How good are you ?

Determining how good a hold'em player you are is difficult. I have played Paradise Poker for a year at various levels up to 10-20 but my records show I am a small loser. This of course indicates that my game is not as good as that of my opponents. What I can't decide is whether this is because the games are too tight (with 2-3 players seeing the flop) or whether I am really a mediocre player. Can I have your thoughts on this ?

Actually, playing in bad games will almost assure that you will not win unless you are a real expert. Even then the rake is likely to eat up most or all of your earn. Asking the question of how good you are usually is indicative of being not good enough to beat the games. I am not saying you are not good enough, I have no way of knowing that, being a small loser over a long period indicates that you are better then many other players but not quite good enough to actually win post-rake money. If you are losing say $2hr, but pay an average of $12 hr in rake then you are beating other players out of $10hr, so obviously you would be playing well above average. The key here is to just keep improving your game- how good you become will be mostly determined by how much effort you are willing to put into poker.

If the games are honest, your results unfortunately are strong evidence that you are not an excellent player. Excellent players beat all but the very toughest games.

What? I didn't know there was a "good" beyond game selection, and even game creation if need be.


I know I could find a game I would surely lose in quite easily. So what?


Apparently you're not good enough to find a game you can beat.


El-Roi

As a blackjack player who has recently just started playing

poker it is very difficult to know how good you are.

With BJ we know (minus any mistakes, which are often negated

by bonus coupons) how much we should win per 100 hands against a certain game.

With poker we don`t know, especially as we move up in level.

For instance last week I had a very bad poker session where

I was a big favorite many times yet lost.

(bad swings happen all the time in BJ so its no big deal)

The point is when I raise my pocket Aces against the big blind

who calls with 6-4 offsuit I am pretty sure I am putting my

money into a very positive situation

(you can guess that the flop was 4-4-5 ;-)


I often see it quoted that peoples results, short-medium term

dictate peoples advice on how good a player they are.


I have no idea how good I am except that I am winning, playing better starting hands than most at the table and have a pretty good idea when I am beat.

Which probably means I can beat a few low-limit games but would struggle against better players (and the rake)

I wish there were an easier way to find out how good you are

apart from sitting in a tough game and getting crushed.


D.

Dear Simon,

David points out the key to answering your question. Good players win, and they are going to have similar winning rates against players at a similar level of skill no matter where they play.I don't consider myself an excellent player, but I know that I am a good player, because for the last last four years I have recorded my monies won or lost for every session that I have played.As I said I have played an average of 40 hours a week and been a consistent winner for all four years. Since only a small percent of Casino players are long term winners (For over a year's period for example) I was interested to see what would happen when I went to visit San Francisco. Playing at Artichoke Joe's and the Oaks for a week, demonstrated that my winnings were almost identical to when I play at my home casino. During that time I also vacationed Las Vegas several times and played Belagio's and the Mirage usually 8 hours a day. And once again I found that my average winnings were close to my average home game winnings. I do win a little more at home since I have a better read on my opponents. Therefor when I decided to play on line at Paradise my presumption was that I would have the same winning ratio that I have in live games. I found that to my surprise my winning ratio was somewhat lower. I still was winning but not a much as I had anticipated per hand. As you know because of the rapidity of the hands, they may play up to 90 hands an hour. There were also times when I just didn't feel comfortable with the games. When I am out of a hand I keep a note pad and monitor the hands played by my opponents.(which is about 90% of the time) I also kept giant rolodex cards on the different players and monitored their playing patterns and their winnings. I noticed that some players winnings simply defied the anticipated mathematical winning probabilities.

Any one can have a good run of cards but certain players that consistently played at the lower end of the starting hand requirements, and continue with hands post flop that are realy too weak to play ,and yet are long term winners over months at a time it is worrrysome.

I have had too different players tell me that they "wharehouse" at Paradise. To wharehouse is to play as two or three different players at the same table. For example one girl told me that when it was time to up grade her computer she simply kept her one persona on aol on her phone line, lets call her aol paradise name gypsie rose .Then when she got her new computer she had it hooked up to her cable TV companies line.(it only cost her an extra $26 dollars a month to have one computer going to Paradise from aol on her phone line and another coming from a different sight through her cabel company.

She plays the second line as a different persona than Gypsie Rose lets say it is Big John,( she didn't tell me the real names were only that they sound quite disimilar). It is her feeling that by playing two hands simultaniously at the same table gives her an advantage in the game. She also said that she had started doing it whem a male friend showed her his set up at which he was doing the same thing. She said that she felt that she had been much more sucessful since she started playing in the game as two players. As a matter of fact she said that she is planning to get a second phone line so that she can keep a second phone line open with her friend. It is their feeling that if the two of them play as four or five different players at the same table it gives them an even greater advantage over the players that are only playing as one player or two players. It is their opinion that by knowing 4 or 5 starting hands and their positions in the hands, and by making some small adjustments in their raises (never ones that are too far out of line to raise suspision)that it gives them an even greater advantage. So my questions to you are are you consistantly winning when you play in live games? And when you play ar Paradise are you restricting your game by only playing one player at your table?


Sincerely yours,


Octavian

One thing I have noticed over the years is that I judge a player but what they play and how they play it...never chip stacks. Believe me I know folks who have $500 swings in 3/6 and they play 3-5 times a week and suck as players. However they feel they are good players cuz they win alot in a session and it was bad luck when they lose.

I end every session (and spend most of the next day) thinking over the hands I played/how I played them and any other mistakes...like leaving becuase it wasn't a good game.

The single most important thing to any player who can get past hand selection is game selection...I don't care how great a player you are if there are only 2/3 out of 9 seeing every flop it is tough to make money over the long haul. Radom luck alone could keep you down a bit. I look for game that are gonna pay me to play...cuz there will be another game soon enough if this one isn't good. I know this fact is important because my best bud and I play like mirror images and in the same places but the big difference is he is willing to play in marginal to bad games while I only put my money on the table if I can win enough to make it worthwhile.

Post some hand so we can look at your play and good luck in the future.

Lance

As I've never had more than one account, I'm wondering how these people cash out. Do they put the extra accounts under friends names? What address do they use?

Thanks for all the responses. I guess what you are telling me is that the PP games are tough to beat and that I have to become a very good player to emerge a long term winner on PP. Unfortunately, I don't have the option of playing limit HE in a casino as only Pot Limit is spread here in the UK so my game selection is limited to that offered by PP. I have not noted any malpractices online but I find it surprising how often poor hands are played with a successful outcome by opponents.

Straight away but I also suspected a 5.(or a small overpair)

When you are playing players who play any hand it can be somewhat

difficult to put them on something

I checked the flop to see if he bet, then I re-raised him which he called.

(if he would have re-raised I would have probably dropped)

If he had the 5 I was still ahead.

Do you think I should drop Aces with this flop to any bet?


D.

With all due respect to the posters above, take their advice with a grain of salt unless they've played on Paradise or know the typical 10/20 game conditions. Can a fairly aggressive game with less than three players (blinds included) on average seeing the flop be beaten? I have my doubts. You'll need to be best or second best player in the game. Do people collude? I would imagine some do. I see people colluding in Yahoo spades games all the time and there's not even any money involved. If you're close to breaking even over an appreciable amount of time in the Paradise 10/20 games, you're probably good enough to be at least a slight winner in an LA 9/18 game or a Las Vegas 6/12.

Dear Bullhead,

You ask a good question. I haven't asked them that specific question. My presumption is that they pay one account on their credit card and pay their other accounts by cashiers checks. Then they would need to have their cash outs sent to their home address for their credit card. And their second or third accounts sent to second or third parties or to po boxes.


Most sincerely


Octavian