NFL survivor pool

[ElSapo]

A friend has set up a survivor pool. You pick a team you think will win outright each week, if you lose you're out. The catch is that you can't pick the same team twice. Last year only went five weeks...

Any thoughts on the correct way to look at this? There's a rebuy period this year so it isn't quite as cut and dry.

[ftball0000]

from what I've heard, the best strategy is to pick the team that is your "best bet" and by that I mean... don't worry about "saving" a good team for later on, just keep picking the winners and don't worry about using a bad team until you get to that point

-Ftball

[kdog]

I've been in one of these with 35-40 people for a few years now and only once have I seen it end in less than 12 weeks. Best strategy is to go over the whole schedule checking off 2 or 3 teams for each week. Then go back over the first 4-5 weeks and tentatively make those selections. If you are still alive after that do it again.

What you are trying to avoid is using up all the real easy ones quickly(the double digit home favorites)because if you do there will come a week where you're best selection is some middle of the pack team on the road whereas you could have used them at home as a solid touchdown favorite a few weeks prior and saved something else. You should keep an eye out for go against teams too like Detroit on the road.

[MrDannimal]

This is true early on. Although, there are a couple of caveats.

If you think that a vast majority of the field will pick a given game (for example, if you thought 85% of the field would take the Rams this week), you almost certainly want to pick a different team.

The reason is simple. If you go with the heard, you cannot win. You are either out with the masses, or you're in the same spot (big field). If you pick another team, and the mass pick loses by some fluke, you've just increased your "pot equity" a great deal without proportionate risk (assuming you pick another game with similar chance of winning).

This becomes less of an opportunity as time goes on, and people are forced into smaller "herds" after picking different teams in early weeks. But you can still look for late game opportunites similar to this.

[3for3]

Some other advice:

Avoid all road teams. Look for really bad (Arizona type) teams and take the other team. The advice of avoiding the 'big favorite' is excellent. As an example, say the Eagles are picked by 49 of 50 players. Unless they were a 49-1 or more favorite, you would have equity merely pickin AGAINST them. Of course you would do better to just pick the second favorite, or some other good choice, but it is a good example of why one should stay out of the crowded boat.

Danny

[Easy E]

each come up with some "dogs that have a good chance of winning" each week, so that we can all think about using that for our survivor pools?