How good can you be at hand reading?

[Atropos]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($56.75)
BB ($20.75)
UTG ($20.50)
MP ($26.25)
CO ($18.30)
Hero ($55.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, SB calls $2.25, BB calls $2, MP calls $2, CO folds.

Flop: ($10.50) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP calls $6.

Turn: ($22.50) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $7.5</font>, MP calls $7.50.

River: ($37.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, MP calls $10.

Final Pot: $57.50

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP has Jd 4s (one pair, twos).
Hero has Qh Js (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $57.50. </font>

Hey folks,
I sometimes play only one table to enhance my skill, if I do so I really pay attention to what the players are doing + I'm taking lots of notes on them. This way I can get quite good reads on them.
In the hand I posted, I wanted to take a shot at the pot on the flop, I instantly knew when I was called that he didnt have a 2, since he always reraised "very good" hands.
However I never knew I had him beat, I tried to make him fold his 6 as hard as I could, and was totally surprised when I saw at the river I won. (I was more surprised about getting called though).
Now my question: How good can you be at hand reading? Are there players who constantly go all-in in situations like these, knowing they have a better high-card?

[Wayfare]

We call these players ass-backwards lucky, as you were in this hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Atropos]

In how fare was I lucky? I was the favorite preflop, flop, turn, river....
Of course I had no idea at all that I got him beat, but still is it possible to know something like that?? If you are really good + concentrate very much? Or are most of the players that weak that maybe 10% of their actions will be totally random/not possibly understandable???

[BobboFitos]

Results in white below:
MP has Jd 4s (one pair, twos).
Hero has Qh Js (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $57.50

Haha! He knew you were bluffing!!!

... Only problem was you were bluffing with the best hand...

Now my question: How good can you be at hand reading? Are there players who constantly go all-in in situations like these, knowing they have a better high-card?

No one I know would ever be able to/would bet high card queen for value. If you're really good at card reading, then Im sure people would check and call a bluff, expecting the bluffer to have high card jack or such - most people never call when they have jack high... Typically it's raise or fold, with fold being the preferred option by those who enjoy money.

There are some people I know who bet low pair on board for value, thinking (and being right) that their opponent will call with ace high. (And they earn money on this)

I typically am more conservative on the river, so in this situation, for example, I would check/fold, possibly pay the minimum just to see my opponents' cards, and being shocked that I won.

The fact your opponent called with jack high truly astounds me, as really there is no hand you would raise with PF that he could beat. None. (Ten nine sooooted? Eh... Maybe... No, not too many people raise with that either...)

[Wayfare]

Because if you can play a hand this badly to the river, get a call, and be good, you are super lucky.

If you still don't see why, i give up.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
In how fare was I lucky? I was the favorite preflop, flop, turn, river....


[/ QUOTE ]

You're lucky that you have an extremely passive opponent who will call you down with Jack high. Where the hell are these guys when I play?

[kayaker]

You got SOOOO lucky. I consider myself fairly adept at reading based solely on history and betting patterns, and I had him pegged on one of four hands: AQo, AJs, TT or 99. None of those hands are really good enough to make a major play, but all are good enough to keep calling your fairly small bets with that board.

The fact that this guy was stupid enough to keep calling w/ J4o does not confirm your superior play, just his idiocy.

Or perhaps he has a decent read on YOU, and knows that you might try to win with any two overcards. Then, all he has to do is hit a J or 4 to pair, or a 5 for the straight on the river. (Yes, I know the J would have helped you, too, but HE didn't.)

[Atropos]

How could I play this hand better?
OK the preflop raise isnt standard for me, but I had position and tried to dominate the table, with a loose-aggressive style depending solely on good reads + I noticed that the players usually didnt limp much with good hands, they rather came out raising. So I have a good chance of outfloping the A-High,K-High,Low Pocket Pair hands + got lots of bluffing equity.
At the flop I highly doubted it someone had a 2, they were bad players, but even the worst players are normally more attracted by high-card value and avoid hands with 2s in it. So I decided I had to take one shot at the pot, and wanted to convince my opponents I had AA/KK/QQ...
Then the turn, I knew he would have reraised me if he got a 2, since I thought MP was a not solid, but straight-forward player. So there were 2 possibilities: He has a 6 or a small over//underpair, or an inside-straight draw. I have beat some of his possible holdings + got some outs if he has small over//underpair + lots of bluffing equity. So I took another small shot at the pot, so I didnt get him pot commited, for having another bluff opportunitie at the river.
I simply had to bet the river, because if he had had an inside-straight draw it would have missed, but I really didnt want to show down Q-High /images/graemlins/wink.gif so I wanted to bluff him out + I hoped he would finally fold his small pair, since he was not pot commited at that point.

How would you play this??

[Atropos]

"You got SOOOO lucky. "

I just dont understand this logic at all. You are lucky if your opponent plays bad?? If in a tournament you notice that a player always slowplays AA preflop, and you raise with KK... Now this player minraises you, you push all-in and he calls. So you are LUCKY that he didnt have AA, though his play would be totally inconsistent for him if he had AA??

[BobboFitos]

How would you play this??

Great analysis regarding your own play.

That said... You gave your opponent far, far too much credit. He called you on the river with jack high. Note this player habitually thinks everyone is trying to bluff him, and will play any hand and call to the river.

[Daann]

I'm not sure how you could have thought you had a good read on all the players on the table when you tried to repeatedly bluff an obvious calling station out of the pot.

If you were going to do it, do it properly and bet 2/3 pot - full pot on the turn and the river instead of these little bets which he could have easily justified calling by saying "[censored] it, its only a tenner more".

[Atropos]

"I'm not sure how you could have thought you had a good read on all the players on the table when you tried to repeatedly bluff an obvious calling station out of the pot."

The strange thing is that I had seen him fold quite frequently before this hand, but chase crazy draws too. I was very surprised he didnt fold the river, but I think everyone here is.

"If you were going to do it, do it properly and bet 2/3 pot - full pot on the turn and the river instead of these little bets which he could have easily justified calling by saying "[censored] it, its only a tenner more". "

Thats probably one of my biggest problems when I play in these limits, because cant understand that way of thinking.
I simply dont get it, why he would call a 10$ bet with nothing, but fold to a pot size bet.
My plan in betting less than the pot size was, that I actually wanted him to think, that I want him to call, because I usually dont try to bet players out of the pot wiht AA, if there is an unscary board, as long as he doesnt have a 2. Since my whole plan of the hand was to represent a high pair, betting full pot on the turn seems quite inconsistent. On the other hand its quite probable that he will not be impressed by this "fancy" play, because he doesnt understand it at all.

[Big O]

So let me get this str8. You read his hand that he held only and High card and no pairs and it happened to be less than your Q. So you pound the pot to end with Q high against a calling station and you get the payoff you wanted... I think you were lucky

[kayaker]

See the post above mine from Jedi where he says, "You're lucky that you have an extremely passive opponent who will call you down with Jack high."

There's no way I'd have been in that hand w/ J high, even with the ISD. And I would venture that in almost all instances, very few, if any, of the others here at 2+2 would have been in there with that crap, either. You got lucky in that your opponent was willing to play garbage all the way to the river.

[Daann]

People are always looking for reasons to call, and at these stakes, you aren't going to get rid of them by fancy play. Just get them to pay you off when you have something.

[Leo Bello]

Low-limits... read hands... first you have to learn how to separate the good players from the bad ones. Bad ones, unpredictable. Good players, unpredictable.
So, what is left to read, medium players.

[LondonBroil]

"HE CALLED ME WITH JACK HIGH!"

[Atropos]

"HE CALLED ME WITH JACK HIGH!"

What exactly do you want to tell me with these words? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[LondonBroil]

Your smirk makes me think you know what I'm talking about, but if you don't, it was on an episode of the WSOP. I think it was a LHE event and there was a guy on it named Ellis Powers who got an opponent to call him with Queen high (which Ellis thought was Jack high). He kept yelling "He called me with Jack high!" throughout the rest of the show. Very amusing episode.

[coltrane]

the reason it was a bad play is because it was negative-EV.....your logic is that you put him on top pair and thought he'd fold it if you fired a big second and third barrel....and the point is that he didn't have top pair but called you down anyway - so both your reads were wrong....now, the amount of times people will call you down with a worse hand than Q-high vs. fold on earlier streets or call you down with a better hand is very few and far between.....it happened this time, that doesn't mean the play was good.....

[r3vbr]

No offense but I think this was a terrible play. If you were to repeat this over and over a thousand times, you'd certainly go broke.
I'm pretty sure you don't make a good average hourly rate, and if you do, it's not long-term (3 or more months) to be considered a consistent winner.