cash EV vs tourney EV

[cheech]

I have read fossilman and others write that early on in tournaments cash EV is about the same as tournament EV.

I have a very simple example which questions this logic:

What if on every tournament hand you had a 100% chance of increasing your stack by 50% or a 50% chance of doubling your stack. You should be indifferent between the two, because they have the same EV - yet I would clearly prefer the 2nd one.

Of course this is overly simplifing, but you can see my point.

[atomicbran]

Not the same ev.

100% chance of increasing by 50%: ev = 50% of your stack
50% of doubling: ev = 0

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I have read fossilman and others write that early on in tournaments cash EV is about the same as tournament EV.

I have a very simple example which questions this logic:

What if on every tournament hand you had a 100% chance of increasing your stack by 50% or a 50% chance of doubling your stack. You should be indifferent between the two, because they have the same EV - yet I would clearly prefer the 2nd one.

Of course this is overly simplifing, but you can see my point.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to be a little confused by EV (chip and dollar). These situations don't have the same chipEV, and you didn't mention the prize structure, so there can be no way of knowing the $$EV.

Oh yeah, and you should ALWAYS prefer the first option.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
50% of doubling: ev = 0

[/ QUOTE ]
The original poster must have been assuming he was 50% to double and 50% to stay at the same chip count, not to bust out.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50% of doubling: ev = 0

[/ QUOTE ]
The original poster must have been assuming he was 50% to double and 50% to stay at the same chip count, not to bust out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then the EV of both of those plays is 1.5x of what you are currently at, except that one has higher variance than the other. Economic and decision theory tells you that you less variance is better (ie. you need a premium on your return to be willing to except the higher variance). I would think that concept translates to poker as well.

--Greg

[Jman28]

Assuming you mean a 50% chance to double up and 50% chance to lose nothing, I would be equally happy with either option.

This is assuming it's very early in a long tourney.