mrbaseball
09-08-2004, 05:06 PM
I figured I would inagurate the new board with a baseball post since I'm sure no one else will /images/graemlins/smile.gif I will never understand the allure of football betting myself. The large vig and the almost perfect lines make it unbeatable in my mind but people flock to it for some reason? I love the game but wouldn't bet on it to save my life other than a few teasers for fun and maybe a small superbowl bet.
Anyway on to serious (ie profitable) issues. Baseball!
The Cubs/Expos line tonight is just goofy. Expos +310 and Expos +150 +1.5 runs are too juicy to pass on. Maddux is pitching well but nobody pitches well enough for this kind of price. Expos aren't all that horrible and in the lower tier of the great gray middle with a .420 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't all that great and in the upper tier of the great gray middle at a .548 winning percentage.
But the Cubs are pressing and the pressure to win is enormous and they are historical choke artists. Montreal is loose as a goose. Plus Expos bullpen has been decent which makes up for some of the starting pitching gap. Once that Cub bullpen gets involved anything goes.
I like both straight and runline here but like the runline the best. When getting the runs the Expos cover 59% of the time and when giving the runs the Cubs only cover 44% of the time and they are paying you +150 to take the 59% chance here!
This is a typical bs line with way too much respect going the Cubs way and absolutely no respect for the Expos. We are getting a nice overlay on this game.
Anyway on to serious (ie profitable) issues. Baseball!
The Cubs/Expos line tonight is just goofy. Expos +310 and Expos +150 +1.5 runs are too juicy to pass on. Maddux is pitching well but nobody pitches well enough for this kind of price. Expos aren't all that horrible and in the lower tier of the great gray middle with a .420 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't all that great and in the upper tier of the great gray middle at a .548 winning percentage.
But the Cubs are pressing and the pressure to win is enormous and they are historical choke artists. Montreal is loose as a goose. Plus Expos bullpen has been decent which makes up for some of the starting pitching gap. Once that Cub bullpen gets involved anything goes.
I like both straight and runline here but like the runline the best. When getting the runs the Expos cover 59% of the time and when giving the runs the Cubs only cover 44% of the time and they are paying you +150 to take the 59% chance here!
This is a typical bs line with way too much respect going the Cubs way and absolutely no respect for the Expos. We are getting a nice overlay on this game.