ATo

[Smokey98]

Is this a good fold?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero folds.

Turn: (5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (8 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP3 has 6c 2c (two pair, fours and twos).
CO has 9s Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: CO wins 10 BB. </font>

[Barry]

You are getting 10:1 and your chances of hitting your overcards are about 7:1. However, with a paired board they might be no good anyway, so if it's a bad fold, it's not very bad.

[Bob T.]

Is this a good fold?


You know everyone's cards. The play was pretty straight forward. If you don't know, then it is good excercise for you to work out.

[Smokey98]

No bob, I can't say that I do. I mean I can "guess", but I'm not SURE what they have.

[spamuell]

No bob, I can't say that I do. I mean I can "guess", but I'm not SURE what they have.

Well, you are, because you have the results. But yeah they won't always have these hands, I think this is a pretty results orientated view. But closing the flop action getting 10:1 to hit my overcards with good position relative to the flop raiser, I call here.

[daveymck]

Call the flop if the turn doesnt help you then you can fold the turn.

A flop like this will generally have missed everyone except maybe the bb.

[Smokey98]

[ QUOTE ]
A flop like this will generally have missed everyone except maybe the bb.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly, if he's holding a 4 then I'm pretty much drawing dead.

[Bob T.]

Ok, there are two ways that you can look at this.

First, there are 9sbs in the pot. It will cost you one to see the turn. Given the cards on the board, 442, your opponents hands Q9s, 62c, you have 6 outs to lead on the turn. There are 43 unknown cards. So you are getting 9 to 1 to call, and you are 37 to 6 to be ahead after the turn, or just over 6 to 1. So you want to play, if you are facing a pair smaller than tens. There are other possibilities. Your opponent could have a pocket pair bigger than fours, but not that big, because he didn't reraise preflop. In that case, you are still probably a 6-1 underdog to be ahead on the turn. You still want to play.

Your opponent could have A3, A5, or 53s, 63s or some other combination where he has a straight draw, and he is semibluffing the flop. In these cases, he is about a 6-1 underdog to be behind after the turn. In all of these cases you want to play.

Finally, your opponent could have a four, or pocket twos. In these cases you are way behind, and will win less than 1% of the time.

What you need to do, is to guess the approximate percentage of time that he will hold each of these hands. I think that it is unlikely that he holds a four or pocket twos, because he bet out, instead of checkraising, and I think that it would be more likely that he holds a pair or semibluffing hand, and that you should call or raise here. (That is a whole different discussion, but I would probably call.)

Now, the queen comes on the turn, how many outs do you have in the situation that existed? 3, if you were facing a bet then, you would need a lot bigger pot to continue than there would have been, so you would fold at that point.

There is a second way of doing this, you could use a poker calculater, there are a bunch of them out there, but here is the results from twodimes.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=498260
pokenum -h qs 9s - as th - 6c 2c -- 4s 4c 2d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 4s 4c 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 9s 212 23.48 687 76.08 4 0.44 0.236
As Th 230 25.47 669 74.09 4 0.44 0.256
6c 2c 457 50.61 442 48.95 4 0.44 0.508

As you can see, you will win about 1/4th of the time. after the flop. Given that you were getting 9-1 odds on the flop bet, and closing the action, do you think you should have folded, or called to see what would happen?

After you figure out what would happen with the cards as they lay, change them around a little bit, and figure out what else could have happened. How does it affect your hand if you play against pocket tens? Pocket Jacks? A2? Etc. Then you know whether or not you should play, based on what your opponent is holding, and eventually, when you can make good guesses about what they are holding, you can make good decisions as to whether or not to continue.

I could have just said that you probably should have called, but it is the old 'Give a man a fish, and he eats for a day. Teach him to fish, and you piss off his wife for years.' or something like that /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Smokey98]

Bob I think you are giving WAY too much credit to these players on 1/2. That may be the way someone that knows the game semi-well plays, but I can't say that I've seen enough to say that most of the players on 1/2 play like this. They just call and raise with Ax and sometimes with Kx.

[Bob T.]

Bob I think you are giving WAY too much credit to these players on 1/2. That may be the way someone that knows the game semi-well plays, but I can't say that I've seen enough to say that most of the players on 1/2 play like this. They just call and raise with Ax and sometimes with Kx.



Which makes it even a better idea to call the flop on this hand. It also is why there is seperate microlimit and small stakes forums.

I wasn't trying to read the hands, I was just playing the hands as if I could see them, and figuring out the odds from that. Its easier to figure out the odds on concrete hands, than on a range of hands, but if you can do the concrete examples, then you can extrapolate to the possibilities.

good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[TheHip41]

I don't know if it's good or not, but I fold here.