the first 3 weeks. 30s, I ended up down after about 30 tourneys. After 120 50s, I was dead even.

So, I moved back to 20s. I've definitely improved my game over the last few months, but my numbers at 20s are so much better than my past numbers at higher buy ins...

total played: 358
ITM: 42.74%
ROI: 35.85%

I'm playing 4 at a time, and making around $33/hr which is plenty for me (The best job I could get now is $15/hr), but I wouldn't be opposed to making more.

I guess I'm just worried about any negative ROI. I understand that at $50 tables, I can make more than I do now with half my current ROI, but I don't wanna lose.

What do you recommend?

Thanks man.

-Jman28

[eastbay]

If you are risk-averse, and you should be if you depend on your winnings as it sounds you do:

Maybe one thing you could try would be to "feather" in some 30's - say, make every 1 in 4 a 30. Then, it will take awhile, but you will be able to see if those games are going ok, without taking on too much risk in the process, as your winning 20 games will pad any losses, should they occur.

eastbay

[Jman28]

Looks pretty good. I posted my numbers in this thread too. Seems like you do better early and I do better late. I'd like to hear a little bit of the way you play with 7+ players still in.

I definitely recommend Tournament Poker by Sklansky. Some really good concepts in there.

I think you probably need to get more agressive short handed from your description.

You place ITM slightly more than me but my ROI was slightly better. I credit this to extremely agressive play with 5 players or less. My finish detail is:

1- 59
2- 52
3- 42

Not boasting... It just seems like this is the part of your game that could improve. You should aim to have more 1st place finishes than any other place. The way to do this is to collect chips whenever you can...

You MUST steal blinds often, and after an attempt at the blinds fails, I take a shot at the pot most of the time.

Also, I make some calls that people don't like strictly because of pot odds.

If I'm in the T400 BB, and the SB pushes for an additional T700, I will call with almost any hand unless I have reason to believe he is very strong...

AKo v 75o, for example.

AKo wins 63.342%
75o wins 36.658%

In the case I gave, you're only putting in 31.8% of the pot and you should expect a return of 36.66%.. making this a +tourney EV.

And that was 75 v AK!

While I don't think that calls like this are extremely profitable in $$ EV alone, they intimidate your opponents and make them less likely to attempt to steal from you.

Here's an example of a play that I'd make whereas you may not...

4 handed-

You 3000
BB 3000
SB 1200
UTG 800

Blinds 200/400

You [7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif]

UTG folds
You raise to 900
SB folds
BB calls

Pot [2000]

flop [K /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif]

BB checks
You...

I bet about 850 here. I'm risking less than half my chips, but I'm still threatening his whole stack. He would hate to go out with 2000 chips here and the short stack almost done. He usually isn't calling without at least a pair of Ks... or pocket Ts+.

For this to be profitable, it only has to work 1/5 times!

I would say it works at least 3/5 against typical $20 opponents.

many people consider this part of a tourney push or fold time, but I like the small pf raise because scenarios like this are common.

Someone let me know if I'm wrong.. I'll be happy to learn.

[Jman28]

Thanks for the response.

Looking back, I sounded much more risk-averse than I really am.

I guess my thinking is, I'm doing well, so why mess with it? (to make more, i know)

Can you give me your opinion on difference in skill between buy ins?

Thanks

-Jman28

[eastbay]

Sure. In my opinion, the first discernible skill jump happens from 30 to 50. I think there is a much larger jump still from 50 to 100. I've never played 215.

About the time I was first learning SnGs, I hit a $5k score in a MTT, so I had a good cushion for moving through the lower levels very quickly. So if there is a difference between 10, 20, and 30, I may just not have hung around long enough to notice it.

I have still yet to break through and feel confident in the $109 games, despite beating the $55s for 35% ROI over 500 games.

eastbay

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
For this to be profitable, it only has to work 1/5 times!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are risking 850 to win 2000. It looks like it will have to work somewhat more than about 3/10 to be +CEV (I'm speaking about the flop alone, not the whole action, which is actually more relevant for judging CEV).

What am I missing? (BTW, I'm not necessarily arguing against the move here).

[Jman28]

I've decided to just make the jump to 30s, and not turn back till I get 150 of em.

I have the BR to support a decent loss, but I feel I'll still be a winner in 30s.

My real aim is the 50s, but I'm not gonna make a 2 level jump.

I'll try hard to get 150 30s in in the next couple weeks (I'm in school too), and let you know how it goes.

Thanks for the advice.

-Jman28

[Jman28]

You're absolutely right... I'm watching the Broncos Chiefs game, and lost focus.. thanks.

-Jman28

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
You're absolutely right... I'm watching the Broncos Chiefs game, and lost focus.. thanks.

Im gonna edit the first post, because i hate looking dumb.



[/ QUOTE ]

NP, we should all save each other from looking dumb, whenever we can... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[w_raedy99]

I appreciate the responses by everyone.

In response to Jman:

I agree that I probably could be more aggressive with 5 and less players. I try to be fairly aggressive but I do not go for the blinds every time I am button and it is folded to me and I have hands like 27o and 57o. I also do not generally push if I have just failed a steal attempt. I would assume that people would put me on tilt and call on a much worse range of hands. Maybe that is naiive thinking on my part.

In your first example, I admit I probably would not call here if the person raised it to t1100 which is what I assume you mean when you say an ADDITIONAL t700 (it actually would not be possible to make it t700 with t400 blinds so I think that is a logical assumption, lol). Perhaps I should. I do find on Party people make min raises all the time and are surprised when I call those but I generally will call a min-raise in the big blind with very minimal cards shorthanded (perhaps this is another mistake, but I don't think so).

On the second hand, I probably would be aggressive as well, I am not sure if I would make exactly that size bet but after showing strength pre-flop and having him check to me I will definitely fire at it again in most circumstances. I perhaps might not bet quite that much, and agree with your assesment at to why that is a very good size bet and will consider that in the future.

I do find that maybe sometimes I am too much of a 'feel' player, as sometimes I will 'feel' like it is not the right time to steal blinds even if I have a decent hand, etc. This is usually regardless of actual reads or tells because I play online, other than if I might think someone will call because of how much I have been going after the blinds.

Sometimes this leads to me making great laydowns, and not attempting to steal when opponents actually had great hands. Sometimes it leads to me not being aggressive enough. Sometimes it leads to me making unusually aggressive bets and calls which turn out to be very good. Sometimes it leads me to make BAD calls. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I am interested in hearing if this happens with most players, and if so (as I'm sure it does) to what extent? E.g. I usually play the cards and position more than anything but still definitely do play on 'feeling' something like maybe 20% of the time (maybe less).

Also, I am interested if anyone has anyone comments about my post-flop play critique's of myself and my assesment of hand strength going down considerably in B&M tourneys.

Will

[Jman28]

I think nearly everyone uses 'feel' to some extent. I don't have an exact system for when I raise and when I call or fold.

When shorthanded, I usually base my moves on how I feel people at the table percieve me.

Since I'm tight early, it takes a bunch of steals before most people stop giving me credit for great hands. If I've raised the last two hands, and gotten no calls, I'll often fold medium hands. If I've been playing very tightly, I may attempt a steal with a poor hand.

I'm by no means an expert though. Just letting you know what works for me.

As for B&M winning hands being weaker, I think you are right to some extent. People play more hands live than online in general. There are many more flops live and many people limping A7o and J3s etc.

I think since there are often weak hands seeing the flop, these hands are less likely than the hands played by online players to hit trips, straights, flushes and boats.

Since you see more showdowns live than online by far, a larger percentage of these are won by pairs... Not a larger percentage of total hands played though.

I hope that made sense. And I also wanna make sure it doesn't come off as fact. Just me trying to logic my way through it at 5 am.

-Jman28

[Jman28]

I made the jump from 20s to 30s tonight.. Got 19 games in.

Here are my results and conclusions...

ITM: 52.63%
ROI: 100.8%

I conclude that these numbers are entirely sustainable and I'm the best poker player alive.

Finish..
1: 7
2: 1
3: 2

Again, I expect these numbers to continue throughout my next 100 tourneys.

Seems I've learned everything there is to learn here at 2+2.
I'll stick around just to help you guys out.

-Jman28

[chill888]

It's not that people move up to fast .... it's that they move back down too slow.

"[censored], I just lost $1000 since moving up to the $100s, i better start playing the $200s to win it back"

[PrayingMantis]

I believe that for many players, moving down in buy-ins when they should, is as difficult as folding a nice-looking hand, when it is obviously beaten.

[eastbay]

Go ahead and run up your credit cards on a plasma TV, a nice piece of jewelry for your SO, and some overseas travel reservations, because you can pay them off at the end of the month at this rate!

eastbay