odds for pocket pairs (question of rhetoric)

I have read that one should only call with small pocket pairs in Late Position with no raise.... but upon doing a little math, I had a problem with this idea...


Let's say the betting is capped with nine players, if you need 8:1 odds to call with a small pocket pair, would it not be profitable/correct to call with that pair from any position? You will catch your set 12% of the time on the flop.... (derived by 1 divided by 8.3333) is it that position is really that important? Is it that even if you do catch your set you may still be an underdog due to the raising indicating stronger hands?


Help greatly appreciated... I've had problems with the whole "Pocket Pair in Late Position" thing for a while now.... would love to finaly lay it to rest.


index

Index,


The reason you don't play pocket pairs in early position IN CERTAIN GAMES is for fear of a raise behind you. You could be either isolated or left with a number of callers such that you aren't getting the implied odds to make early position play of the hand profitable.


For example, say you limped in UTG with 44. The guy to your left, a solid player, raises -- driving out all the other players. You've been isolated. You certainly won't be getting the proper implied odds now to continue, but you've already committed a bet. Now you wish you hadn't limped in with the 44. A good player, holding what is likely a far better hand, has position on you.


Now, in a game where players are loose-passive before the flop you should be able to play those smaller pairs in early position. You don't have to fear the isolating raise. These players won't charge you what they should when they have raising-quality hands. However, note that with this hand you do want relatively aggressive play on the flop for when you hit your set -- you want to make sure you collect enough money for all those times when you don't hit or set and can't proceed with the hand.


Jon I.

This is a question I have asked many times myself. I think Jon's analysis is correct; that is, don't play small pairs if you are against people who like to raise before the flop. But, if you are in a loose passive game where generally no one raises before the flop and there are always 5 or more callers typically, then you can play any pocket pair (and conceivably AXs and suited connectors) in early position. I think a lot of beginning books tell you not to play low pocket pairs up front because if you don't know what you are doing, you could get "trapped" on later bets because you don't have the discipline to throw your hand away when you don't hit your set. They key is to just play them when you are in a loose passive game when you anticipate no raises after you and lots of callers preflop, and then to release them if you don't hit your set.

s

Thanks for the responses guys.... I think i've got it...... just to make sure: as a rule, if i limp in with a pair of 3's at the cut-off with 8 callers, but the button raises... and the SB and the BB fold along with one other leaving me 5 callers, i should fold........ but i would have easy call if everyone called the raise? Or again, am i paying too much for my potential expected value? This would tie in to such calls as J,10s in middle posision, but by the time the betting reaches you again, it is capped.. What is correct then?


Thanks again.


index

Not quite the same as JTs because when you hit your set you will win more often. JTs can make many second best hands and it best in the muck if against what is certainly overpairs and maybe AKs. 33 has a 9:1 chance to hit a set on the flop. The chances of flopping two pair or better with JT is more like 28:1.


In the first case, you are getting very good odds to call one more bet, no matter the number of opponents. If you limp and its capped to you, look for around 9:1 odds on all the bets to continue. Or grit your teeth and pray for a three :)


KJS

People will correct me if I'm wrong, but I was taught that there is approx. a 1 in 8 chance of your pocket pair turning into trips on the flop. Therefore if you are counting the number of bets in the pot in relation to what you have to call (irregardless if it is calling a raise or not), you would call if it is better than a 1:8 ratio.

those are the numbers I came up with by:


48:2 reduces to 24:1


and since we get three cards on the flop, divide 24 by 3 for a final actual odds of


7.33:1


so one would be correct in calling with the pot offering anything greater... in other words


at least 8:1 pot odds to call (makes it easy to work with in game)


somone please set me straight if i'm off here.


index

"If you hold a wired pair you will flop three of a kind or better 11.8 percent of the time." S&M, Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players 21st Century Edition, at 310. I have that at 7.47 to 1. Rounded up, 7.5 to 1.


Jon I.

Do you guys ever consider implied odds and call with less than correct pot odds if raising on the flop and beyond has been aggressive? I read that you can sometimes do this (call with your pocket pairs on less than 7.5:1 odds if you anticipate great implied odds if you hit your set). I have never tried this but just wonderred if anyone else has.

If am in late position and think that my call will not get raised behind me, I might call with less than 8 bets in the pot if the table has been over aggressive. In this cases, you can safely assume you will gain several extra small bets if you do hit a set.


KJS

a set.. no more.. no less.


index

Tim,


I think you should always consider your implied odds with a pocket pair. I have been in some really silly games, but their was rarely 8 callers in front of me. I think a better estimation is about 5 callers in front of you to make the play. You will get paid b/c of the deception built into your hand and if everything goes right you will get them on the turn for that double bet. Hope my two cents helps.

KJS and Nick C,


Thanks for your comments about the implied odds with a pocket pair. Now that I remember it, Lee Jones did say something about calling on the button with a small pocket pair if you had 5 or more callers. I remember I couldn't understand why that made sense because I thought you had to get 7.5:1 odds. He always says to play a set fast on the flop though, whereas I've heard other people recommend waiting and then trying for a check-raise when the bets double on the turn. I guess it depends if there are any obvious draws you are afraid of on the board. Anyway, thanks for the input. -Tim

I don't know but the way I would figure it out would be that you have two cards and there are 50 other cards thus on the first flopped card you have 2/50 of getting set; on the 2nd floped card you have 2/49 of being set; on the 3rd flopped card you have 2/48 chances of being set these values then sum together to get .12248... or a 12% chance or 8.16:1 against.


Someone please correct me if I am wrong.


Best regards, K-9