Getting the Balance Right

[naphand]

This hand reminds me of the section in Ed Miller's SSHE book about hidden outs. I say, why call if you don't raise when you hit?

My read on opponent is that he plays selectively, he is not the usual uber-loose and over-aggro. He is capable of raising good hands, perhaps is too loose in the blinds.


Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (5 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, Naphand calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Naphand calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16.50 BB, between Naphand and SB.</font>

Result later... /images/graemlins/mad.gif


Standard? Anyone think the River raise is too much? Anyone think I should cap this?

[MisterKing]

Why aren't you capping the turn? I agree this is a strange hand and SB's actions make it hard to put him on a hand. Personally, I'd show more strength early in the hand and less towards the end. SB's betting pattern makes it very unclear what he has (AA? T9? JJ? AJ? 88?), and your advantage is greatest up front before the draws come out.

I'd try to cap the flop, and if I thought I were still ahead, cap the turn as well. If he's still in the hand, I'm check-calling the river.

[chio]

the way you played the hand (thought you were behind on turn, ahead on river), you would have to put your opponent on exactly 78 J7 or J8. that's too tight of a read. if that's not what your thinking was, then your turn/river lines confuse me.

i would call the river, expecting to win a lot of the time, as 2 pair is possible, but not so likely as to warrant a river raise since you'll have to pay off a 3bet from a monster, which is very likely as well given the turn action

"why call if you're not going to raise if you hit"
(1) because half of the 2 pair combinations he could have on the turn would given him a full house on the river (however unlikely)
(2) you're calling because it's HU and your hand is still good a lot of the time from someone overplaying AJ or pair of jacks with flush/straight draw

[naphand]

I place a lot of trust in my reads of players. There are few hands I play where I incorrectly raise on two successive streets, I have posted some examples lately of where I have done this for the exact purpose of improving my thinking/reads. Obviously it is harder to pick up some of the more subtle nuances in play from a short post on the Forum.

My thinking on this hands was as follows:

PF obvious. The hand is now heads up with a player who plays somewhat selectively, and is picky about when he gets aggressive.

Flop looks fine, I will call 78s from the BB to a raise from a tight player, I may not from the SB, but it is a consideration. When my bet gets raised I have a choice: re-raise and face a cap when behind (78/77/88/22), or clam him up for the rest of the hand if he has a hand like A8/Q8/J8/T8. I sacrifice the extra SB on the flop for a CR on the Turn, which if called means he has just a pair. I think most of the time this will be a 7 or an 8. The flop raise to PF aggresor with raggy flop is standard play on these tables, at least for players with more than 1 brain cell.

Turn. No Ace, no problem, I continue with the plan. I am 3-bet again and now I have to consider the very likely prospect that I am behind. No way am I capping here, I believe it is very unlikely ths guy 3-bets with just a lone 8 or 7. I hope for help on the River, otherwise I just call. I don't see the point of capping here and calling the River, both streets cost the same, I would rather call and only put the extra bet in if I improve.

River. This is the next best card to a K. I certainly do not put him on a 2 (unless 22). Against 2-pair I am now ahead again, when 3-bet again I now have to consider that a set is the more likely.


River: (10.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16.50 BB, between Naphand and SB.</font>

Result:
SB has 8c Js (two pair, jacks and eights).
Naphand has Kh Kd (two pair, kings and twos).
Outcome: Naphand wins 16.50 BB.


My read was pretty good... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I do not think capping the Turn when your opponent is telling you you are behind is good, especially a selective (but still too loose) opponent. It may well be cheaper than raising the River and getting 3-bet, but that only applies when you are against a set and have improved.

Looking at possible hands: Ignoring the wide range of possibilities on the flop, by the Turn I think we can safely say 88, 77, 22, 78, J8, J7 with less likely T9, A8, A7, 55, 66 (we can pretty much ignore AA/JJ/72/82 given the opponent). But it is also worth pointing out that there are more combinations of unpaired hands than pairs (77 can be dealt 6 ways, 78 10 ways as there are the 4 suited combinations, which are impossible with paired hands). The paired hands make up 18 likely hands (77/88/22) and 10 possible hands (T9), the other hands make up 30 plus 32. Mathematically at least, 2-pair is 2:1 the most likely hand.

This initally makes the play on the River appear neutral EV; I gain 1 bet when ahead when he calls my raise, and lose 2 when behind (opposed to just calling). I can expect to be ahead roughly 2 out of 3 times, mathematically at least. However, given the possibility opponent sometimes 3-bets the River with 2-pair AND that many opponents will slow-play a flopped set, I think this swings it in favour of raising the River.

Discuss?

[joker122]

Very player dependent. Given your read, I don't like your river play. If he's decent and has any hand reading ability this raise is probably bad. You played your hand like a big pair or something like AJ/KJ and this is probably what he put you on. If his 2pair is counterfitted he will check call the river to induce a bluff as the only hand he beats are unimproved high cards or a hand like 66. So, if he's decent (actually, if he's good) he'll know that only a better hand is calling the river and thus a bet has no value. If he's a clown the raise is good though.

Also, The jack is a bad turn card because he could have been getting aggressive with T9 which would make me less inclined to raise.

Oh, and capping the river is way out of line.

[naphand]

He was not "decent", he was more selective than other players, so I was watching him closely. I knew he over-defended his blinds, but did not have a handle on his aggression. This River play pretty much earned him the curly green wig, though the rest of the hand was fine. I can only imagine he put me on a bluff raise (yay, so obviously a 3-bet works... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif).

[joker122]

Well obviously your read is better than mine, so if you thought raising was correct than it probably was. I just thought it would help (you, or anyone else) to explain those ideas about that sort of river situation.

[naphand]

I would not go so far as to say my read is necessarily "right". It was here, at the time I felt it was but obviously there was sufficient doubt to merit a post.

In HFAP there is some discussion about situations like this, and I believe the advice offered there, in the face on an unknown opponent, was to narrow down the reasonable/possible hands and then make a decision based on the mathematical probability alone. I think my further analysis has shown it is pretty marginal and not obviously one way or the other. Personally I feel that a raise was slightly preferable, but it's not a compelling argument by any means... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[tripdad]

i would have capped the flop, then raised the turn/called 3-bet exactly as you did.

your river play was excellent, as it looks as if you have counerfeited your opponent's 2-pair. whenever i feel i am behind on the turn, and the river pairs the board while i have an overpair, i usually raise and i'm usually right. the only times it backfires is when the piar on board makes a boat, but i am careful to determine the most likely 2-pair before i raise. good play!

cheers!