nut flush river decision

[Chris Daddy Cool]

15/30 party

loose aggressive table. i'm not sure if anybody's a total moron, but people will play their strong hands strongly, that's pretty much my only real read.

UTG raises. coldcall by MP1. coldcall by MP2. I 3-bet with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif CO coldcalls 3-bets. Button coldcalls the 3 bets. Blinds fold. utg calls. MP1 calls. MP2 caps (close to all in) I call. CO calls. Button calls. 6 players to the flop for 25.5 sb.

flop: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets. MP1 calls. MP2 calls (all in). I raise. CO 3-bets. Button calls 3-bets cold again. UTG caps. MP1 folds. I call. CO calls. Button calls. 6 players to the turn (1 all in) for 43.5 sb -> 22 bb.

turn: 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG bets. MP1 calls. I call. CO calls. Button calls.
6 to the river (1 all in) for 27 bb.

River: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG bets. MP1 raises. 30-2 action to me.

Who calls? Who raises? Who folds?

[ncboiler]

I vote raise. Nothing else crosses my mind

[Nate tha' Great]

You really have only one choice.

Hint. It isn't fold.

Hint. It isn't raise.

[sublime]

Chris-

I call, and I think he action is messed up somewhere.

Mp1

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he action is messed up somewhere

[/ QUOTE ]

probably, i'm doing all this from faulty memory

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Ok, so I called.

then...

CO 3-bets. Button folds. UTG caps. MP1 calls. My action again.

Who calls?
Who folds?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so I called.

then...

CO 3-bets. Button folds. UTG caps. MP1 calls. My action again.

Who calls?
Who folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold and I don't think it's that close.

[cnfuzzd]

The key here is what the river does for everyones hands. It gives you the nut flush, and makes lots of smaller flushes possible. However, anyone with a set now has a full house, making you a very expensive second best. And anyone with a set in this position is now going to understand that any high spade is likely to think there hand is good. So, you have a fairly good hand in a position where it is highly exploitable> To me, this means i need to find a way to extract the most "padding" to add value to the pot to cover the times where i lose in this position. Calling is clearly the best way to do this. Raising here is likely to push out any high spade, or anyone who made their flush on the flop, whereas smooth calling the MP raise is likely to pick up at least one other person. The one sticking point is that UTG is somewhat likely to 3bet, meaning you are probably going to put at least 3 bets in on this street anyway, so one might as well raise anyway. I dont , however, think that this is true in this situation. By calling, you are going to encourage others to call, adding even more value to the pot here to cover the times you do run into a boat.
Also, if one were three bet here, i cant imagine a single hand that you can beat calling, except maybe the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, if theyre really bold. However, not only will the hands that beat you stay in, they will probably bump it up again. Why push out the hands that you already have beat?
In the end, i do think you ended up either losing to JJ, or taking it from AA, and someone has to have the onsuit K. But, no matter how long i thought about it, i couldnt delineate a good way to put UTG on one or the other, and their are still two people behind me that i dont even know about. Call it is.

I think...

peace

john nickle

[xerostar]

Wait let me get this straight..you fold a nut flush? To a cap? The only hands that could beat you in a boat, which could potentially be the case from a set, or a straight flush (not likely). I still don't see how you could ever fold a nut flush...this hand is just too strong to let go.

[cnfuzzd]

what, something like 96% sure? I dont know if i could make this laydown. Ever. Man, that really scares me, but 40:2 on trying to figure out this monstrosity seems too daunting for me. Of course, thats why im just an addict. Give me time though....

Oh yeah, i call down all the way.

peace

john nickle

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait let me get this straight..you fold a nut flush? To a cap? The only hands that could beat you in a boat, which could potentially be the case from a set, or a straight flush (not likely). I still don't see how you could ever fold a nut flush...this hand is just too strong to let go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Three different players have shown aggression on the river. All of these players are plenty aware that the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif makes the nut flush. Frankly I'm not sure that he'd have a call even if Mike Sexton appeared in a leotard on the screen, waved his magic wand, doubled the pot, and declared that both first and second place would be paid.

[nepenthe]

Call the river and fold if it's 2 more back to you. When players show this much aggression with an obvious 4-flush on board, a FH is definitely out there.

[Tosh]

Chris, I don't think its a difficult choice. You can't really fold and raising seems rather silly. So you call.

When its back to you capped, turbo muck.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Frankly I'm not sure that he'd have a call even if Mike Sexton appeared in a leotard on the screen, waved his magic wand

[/ QUOTE ]

who's mike sexton?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

once it came back capped to me, I agonized a little while, then realized a call would just be wasting $60, and I folded.

UTG had JJ for the fullhouse. Button had 99 for a smaller fullhouse and the other idiot had K /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the second nut flush.

For those who care, how much closer would a call be if it came back to me just one more bet (3-bets) rather than two bets capped?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Frankly I'm not sure that he'd have a call even if Mike Sexton appeared in a leotard on the screen, waved his magic wand

[/ QUOTE ]

who's mike sexton?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a state senator from Iowa.

http://www.legis.state.ia.us/GA/78GA/Senate/Members/Mike-Sexton.html