A Couple of Basic Pre-Flop Hands

[parappa]

#1

PP 10+1 9-handed. Blinds 50/100

SB 830
BB 1825
UTG 740
UTG+1 810
MP1 465
Hero 525
CO 1620
Button 1190

UTG Limps. UTG+1 Folds. MP Folds. Hero has A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif


#2

Party 10+1 6-handed. Blinds 100/200
SB 725
BB 635
UTG 2135
Hero 1570
CO 1520
Button 940

UTG folds. Hero has 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[unformed]

#1: Fold or push. You need to make a move soon and this may be the best hand you get for the next few hands. You may be able to take the pot right there, and hope for it.

#2: Limp in, expecting to fold or if you don't hit a set or other pair on the flop. You have enough chips you don't need to push .... just look for the set

I'm no pro, but that's what I would do.

[NotMitch]

Hand #1 push

Hnad #2 push or fold, dont limp. Limping is the worst play by far. Leaning towards a push if you have been playing very tightly and because the big stack cant call.

[kevyk]

My feeling is that both hands are clear pushes.

The first hand, your stack is small enough that you can't make a raise without pot-committing yourself. I can't believe that it could be correct to fold here, especially if it is folded to you in late position; similarly, you can't call for 20% of your stack.

The second hand is a push because folding a pocket pair at this point is pretty silly, expecially since no one has shown strength. Calling 15% of your stack fishing for trips seems to be pretty weak as well. You're better off making a play for the blinds. I say push because other than the CO, you have everyone behind you covered by a mile. The short stacks will have to have a hand to call you here.

[Victor]

Hand 1 is an easy push. You have are pretty shortstacked and can only last another round so this hand looks pretty good. You have an A so you can win unimproved and your kicker is pretty good. Push and hopefully it is folded to the limper who will call with a middle suited connector. A low pocket pair is also a possibility but a coinflip is a good situation for you here.

Hand 2: I assume the blinds will not go up in the next couple hands so you will face 100/200 blinds. So this is a fold. THe reason is your position is bad and at best you will be a coinflip and one of the blinds will def call you. Delay since you can last another round. However, you must go for a blind steal when you get the chance next in LP.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
The short stacks will have to have a hand to call you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the short stacks will probably call with just about any 2 cards here, especially the BB. Their stacks in relation to the blinds are so small that with the money already in the pot they pretty much have to call. This will most likely force a race which you do not want right now. This is a bubble situation where you need to play uber tight in EP and steal blinds from LP.

[adanthar]

#1 is a push, IMO, although it's relatively close if UTG is a tight player. Change this to A8 and it's a fold.

[ QUOTE ]
The second hand is a push because folding a pocket pair at this point is pretty silly, expecially since no one has shown strength. Calling 15% of your stack fishing for trips seems to be pretty weak as well. You're better off making a play for the blinds. I say push because other than the CO, you have everyone behind you covered by a mile. The short stacks will have to have a hand to call you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is terrible.

You are risking over 1500 chips to win 150 (incidentally, limping would be 6.5% of your stack, not 15%) in a tournament with bad players that will call with all sorts of trash. Of course, you don't care how bad their trash is, because 98o still almost ties you.

If the blinds were 150/300 with the same chip counts, a push would be much better. At this level, there is zero point to doing it other than losing a big chunk of your stack against KTo or a pair of sixes. You'd be better off raising, though I don't like this much either against short stacks which can pot commit you; IMO, the best play is to limp/fold to a raise.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]


This is terrible.

You are risking over 1500 chips to win 150 (incidentally, limping would be 6.5% of your stack, not 15%) in a tournament with bad players that will call with all sorts of trash. Of course, you don't care how bad their trash is, because 98o still almost ties you.

If the blinds were 150/300 with the same chip counts, a push would be much better. At this level, there is zero point to doing it other than losing a big chunk of your stack against KTo or a pair of sixes. You'd be better off raising, though I don't like this much either against short stacks which can pot commit you; IMO, the best play is to limp/fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds are 100/200 not 50/100. Limp/fold is awful here. And it sucks at 50/100 too.

[SmileyEH]

easy push in both cases. Doing anything other than folding is criminal....and folding is pretty criminal too.

-SmileyEH

[NegativeEV]

I don't disagree that hand one is a push. Hand two is a fold IMO. With hero on a strong stack, 6 players left and 4 left to act in this hand, folding a baby PP is correct here. A push would be correct if any of the following were true:

1.) Hero's stack was smaller (forces hero's action).

2.) Hero was Button (maybe CO if button has a stack size similar to the blinds in this case).

3.) There were 4 players left (bubble).

4.) Hero was a signficant stack leader with a relatively uniform field (i.e. similar medium/small stack for other players).

In this specific instance, hero has a strong stack but is crippled if he get's called and loses on a push. It is still too early to make this move given the number of players, relative stack sizes and the vulernability of a weak hand like 55.

These thoughts are for the $11-$55 tables. I have little experience at $109/$215.

[schlach]

Strong agree. Hand #1, push. Hand #2, fold. The arguments have been outlined well already, just moderating-up what I think is the correct action. It's the wrong time to overvalue baby pairs with too much field left to act.

[ddubois]

No one thinks a small raise with 55 is a viable option? Something like t500, or maybe even a minraise?

There's t300 out there to fight for. Weigh that against the likelihood of someone having a hand they are willing to come over the top with. If you were behind here in this tournament, what range of hands would you come over the top with here? Is Top 10%? (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html) wishful thinking, i.e. unrealistically tight? Odds of no one having a top10% hand is roughly .9*.9*.9*.9=65%, right?

Also, CO is the only stack you really fear. If CO comes over the top, you can fold, and if one of the blinds desparately throws in his last ~200, you can call.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
No one thinks a small raise with 55 is a viable option? Something like t500, or maybe even a minraise?

There's t300 out there to fight for. Weigh that against the likelihood of someone having a hand they are willing to come over the top with. If you were behind here in this tournament, what range of hands would you come over the top with here? Is Top 10%? wishful thinking, i.e. unrealistically tight? Odds of no one having a top10% hand is roughly .9*.9*.9*.9=65%, right?

Also, CO is the only stack you really fear. If CO comes over the top, you can fold, and if one of the blinds desparately throws in his last ~200, you can call.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of thoughts:

1.) I think top 10% may be unrealistic. The SB and BB are close to desparation levels, and they may be ready to take a probable 50/50 shot now (when winning would give them a solid shot at a high placing) rather than wait until they are so low that a 50/50 shot would not even give them a shot at third. This would be my thinking if I were one of the blinds (given their chip stacks) and would cause me to open up and RR with more than top 10%.

2.) A min raise would give the BB 3.5:1 to call (the pot would be 700 and he'd have to put in 200 to call). Few hands are a 3.5:1 dog preflop, so you've made a call from the blind correct in a case where you DON'T want to be called.

3.) Putting in T400 or T500 is ~ 30% of your stack which is VERY close to committing you. I'm generally NOT willing to put in 30% of my stack when I am UNwilling to put in the whole lot. You are still in a solid chip position here and your place in this hand makes this play very speculative IMO. Why make such a risky play when you don't yet need to?

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
A min raise would give the BB 3.5:1 to call (the pot would be 700 and he'd have to put in 200 to call). Few hands are a 3.5:1 dog preflop, so you've made a call from the blind correct in a case where you DON'T want to be called.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, this is probably a good argument for 500 rather than 400. It's true I would really hate for anyone to smooth call.

Tell me if you agree with this: With a 500 bet, it should be clear to the small stacks that they cannot raise enough to make you fold, so your fold equity (against them specifically), should be the same with a 500 bet as with a push. In fact, some of your opponents might even interpret a push as weakness, and a 500 bet as a hand that wants some action. (Sometimes I almost feel non-pushes have more fold equity! Clouded perceptions, maybe.)

Also, you may be overstating how much I fear a call here. If I get called by a desparate stack, I'm more likely to be ahead than behind. I'm 1.1:1 against top25% hands, 1.2:1 against top 40%. Picking up BB or SB's stack puts me in the chip lead. (They could easily push with a hand I dominate, like Ax or Kxs, where x is lower than 6.)

It seems to me, you can look at this situation as a risk, sure, but you can also look at it as an opportunity to accumulate chips.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me if you agree with this: With a 500 bet, it should be clear to the small stacks that they cannot raise enough to make you fold, so your fold equity (against them specifically), should be the same with a 500 bet as with a push. In fact, some of your opponents might even interpret a push as weakness, and a 500 bet as a hand that wants some action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but that does not change the fact that they may well be correct to push in here with many hands. There stacks are around the level where they may be better off taking a coin toss now (most hands really are close to a coin toss) rather than take a probale coin toss later when their stack is too low to be useful. My point is that your 55 does not want a call, and the chip stacks of the blinds are such that your folding equity may be very little.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, you may be overstating how much I fear a call here. If I get called by a desparate stack, I'm more likely to be ahead than behind. I'm 1.1:1 against top25% hands, 1.2:1 against top 40%. Picking up BB or SB's stack puts me in the chip lead. (They could easily push with a hand I dominate, like Ax or Kxs, where x is lower than 6.)

It seems to me, you can look at this situation as a risk, sure, but you can also look at it as an opportunity to accumulate chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess for me it comes down to the thought that you generally want to avoid PROBABLE SLIGHT advantages (i.e. a 1.1:1) in a tournament setting when taking them has a severly negative impact. The theory that a chip lost is more problematic than a chip gained is beneficiary (or however it is explained in TPFAP) rings in my ears in these types of situations. Said another way, losing here is more detrimental than winning is beneficial.

I think this may change as you move up in tourney level as you may need to exercise smaller advantages in higher tourneys than you need to in lower levels like $11-$55 (as PM explained, your opportunities for advantages are less at the $109 & $215 tables so you need to take smaller edges).

I'm open to being convinced that folding is not correct here, but with the specifics in this example, I'm just a long way from it.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
you generally want to avoid PROBABLE SLIGHT advantages (i.e. a 1.1:1) in a tournament

[/ QUOTE ]
But it's only 1.1:1 when you are called. Surely some percentage of the time greater than 0 you will pick up the blinds uncontested. Would anyone care to venture a guess of the frequency of that event?

Do these estimates seem reasonable:
40% of the time everyone folds, +120EV
20% of the time CO/button re-raises, -100 EV.
18% of the time blind confrontation losing ~680, -120EV
22% of the time blind confrontation winning ~680, +150EV
= total +50EV

Folding is 0EV. But another way of looking at that since each orbit costs 450 to play, each hand of an orbit with 6 players is costing you on average -75 to sit there and do nothing. I.e. you don't have all day.

I'm by no means convinced I'm correct, I'm probably wrong. But I don't think I'm very wrong. In any case, I think it's good to work these things through, debate some ideas, rather than just blithely accept what I'm told.

PS: IMHO, if you swap CO and Hero, pushing this hand is by far the right play.

[patrick dicaprio]

at the 10+1 you will almost certainly be called if you push with the first hand. if he calls with any pair, any ace then you are a coinflip, which i guess is what you want if you are not going to win it right there. but with the certainly you will be called pushing here is marginal. but you need to get lucky anyway.

on the second hand i would push here readily. you have the largest stack of the remaining players and probably wont be called unless the opponents have a big hand, but even against some set of those, i.e. AK or AQ you are a favorite. even if you are called you are not out unless the CO calls. i tend to gamble here more than most.

Pat