All-in with KK as overpair, very -EV?

[Tharpab]

Lets say your playing at Party and you raised before the flop $20, blinds are $5-$2.5, one person calls and it gets HU($48 pot) and the flop is J 8 3 rainbow, you bet pot your opponent goes all-in for lets say $200, so you have to call $155 to win $295, 1.9-1, you still dont have a solid read, I'm begining to believe this is a VERY -EV call. Eliminating QQ/AA calculation because they give the same profit or loss and he would probably do this move with both hands, so the net of that is almost 0(its 50/50 for you to be a favorite). But he could also have JJ, 88, 33 and MAYBE AJ, so your only hope to go get QQ or AJ(But with AJ may not happen 100% of the time since some of the time, as much their idiots, they will be afraid and just call), is my math off or this is a very -EV situation?

[JohnG]

It's an auto call, normally. For these ratios, on this flop, a typical player can just be going with his hand because he can't just call. He can have plenty of hands you bury, hoping you have AK and missed. And even more so if he thinks you can fold KK. It would be correct to raise you with any hand in that case. Of course, against players that just call with pairs on this ratio, you can fold.

An opponent has to get very lucky to flop a set on you when it's headsup seeing flop. Odds are he has a hand you bury like a lower pair or a bluff.

[B1GF1SHY]

It's very player dependant, all situations are. But for the most part if a player did hit a set on a rainbow flop they will not go all-in on the flop but rather call and push on the turn. So in other words you're either going up against AJ or two pair. I call everytime unless I have a very strong read.

[The4thFilm]

The board has no real draws so if I don't think he's playing a set like this I'd call.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
you have to call $155 to win $295, 1.9-1, you still dont have a solid read, I'm begining to believe this is a VERY -EV call. Eliminating QQ/AA calculation because they give the same profit or loss and he would probably do this move with both hands, so the net of that is almost 0(its 50/50 for you to be a favorite).

[/ QUOTE ]

You are 50/50 to be a favorite against AA/QQ, but the net is far from zero. You lose $155 half the time, but you win $295 the other half of the time. That's $70 in +EV if you were only facing these two hands - not something to be ignored.

Later,
Che