Final Table Hand at the Legends of Poker WPT Main Event

[Bolivia]

I've got a question about a hand that recently happened at the Legends of Poker main event final table.

So I go into the third day of the main event feeling confident with the 8th largest stack of 63 remaining. I played like a little demon the 2nd day, showing 3 or 4 hands throughout the day (busting 2 players) so my table image among the remaining 3rd day players who had the chance to play with me is exceptional.. During the 2nd day I ran my stack from 29k in chips to over 230k as a result of the combination of catching a few hands and stealing like a Bolivian. Throughout the 2nd day my buddy JC Tran keeps sending me hourly text messages stating "I will kill you if you bluff!!!". I proceed to pass my phone around to players at the table showing them the text messages as I steal their pots (no joke...lol). Thanks JC!

Unfortunately early into the 3rd day I run into a couple of hands forcing me to play a short stack throughout the remainder of the tournament (from around 24 remaining spots down). Playing this way is in general pretty easy cuz you don't have many decisions to make (since you usually have one move), but frustating all the same because you rely on luck, timing, and necessary double up or two if you are ever to regain control of the table.

Well, I manage to slide into the final table with about 150k in chips. With 4 of the remaining line up being Paul Phillips, Doyle Brunson, Lee Watkinson, and Joe Awada, I wish I had more final table time to study and learn from these players. Anyway, the following hand comes down and I want to know how many of you would've played the hand.

We are Eight Handed.

Blinds: 8,000/16,000 - 2,000 antes (so 40k dead money in the pot).

Me: SB 150,000 in chips
Tom Lee: BB 200,000 in chips

Folded to me in SB I have K10o.

Tom Lee ranks among the tightest players I've ever played with (watched him play about 3 or 4 hands from about 20 players down to final table). Tom has highest fold potential of any of the remaining eight players. Like I said before, I havent played many hands in the third day (due to circumstance) so my image ain't so bad either.

What should i do???

If you don't know the results already I will post them later.

p.s.....I have to say, Joe Awada is the nuts, one of the best poker players I've ever played with.

[Boris]

I don't know the results.

I hate to steal against the squeezers with a real trouble hand like k-10. the reason being that if you are call there is a very good chance of being dominated. In this situation I prefer to steal with the suited connectors, or Q-5. At least if you get called you will have two live cards.
Against a looser player the k-10 maybe has decent high card equity. But not against the tighty.

[Roman]

the pay structure and size of other stacks is EXTREMELY important when making this decision. However, if he is as tight as you say he is, this is a great opportunity to add a ton of chips to your stack, so a push with any 2 is prolly right.

[Bolivia]

66k for 8th, 88k for 7th, 99k for 6th etc...., shortest stack is me after that Tom Lee with about 200k, Paul Phillips withabout 300k, then remaining have substantial (average at the time being about 1M)

[betgo]

I push, and I don't care how tight the opponent is. If it is a coin flip, you don't care if he calls or not. There is less than a 10% chance he has a hand which dominates yours (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, KQ, KJ). If he has one of those hands, he is going to call whether he is a loose or tight player. If you run in to a hand like that, you lose on average 70K chips, but this is more than made up for by the blinds you take. If you had a weaker hand, how tight he plays would be a significant factor. I am sorry if you busted out on this hand, but you have to play something this strong from the SB.

[Instinct]

I would push here.
With the size of his stack and the read you have you are likely to win outright at least 80% of time.

[Bolivia]

I figure there is too much in dead pesos in the pot (40k) and the player is gonna fold way too many hands for me not to take advantage of the opportunity. I push in, and Tom Lee wakes up with AKo in the BB. We both flop a K, I don't improve and I'm toast. I suck.

JC Tran (yes another vietnamese tournament player!! however, this kid's got serious 4 alarm fire breathing game) tells me he thinks a call is ok in this situation. Tells me I have enough chips to last a couple rounds, and given that it is the tightest player at the table and short stacked Tom Lee won't raise preflop unless he really has a hand, in which case my hand is beat and I can safely fold. Otherwise (unless Tom Lee flops strong) I should be able to outplay the player if we both see a flop.

Any thoughts??

[Punker]

If he is as tight as you say, why not make a minimum raise? If he folds, great. If he moves in, you fold. If he calls, you can plan to move in on any flop and then it'll just be a question of if he managed to hit. Oddly, a minimum raise might look even more strong to him than an all in push.

[Bernas]

First of all, congratulations on making it that far. I was in the main event at the Bike and it was my first experience playing with such a great class of players.

Second, Anybody who is answering this question like it was a internet game or a local card room game has got to imagine a whole different scenario. We are talking World Poker Tour with a Million dollars on the line.

After reading your post I think a 2.5 x the big blind raise might be ok here. You say he is really conservative so I can't see him calling this unless he has a hand.

[SossMan]

with 9x and antes, I'm pushing here just about every time. I would prefer to not be called, but KT is too strong a hand to play any differently. He woke up with a hand, and that sucks, but you simply have to push here.

[Bernas]

Hi Sossman,

Normally I would say push here too but if this guy is folding as much as he says he is I don't see why a small raise here isn't ok. 2.5X the blind still leaves him with over 100K in chips and he will have 6 chances to double that up before the next Big Blind.

Is this a no brainer push for you or this a close decision?

[bobby rooney]

I would say it's a bit of a no brainer because pushing gives you the highest chances of winning the pot. If you push, AKo is one of maybe ten hands he's going to call with. It was unlucky that he ran into that, but that's poker. If he makes a weak raise, he is inviting his opponent to either make a move at the pot preflop or to call with hands that he would prefer to be folded like ATo or KJo, Axs and all the smallish pairs. Since we know the player is fairly tight, he will fold most of the time, the times he calls we will still have a chance as even a dominated hand has a shot.

[SossMan]

I don't really want to be called here, since just about any flop will be hard to play (except a monster). I can't imagine that the guy is so tight that he will fold to a SB open raise of 2.5x when he is getting 3:1 on his call (with the antes).
However, at this stage in the tourney, with 2 other short stacks, he will probably not put his life on the line w/ out a pretty good hand if we go all in. My guess is that he would have to have 99-AA, AK, maybe AQ or AJs to call here.

That represents about 10-15% of the potential hands (I'm guessing, I could be off here, but it should be close to that) So the folding equity should be 85-90%. When called, you are probably on average a 2:1 dog vs. the range of hands that would call.

I don't think your folding equity would be nearly as high with a 2.5x raise. Anything bigger, and you are darn near PC'd anyway.

A fold would be pretty weak tight.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise (unless Tom Lee flops strong) I should be able to outplay the player if we both see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that? You have a short stack and no position.

[cferejohn]

Haven't read the rest yet, but I'm pushing this 10 times out of 10 pretty much regardless of my read of the BB. I probably have the best hand. I'm value betting.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the results.

I hate to steal against the squeezers with a real trouble hand like k-10. the reason being that if you are call there is a very good chance of being dominated. In this situation I prefer to steal with the suited connectors, or Q-5. At least if you get called you will have two live cards.
Against a looser player the k-10 maybe has decent high card equity. But not against the tighty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but against the tighty you win the pot, which amount to a quarter of your stack, a vast majority of the time...

[betgo]

I don't understand the argument that although pushing is right in a smaller tournament, you should try something fancier in a major tournament against a known professional.

You have a hand that plays well alllin, but you have no advantages for seeing the flop. You have a terrible hand to flop something big, you don't have position, you don't have chips, and you are probably playing a stronger player.

If you are inexperienced at the final table of a major tournament, it seems like you should simplify things by going allin when possible.