Semibluff that hits ... sort of.

[ctide]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (7 handed)

BB ($142.10)
UTG ($142.30)
Hero ($201.35)
MP2 ($93)
CO ($100)
Button ($103.60)
SB ($75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $2, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP2 folds, CO (poster) folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($17) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG calls $8.

Turn: ($33) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG calls $15.

River: ($63) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets $45</font>, Hero?

UTG is not awful, a little loose preflop, but decent post flop play.

[schwza]

i'd raise more pre-flop, esp. with that extra post in there. make it 10 - taking down the pot now would be a fine result.

the flop is fine although i would have bet more.

i would check behind on the turn. you're gonna feel real dumb if you get check-raised big and have to fold your nut draw.

i really have no idea what to do on the river. villain is playing it like the A gave him 2 pair on the river. i'm sure if i were playing i'd unhappily call, but i'm not convinced you should. if had been sitting on a hand like KJ the whole time, why would he come to life with a decent bet right now? you've gotta be right ~30% of the time to call here - i guess call it, but i'm not psyched about it.

[pshreck]

I get a feeling that he was slow playing trips. When the ace hits on the river, he is afraid that you may not bet your jacks (which is what he would put you on) so he leads out.

If he wasn't slowplaying trips, then another hand that makes sense is AJ. It would definetly make sense when he leads out on the river.

Other hands that he could bet with are AQ and AK... players in these games hold on to these hands to the river often... is this player weak enough to do this?

The other possibility is he was on some kind of wacky draw (lower diamonds, 34 or 45 on a gutshot straight draw) and he misses, but tries to steal your pot when the A hits.

However... it seems like when the A hits he is really trying to make you look at it and fold. I think I would flat call the bet, if he had trips or AJ so be it, but I think the play at this level is so incredibly weak that you have to make this call.

[ctide]

[ QUOTE ]
However... it seems like when the A hits he is really trying to make you look at it and fold. I think I would flat call the bet, if he had trips or AJ so be it, but I think the play at this level is so incredibly weak that you have to make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right. I laid it down because I didn't get the impression that he was tricky enough to try and make a play on it here. I felt pretty certain that his actions screamed AJ.

[josie_wales]

Hey Pal,

Raise a touch more PF. To $9 should do it.

Pot it on the flop (as you did basically).

But, on the turn, take the free card. You may hit your flush, but if not, it helps you in river situations such as this hand.

If you check the turn, and the A comes on the flop, you only have $14 invested.

So, his 3/4 pot bet will now be about $24, as opposed to $45.

While it offers you the same odds you have two advantages now:

1) If you call and lose, you only lose $24 more as opposed to $45.
2) If you fell that folding is best, you lose your $14 invest instead of $29
3) Dont forget that you also took a free card against someone that you could very well be behind.

All signs point to check.

(NOTE)
At first I was thinking that betting BIG may be another choice...but really only hands that your are behind will call you in that case.

jw

[cornell2005]

preflop: fine
flop: fine
turn: check
river: as you played it, in this game, its likely more profitable to fold. people dont bluff aces often here, especially after check calling the flop and turn. the mistake is in the turn however. if you check the turn, you can call the river

[Implied Evens]

"in this game, its likely more profitable to fold. people dont bluff aces often here, especially after check calling the flop and turn. the mistake is in the turn however. if you check the turn, you can call the river"

I agree. UTG limped in PF and was strong enough to call your bet on the flop. This leads me to believe that he's paired the board with an overcard (possible A) - and that he feels you probably have an overpair (based on the PF raise and the fact that you didn't try to shut him out on the flop) so folding on the river is a good play against what is now likely 2 pair against your pair of Aces.

My question to you is: Why make a half-pot bet that UTG can afford to call on the flop and again on the river? In a heads up situation I'd try to get him out on the flop instead of betting a come hand for value - not enough callers to make good odds for your draw...

Just a thought.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]

My question to you is: Why make a half-pot bet that UTG can afford to call on the flop and again on the river? In a heads up situation I'd try to get him out on the flop instead of betting a come hand for value - not enough callers to make good odds for your draw...

Just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. my standard line is always to bet 2/3 or 3/4 the pot on the flop HU. i neglected his bet size when i commented on the flop