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parappa
09-10-2004, 03:25 AM
Party 10+1. 5-handed. Blinds 50/100
UTG (365)
Hero (455)
Button (3000)
SB (0, forced all-in)
BB (4000)

UTG folds. Hero has AsKs.

3rd is clearly my goal, but there's no way I can fold this, is there?

Gramps
09-10-2004, 04:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]
there's no way I can fold this, is there?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. It sucks if BB calls and outdraws you, but with the BB only at 100, you don't have a clear track to 3rd. If UTG wins one hand, now he has the inside track. You're a pretty good favorite against the range of hands BB would call you with - and if you fold him and button out, you'll still pick up a few chips (# depending on whether you beat SB's random hand). The only super-shatty scenario here (before the cards are flipped) is if the button AND BB were to call you, but that seems highly unlikely.

Plus, if BB calls and you win, you have close to 1,000 chips to play with - giving you some folding equity, and a shot to make a comeback and finish 2nd or 1st...after 3rd is wrapped up, of course.

Now, if the BB were, say, 400 (forcing UTG all-in on the next hand), then that would be a tougher decision...but it seems like a push would still be in order (since if SB won the hand, you'd be forced all-in before the BB got back around to him - meaning SB and UTG would both have to lose their all-in hand for you to fold into the money).