IND vs. NE

[craig r]

I am going to be taking NE -3 tonight (buying down to 2.5). I have heard a lot of reasons for taking IND tonight, and all of them seem to already be factored into the line. But, my best reason for taking NE (or what I think is my best reason) is that everybody and their mom is taking IND. Almost every person on every board I visit, mentions taking IND. Plus, for the last few weeks I have been telling myself "as this game gets closer to game time, the money is going to come in on IND." And after looking over both teams lineups and all subjective factors, I feel NE wins by a field goal +. Sorry for the rambled thoughts. Please fade away.

Also, i like the under on this game as well (not betting it). There is no reason that NE should be favored by 3 and have this high of a total. their defense is why they win. i think the books have overadjusted for the new rules (or the enforcement of old rules). Usually the fav/over is correlatd. But, I think it is opposite in this game. If IND wins, the game goes over and if NE wins, the game stays under.

craig.

[MicroBob]

I'm with you on this now.

I saw a line that went to NE -3.5 (+110) and decided to take it.

I've also gone with the under because of the really windy conditions there. They also have a chance for rain tonight.

Also, because of the weather, I decided to go with a weird one as I was paging through the prop-bets.

Longest Successful FG 43 yds and under (-115).

I'll just enjoy screaming at my TV everytime they line up a 45-yarder.


With my sports-predicting abilities I will not be at all surprised to go 0-for-3.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
I saw a line that went to NE -3.5 (+110) and decided to take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a huge difference in the line I have and NE -3.5. As far as widely available numbers, I have a 3 (but remember I bought to 2.5). But, even though you are getting + odds, now, NE has to win by more than a fieldgoal. the favorite wins by a FG approx. 10% of the time (pretty big number). Hopefully, for you, it won't matter at all tonight. But, in the long run, you need to search for a better line, buy it down to 3, or pass if 3.5 is the best you can get. But, there are plenty of places with 3's currently. Good luck, either way though.

craig

[MicroBob]

Thanks for the advice.

I am a total newbie to this sports-betting stuff and am betting really small (and will continue to do so even if I get good at this). I just like participating in the discussions....but your ideas of the difference between 3 and 3.5 are valid.

I'm only on 2 sportsbooks and those are both tied-in with pokerrooms.

I saw the line move from -4 (even, i think) to -3.5 at +105 to 3.5 at +110 and decided to take it.

The other book I'm looking at has NE -3 at -115.

I guess the 2nd line is like paying a little bit for insurance to get that push if it is exactly a 3-point margin.

Again, since i'm betting small and more for fun it really is inconsequential to me.


I was actually interested in the ML on IND when it was +165 yesterday. By the time I checked it today it was +150....and now is down to +140 on one book (still +155 on another).
Good gracious, should have grabbed it when I could. I thought +165 was a good price, but I confirmed my hunch too late.

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
Longest Successful FG 43 yds and under (-115).

I'll just enjoy screaming at my TV everytime they line up a 45-yarder.


With my sports-predicting abilities I will not be at all surprised to go 0-for-3.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW! I can't believe you took that prop bet when the 2 best kickers in the NFL are facing off. The windy in conditions are probably just going to lead to shorten drives and bad passes, probably will not effect the feild goals. You better hope they don't attempt a feild goal 43+, cause if they do your not gonna be looking to good. Also Looking for a better line on the game beside +3.5 would definately be a good idea.

[MicroBob]

Oh well.
You guys should just be happy there are squares like me to help give you the lines you want.

I'm a MUCH better poker player than I am a sports-handicapper (and I'm not really a very good poker player) and I'm betting right now as much for fun as anything else.


I have a friend whom I bump into occasionally who really knows his stuff handicapping. Has been studying the teams and making his own charts pretty hard the past weeks preparing for fottball season. Shops like mad for the best line the final 20 minutes before game-time, etc.
Anyway, he's knowledgeable on the mathematics involved and I trust his judgement.

I'll pick his brain some and possibly try some better books.

As I continue to do this I know I'll get better.

Right now, I'm definitely more knowledgeable in baseball than football so I guess I have a lot of TV to watch.


Anyway, regarding the longest-FG thing.
I was watching the Agassi-Federer match this afternoon at the US-Open and the wind was blowing the ball all over the place.

Foxboro has gusts up to 30mph right now.
As I watch the national anthem it looks fairly windy...and was I seeing rain??

Since I tok the under AND the FG thing I'm hoping for plenty of wind and rain.

Of course, if it's a cross-wind that will make long FG's very difficult.
If one team has the strong wind to their backs then they might kick some kind of Tom Dempsey 63-yarder for all I know.

We'll see how it goes.

[ftball0000]

just saw the o/u line move from 44 to 44.5. Looks like the smart money is on the over, from what I've been told.

enjoy the game... I will!!

-Ftball

[Jimbo]

I hope you are wrong, I took Indy to win outright at +160. Game is currently tied 10 to 10 so as long as it stays close I still have a shot.

Jimbo

[MicroBob]

To recap, I had:

NE +3.5
Under 44.5
No FG longer than 43yds

My sucker-prop bet is also the only one that salvaged anything (Veniteri had a 43-yarder and Vanderjagt missed the 48-yarder at the end).

Weather wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it was going to be (excuses, excuses).

Let this game be a lesson to me regarding the huge difference between 3 and 3.5. A valuable lesson learned (inexpensively too).

Once you guys started clobbering me on the -3.5 thing I just KNEW that NE would win by 3. Well, at least I'm happy for you guys who got a push on it!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jimbo]

What a miserable performance by Indy. 3 turnovers in the red zone, the only NE sack comes in the last minute and Mr. Perfect misses his 1st FG attempt since Jesus was in diapers.

Jimbo

[jwvdcw]

very lucky to have won your bet here. Congrats nevertheless.

[TM1212]

Congrats on the prop bet, I am amazed you won that of all your bets. I would try to aviod the prop bets like that one in the future, unless profit isn't important just fun, then go wild with them.
I had the same feeling as you I knew the .5 would kill you! I felt bad for ya, but next time youll definately find that better line. Good luck in your future football betting!