counter-intuitive

[schwza]

i was just checking out two dimes (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/) to see how much i had the worst of it in a short-stack all-in confrontation. my K8 was a 34 - 66 dog against AT:

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Ah 1120079 65.41 585148 34.17 7077 0.41 0.656
8s Kd 585148 34.17 1120079 65.41 7077 0.41 0.344

just checking out some hands, i was very surprised to see that i would have been (slightly) better off if i had had 58 instead of K8!

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Ah 1113909 65.05 591026 34.52 7369 0.43 0.653
8s 5d 591026 34.52 1113909 65.05 7369 0.43 0.347

i thought i had been playing this game long enough to not be surprised about heads up pre-flop all-in numbers. anyone else surprised by this?

[Ghazban]

Not really; 85 has straight possibilities that K8 doesn't have. In all-in calculations, having straights and flushes working for you is always nice. Its also good to be further from your opponent's cards as that frees up more straights you can make that he doesn't have cards for. For example, (again from twodimes):

Ac Ah 1410336 82.36 292660 17.09 9308 0.54 0.826
Kc Kh 292660 17.09 1410336 82.36 9308 0.54 0.174

vs.

Ac Ah 1364608 79.69 343300 20.05 4396 0.26 0.798
7s 7d 343300 20.05 1364608 79.69 4396 0.26 0.202

You're actually significantly better off (well, 3% better off anyway) with 7s against aces than with kings, particularly if you aren't sharing suits. So, despite KK being a much better hand tha 77 most of the time, its actually a little bit worse if you can guarantee that you are up against aces.

[schwza]

i was personally suprised that the straight considerations outweighed the pair-over-pair when AT hits a T and 8x hits the x (where x = K or 5).

making a straight with 85 is pretty unlikely, but two particular pair cards hitting seems reasonably possible.

[PokerSlut]

Not really. 58 can make a straight 256 ways. How many ways can you hit a K holding K8? 3.

[amoeba]

your odds of getting a pairing a K when you hold Kx
is much higher than your odds of getting a straight when you hold 58.

[PokerSlut]

You're right, I have no idea what the hell I was thinking. Maybe I should stop doing ten things at once.