A river value bet that would have been thinner than kate moss

I really wanted to bet this river, but the way UTG+1 played, could he have anything but a flush draw? Since I had played the hand so aggressively up to that point, I thought there was no way I wasn't going to get check raised by a six (unlikely) or a flush (very likely). Weak tight, or rational?


Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

[Michael Davis]

This value bet isn't that thin.

-Michael

[daveymck]

It may be weak tight but I check this as well, UTG+2 hasnt got a flush but I suspect has 2 pair.

UTG+1 has cold called everything thrown at him and I think more likely has the flush.

I cant see you winning this or not getting check raised.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
the way UTG+1 played, could he have anything but a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. T9, T8, T7, 7hxh, 8hxh, TT, A9, A8, A7, K9, K8 (I'll give him credit for folding K7 from UTG except-) K7s, TQ, basically any Tx where x is also an overcard to the flop, Q9, Q8, Qdjx, JdQx. There are loads more as well that he could have which I can't spend all day at work listing, as well as loads of random hands.

Frankly, I'm much more worried about UTG+2 than I am about UTG+1. I still bet this river though (with my eyes closed, and watch in amazement as they call and I win).

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I had played the hand so aggressively up to that point, I thought there was no way I wasn't going to get check raised by a six (unlikely) or a flush (very likely).

[/ QUOTE ]

I flush might checkraise but a 6 won't because the river completes the flush. A 6 is much more likely just to bet and call a raise.

I don't think it's a thin or waifish or undernourished value bet.

[jediael]

Do not bet here.

Seriously guys, what do you think are the chances that someone will call here with a *worse* hand?
Very very low.

On the other hand, the chances of a check-raise given that our hero is beaten are quite high given the action on previous rounds.

Additionally, the chances that our hero is still ahead at the river arent too great to justify value betting here.

[Michael Davis]

"Seriously guys, what do you think are the chances that someone will call here with a *worse* hand?
Very very low.

On the other hand, the chances of a check-raise given that our hero is beaten are quite high given the action on previous rounds."

The chance of a checkraise isn't all that high. Most people bet out when they hit a hand on boards like this, for (legitimate) fear that it will get checked through. If you are checkraising people on this board, you are making a mistake, because most players will check KK down here.

People call with any pair here all the time.

-Michael

Well not to be results oriented, but:

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 has 6d Qd (flush, queen high).
UTG+2 has 9d Jd (flush, jack high).
Hero has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 15.25 BB. </font>


They were both trying to check raise me. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

They way it played out, I really felt that I was beat here on the river. But value betting the river is something I need to work on, even though I am getting much better at it.

[Michael Davis]

You can easily fold to a checkraise here. That makes betting the river all the more enticing.

-Michael

[Bob T.]

I think a river bet here would be standard.

[Bob T.]

A double checkraise is even easier to fold to.