NFL this weekend

[toby]

Titans at Dolphins by 3 - will cover the spread.
Ravens at Browns by 3 - will also cover the spread.

Anyone of a different opinion?

[thomastem]

Dolphins +3 is my pick of the week.

[craig r]

taking two road favorites is not very profitable. i am staying away from BAL/CLE completely right now, and found a nice middle on TEN/MIA game.

[jwvdcw]

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taking two road favorites is not very profitable. i am staying away from BAL/CLE completely right now, and found a nice middle on TEN/MIA game.

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exactly what I was gonna post.

Road favorites by 3 pts or less are historically 'trap' games.

[CarlSpackler]

I like the Ravens to win by a TD. Cleveland has done nothing this offseason to shore up their defense, which Lewis ran wild on in both games last year. Adding Garcia and Winslow was nice, but the Browns didn't do nearly enough to help their o-line which is horrendous. The way to attack Baltimore's dominating defense is with the deep ball, and Garcia doesn't have the strong arm or the line to give him time to do so. I've also read the Garica hasn't developed the chemistry he'd like with his receivers. I expect the Ravens to grind it out on the ground and not to take too many chances with young QB Boller. In fact, the only reason this line isn't up around -7 is because Boller is still green and unproven. As long as he doesn't melt down the Ravens should be fine.

[tolbiny]

*browns fan disclaimer*

If it were a 7 point spread i would be betting fairly heavily on hte browns to cover. Several key points you missed.

the Browns didn't do nearly enough to help their o-line which is horrendous

The Browns added one of the best blocking fullbacks in the league, this will help both their passing and rushing games. Cleveland has not had a fullback on their roster in 3 years. Also the browns added depth at offensive line and have avoided injurys. Last year i beleive they used 10 or 11 different combinations to start at o-line, it didn't allow them to "gel" at all. In general i think their o line is a marked (though not drastic) improvment on their team.

Lewis did run all over our D last year, but he is missing his center and Ogden is questionable for the game. If he can't play that will hurt his chances. Also if Davis can't get his team fired up for a guy who talked mad sh*t and then ran for 500 yards against them last year, he should be fired as soon as the last whistle blows.
Dont forget this is at home for the browns against the team the fans hate the most in what should be a revenge game for their D.
I personally think the line is set just about perfectly at -3 for the ravens... i dont think its a good bet either way.

[jwvdcw]

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I like the Ravens to win by a TD. Cleveland has done nothing this offseason to shore up their defense, which Lewis ran wild on in both games last year. Adding Garcia and Winslow was nice, but the Browns didn't do nearly enough to help their o-line which is horrendous. The way to attack Baltimore's dominating defense is with the deep ball, and Garcia doesn't have the strong arm or the line to give him time to do so. I've also read the Garica hasn't developed the chemistry he'd like with his receivers. I expect the Ravens to grind it out on the ground and not to take too many chances with young QB Boller. In fact, the only reason this line isn't up around -7 is because Boller is still green and unproven. As long as he doesn't melt down the Ravens should be fine.

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true, but if you don't think that this defense has been using Lewis' performances last year(over 500 yards rushing against them in only 2 games!) as motivation all offseason you're crazy. They've had this game circled all offseason.

[jwvdcw]

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i dont think its a good bet either way.

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my thoughts exactly(I'm a Ravens and Redskins fan btw).

[CarlSpackler]

You make a good point about the addition of FB Smith, as he's arguably the best run-blocking fullback in the league. As far as which team is more motivated, that's something which is important to take into account during the season, but in Week 1 you can throw motivation/revenge out the window as every team is fired up to play. In addition, look how many rushing yards the Browns gave up to Lewis the 2nd game last year, when they should have been motivated after the first debacle. I also think the pressure on Cleveland to beat the team owned by the evil Modell cancels out much of their home field advantage here. Frankly, if Lewis rips off a couple of big runs early, I believe the Browns' defenders (and the fans) will lose confidence and start thinking 'here we go again.' I think the Ravens will win the turnover battle, which will be key to winning this game (as it is in most games). I'm not saying this is the biggest play of the week (I like the Jets -4 over Cincy), but I like putting a small play on Baltimore here. Fwiw, I'm a redskins fan.

[tolbiny]

If the ravens had a healthy o-line i would be willing to put a healthy wager on them. Since they dont i am doublfull- especially with boller at Q.

I think the Ravens will win the turnover battle, which will be key to winning this game

i think the turnover battle should be even. Neither side has a runningback known for fumbling, yes the ravens have a much better d, but the browns have a much more experienced Q who is known for making the good decisions. I think you are looking at a wash on the turnovers in this game. 2 for each team.
I'm not saying the browns are covering, i just think its a game i would stay away from. Unless of course the betting gets heavy and the line moves to -5 for the ravens. Then i will but 1 unit on the browns.