SitnGo Heads Up question

[slimbob]

A friend and I had a little discussion about the following situation:
SitnGo
You are the big stack with only one opponent left.
Blinds are 400/800
The other opponent has less then 800 left and is all-in in the BB.
You have 82o in the small blind.
I say: This is a clear fold because u have only a chance of 37% to win this hand and and I dont want that the shortstack wins my 400 chips that i have to put in. I wait for a better hand.
He says: You have to call, because of the situation and nobody knows your next couple of hands.

So the question is: Call or fold?

Any comments are highly appreciated.

[ChuckNorris]

You have to call. You have a chance of winning the tournament, and it'll cost you less than SB. If you fold, you're giving him a free chance to build up his stack. Folding is absolutely horrible.

[trumpman84]

this is my advice. I've won much more tournaments than I've gotten third or first. Once the small stack is below a certain point (below or around 1,000 in an 8,000 chip tournament or below or around 2,000 in a 15,000 chip tournament, etc.) force them all in every hand and call every one of their all ins. If they double up..fine, use your good play to get them back to that point and try again...you'll still be a huge stack favorite. You're just trying to the end the tournament at this point..and you can use your big stack to your advantage and force him all in a lot. Sure, any one given time he might be a 60% favorite...but if he is a 60% favorite in 3 hands while he is all in...chances are he loses one of those.

if your opp is in the big blind with 800 and you've already called from the small blind, a fold will give him a 100% chance of giving him 2400. A call will give him a 60% (depending on the cards of course) chance of him getting 3200....its only 800 more.

[slimbob]

Thanks for the answers but I am not convinced.
I prefer fold and wait one or two hands for a better possibility.
If the difference of the stacks is so high 1000 against 8000 or 2000 against 15000 I agree 100%.
I should mentioned the difference of the chips in this special case.
It was 4100 against 700.
After the blinds it was 3700 against 0.
If I fold its 3700 against 1100 and i have two more possibilities to go all-in:
First: 3700 against 1100
Second: 2600 against 2200.
for the case I call and the opponent wins its
3300 against 1500 and i can go only one time all-in:
3300 against 1500
When I loose this hand its 1800 against 3000.
So in this special case (82o in SB)I prefer to fold.
If its 8000 against 1000 or something like that the situation is a clear call thats obvious.

[patrick dicaprio]

you should call here evrytime. the mere fact that you may not win 37% of the time isnt the only factor. do you see wht?

Pat

[zephyr]

My immediate reaction was "you have to call".

Let's analyse: at this point in an sng, the blinds are so high relative to your stack that your chances of finishing 1st is equal to the percentage of the total chips that you hold.

If you call you have a 37% chance of winning 1st.

If you call you have a 63% chance of losing the hand making it 3400-1400.

With this chip count you have aprox 3400/4800=.708 chance of taking first and a 1-.708= .292 chance of taking second.

So the chance of you losing the all-in and then finishing first is ~ 0.63*0.708 = 0.446, and likewise the chance of you losing the all-in and then finishing second is 0.63*0.292=0.184.

So by taking this line (calling) you have a 37% + 44.6% = 81.6% chance of taking first, and an 18.4% chance of taking second.

Now if you fold the chip count becomes 3700-1100.

This gives you a 3700/4800 = 0.771 = 77.1% chance of winning, and a 22.9% chance of finishing second.

In summary,

Call: 81.6% chance of winning
Fold: 77.1% chance of winning

Now, the only point one could argue here is the assumption that "your chances of finishing 1st is equal to the percentage of the total chips that you hold". Of course this statement is not entirely correct because skill still plays some roll at this level. But how much? And more importantly, how does this affect the results calculated above?

Basically, the poster needs to ask;

What are my chance of winning when the chip count is 3400-1400?
What are my chance of winning when the chip count is 3700-1100?

Then perform the above calculations and make a reasonable decision.

Personally, I call here everytime.

Best of luck,

Zephyr

[DemonDeac Holding Rockets]

CALL!!! CALL!!! CALL!!!
you dont know what ur opponent has. ur two cards have a 50% chance of winning against any two random, non paired, cards.

[zephyr]

Unfortunately your stats are a touch off. 82o has an ~37% chance against any two cards. How did you possibly rule out that your opponent holds a pair?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately your stats are a touch off. 82o has an ~37% chance against any two cards. How did you possibly rule out that your opponent holds a pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. If you think 82o is 50% against a random hand, you need to read up a little before playing again.

This to me is an easy call unless I know that I have a huge advantage based on skill (like when crazy tight players get heads up and they fold to 75+% of my raises).

If you assume similar skill, winning chances are proportional to your stack size.

So, it's just a simple EV question. You're about 37% to win and you have to put in 25% of the pot.

To make this simple, let's suppose the 82o is 33.3%. A call is still correct.

2/3 times you lose 400 chips
1/3 times you win 1200 chips

1200-(400*2)=400. So, you average a 400 chip win by calling. And, we lowered the odds from 37% to 33.3%, so in reality you win slightly more.

Seems easy to me... Someone let me know if I made a mistake.

-Jman28

[rachelwxm]

It's a easy call.
Since 82o is 1:1.7 underdog against any two cards on average. And you are getting 1:3 assuming the other guy have full bb and you complete from sb. It's positive EV call. /images/graemlins/cool.gif