Beane, Moneyball, Evidence, Faith, and Folklore

[sfer]

Oakland tops the AL West, although it's close, again. Beane is in the NY Times again today, and the same Moneyball discussions are brought up again.

At one point, even taking into account postseason failure, can one point to Beane and Oakland and state, with some reasonable level of confidence, that he's probably on to something? When do the medium to longish term results of the past 5 or so years in Oakland become compelling enough to overturn a century of baseball lore and belief?

[mikeyvegas]

Moneyball aside, it always helps when you can throw Zito, Mulder, and Hudson at opposing hitters.

[bugstud]

As I've said before, I want to see him with a real payroll and see what happens. That being said, his disicples haven't set the world on fire as of yet, so give it another 2-3 and if toronto and LA are also winning, we'll have some converts.

[ThaSaltCracka]

he's found a way for his team to make the playoffs with consistency. However, his teams have also lost in the playoffs consistently.

Toronto is a long way from doing anything.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Toronto is a long way from doing anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Toronto has a pretty dang good farm system, if they can avoid pitcher injuries they'll be good sooner than you think. Of course they'll still be in the AL East, so they may never get close to the playoffs regardless of how good they are.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
Moneyball aside, it always helps when you can throw Zito, Mulder, and Hudson at opposing hitters.

[/ QUOTE ]

I second this, its unclear how much of oaklands success should be attributed to beane's maneuvers vs. getting lucky? with 3 stud arms.

[andyfox]

L.A. is winning; so is Boston.

I'm reading a new book about the history of baseball statistics called "The Numbers Game" by Alan Schwartz. He points out that the original box scores only listed runs and outs. We've come full circle, I guess, with Bill James's runs created/27 outs. Make sense: you get only 27 outs and you win games by scoring more runs than the other team.

[andyfox]

Toronto is fighting New York and Boston; both have spent tons of money which Toronto doesn't have.

On base percentage is important; so is $.

[sfer]

All 3 have played their entire major league careers with Oakland, I believe. I don't know if they were drafted by Beane or traded for, but does it matter the difference? Maybe he was lucky, but having 3 great young arms could have been his savvy as well, no?

[bosoxfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Moneyball aside, it always helps when you can throw Zito, Mulder, and Hudson at opposing hitters.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's the part that baffles me. How you can have those 3 and not be able to win a 5 game series.

[sfer]

Also, it seems pretty early to negatively judge 5 collective years at Toronto, LA, and Boston while largely dismissing 5 very good years at Oakland.

[sfer]

Giambi didn't slide.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
All 3 have played their entire major league careers with Oakland, I believe. I don't know if they were drafted by Beane or traded for, but does it matter the difference? Maybe he was lucky, but having 3 great young arms could have been his savvy as well, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, all drafted by oakland under beane

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
L.A. is winning; so is Boston.

I'm reading a new book about the history of baseball statistics called "The Numbers Game" by Alan Schwartz. He points out that the original box scores only listed runs and outs. We've come full circle, I guess, with Bill James's runs created/27 outs. Make sense: you get only 27 outs and you win games by scoring more runs than the other team.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's an excellent book, I agree

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
he's found a way for his team to make the playoffs with consistency. However, his teams have also lost in the playoffs consistently.

Toronto is a long way from doing anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I note the Red Sox/Theo Epstein are conspicuously absent from your post.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I knew you would surface!!!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I didn't say anything about the Red Sox because I still firmly believe that they do not follow the "Moneyball" approach simply because they are able to have a $100 million plus payroll.


I checked out to see if Beane drafted his big three, and yes, he did, although I am not sure on the year. Luckliy for him though, he has been able to keep them for a while, with all three of them having fairly small contracts.

[sfer]

I'm pretty sure that Bill James is an active consultant for the Sox. The New Yorker ran a hastily written article following him evaluating some trade ideas last summer after Moneyball was published.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure that Bill James is an active consultant for the Sox.

[/ QUOTE ] I think your right.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I was just looking at some team stats, Boston is way up their in almost every offensive and pitching category, but there were two other teams near the top in many categories as well.... Minnesota and Anaheim. I think there is a chance Anaheim might catch Oakland, and Minnesota looks really good right now. All things consider, this years playoffs, especially the AL's will be awesome, maybe even better than last year.

[sfer]

I hope so. The races have been pretty exciting on their own so far.

[ThaSaltCracka]

my predictions:
AL East-Yankees are able to hold off Boston
AL Central-Twins duh!
AL West- Anaheim
WC- Boston

Twins beat Yankees, Boston beats Anaheim
Boston beats Twins

NL East- Atlanta
NL Central- St. Louis
NL West- LA
WC- San Franciso, I don't think Houston can keep their pace up

St. Louis beats SF
LA beats Atlanta
St.Louis beats LA

St. Louis ties Boston for the WS /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Boris]

Zito was drafted by the Rangers and subsequently traded to Oakland as a minor leaguer. Mulder was a hot prospect on everyone's list so it wasn't like he was a secret. Alot of peopel passed on Hudson and Harden. Beane should get credit for those two and for picking up Zito as a minor leaguer.

[Boris]

There's alot of luck in a 5 game series and the A's don't run the based very well.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Zito was drafted by the Rangers and subsequently traded to Oakland as a minor leaguer.

[/ QUOTE ] apparently Zito was originally drafted by the M's, but he never signed with them /images/graemlins/confused.gif, it must have been the year afterwards that Texas drafted him.

[bosoxfan]

[ QUOTE ]
All things consider, this years playoffs, especially the AL's will be awesome, maybe even better than last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last years playoffs sucked.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Zito was drafted by the Rangers and subsequently traded to Oakland as a minor leaguer.

[/ QUOTE ] apparently Zito was originally drafted by the M's, but he never signed with them /images/graemlins/confused.gif, it must have been the year afterwards that Texas drafted him.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6394

Barry Zito #75 | Starting Pitcher | Oakland Athletics
Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 Bats: L Throws: L
Born: May 13, 1978 - Las Vegas, NV College: USC
Draft: 1999 - 1st round (9th overall) by the Oakland Athletics

What am I missing here

[B00T]

He was originally drafted by Seattle in the 59th round of the 96 free agent draft but went to college. Then he was selected by Texas in the 98 draft, but again returned to college. In 99, he was drafted in the 1st round (9th overall pick) by Oakland.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Last years playoffs sucked

[/ QUOTE ] why?

[ThaSaltCracka]

There you go, players are routinely drafted in the draft, but for whatever reason don't sign with the team that drafted them. That is one of the reasons there are so many rounds in the baseball draft.

[sfer]

http://sportsposterwarehouse.com/warehouse/boonehomer03pf-1.jpg

[ThaSaltCracka]

haha, but that was why it was so great.

[Joe Tall]

Moneyball aside, it always helps when you can throw Zito, Mulder, and Hudson at opposing hitters.

It does?

SWEEP!
-Joe Tall

[Uston]

That's the part that baffles me. How you can have those 3 and not be able to win a 5 game series.

Stupid managing. Over the last two years, both Howe and Macha have been so terrified of using a fourth starter that they've gone back to their horses on three days rest, both times with piss-poor results.

[Uston]

You think that stopping between third and home to argue with an umpire or trying to knock down an opposing catcher instead of attempting to touch home plate constitute bad base running?