I hate semi-bluffing

[ddubois]

This is a 20/2 SNG. I try to never semi-bluff, because as I have said in the past, they always call, but I seemingly had so many outs here, it seemed like this was a reasonable time to do it. Was it?

#Game No : 926556084
***** Hand History for Game 926556084 *****
Table Table 13862 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: gerganator1 ( $1115 )
Seat 3: FatDentist ( $2580 )
Seat 6: lapbgolf ( $625 )
Seat 7: mm315 ( $1340 )
Seat 8: XxUROOK ( $1400 )
Seat 9: P0K3RM4N ( $940 )
Trny:5724877 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to P0K3RM4N [ Qh As ]
lapbgolf folds.
mm315 folds.
XxUROOK calls [50].
P0K3RM4N raises [170].
gerganator1 folds.
FatDentist calls [120].
>You have options at Table 13825 Table!.
XxUROOK will be using his time bank for this hand.
XxUROOK calls [120].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, Tc, Jh ]
FatDentist checks.
XxUROOK bets [125].
P0K3RM4N is all-In.

[ddubois]

FatDentist folds.
XxUROOK calls [645].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
XxUROOK shows [ Ks, Ah ] high card ace.
P0K3RM4N shows [ Qh, As ] high card ace.
P0K3RM4N finished in sixth place.
XxUROOK wins 2075 chips from the main pot with high card ace with king kicker.
P0K3RM4N has left the table.
Game #926560441 starts.

I can't beleive he called my push with AK. The only possible hand I might raise pre-flop that he could beat would be AQ, and he's drawing to 4 outs against 99,TT,JJ,KK,AA,AJ and 5 outs versus QQ, and a chop versus AK.

Do I need to bet in some other patten such that people don't "know I'm on a draw"?

[ilya]

I will open semi-bluff pretty regularly at the $20s, and with decent results...but raising on a semi-bluff rarely works for me.
You do seem to have a mountain of outs here but I think that's a bit of an illusion. The reason is, your opponent is likely to have a hand that kills some/many of your outs, like AJ, AT, KQ, or QJ. All hands that players at the $20s might play the way your opponent did.
You're about even money against a made hand that doesn't kill any of your outs, but you aren't getting any of them to fold since everyone thinks 'draw' when you raise all-in on a board like that. So, if you get called you're at best even money, very possibly a substantial dog -- and you're getting called most of the time. I'd fold here.

[ddubois]

I know what you are saying regarding people assume "all-in is draw", but I don't know how I could bet anything other than all-in, as there is 630 in the pot when it gets to me, 120 to call, and 765 in my stack. Raising to 300 or 400 seems lame for reasons I can't quite articulate. With the board as coordinated as it was, I would push any hand I would play here (tptk, overpair, set are all pushes IMO; because they are all very vulnerable to straight or flush). The only hand I might play slow is a made straight, but even then I might still push to keep flush draws out.

Even looking back at it, I can't see how to play this hand differently. Is not raising a sole limper from the button with AQo 6-handed a solid play? Once I bloated the pot with my pre-flop raise, am I not married to that flop of OESD/2overs? Now that I know what he had I can rationalize that smooth-calling and pushing the turn might get him to fold, but that's awful backasswards-thinking that I'm hesitant to even mention.

[poboy]

I don't see where you have that many outs. All you really have is an open ended straight draw. Since he called your pf raise, you have to give him credit for a decent hand. Given that he limped I wouldn't be at all suprised if he had QK, in which case you have even less outs. I don't think a semi-bluff was a good choice here. I like to semi-bluff at an unraised pot when I really have alot of outs. As in open ended straight flush draw, maybe a flush draw w/ overcards or middle pair and flush draw. Straight draws by themselves just aren't worth it IMO.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
All you really have is an open ended straight draw.... Straight draws by themselves just aren't worth it IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree the overcard outs are tainted (and as it turned out with his holding, there were indeed dead) and should be discounted, but it's absolutely wrong to say they have no value at all. My A outs are good against most overpairs, my Q outs would be good against most TP hands, etc. AsQh is not equivalent to 2sQh here.

[poboy]

Usually that would be the case, but as I said you have to give him credit for some decent hand. Which increases the possibility that your overs are no good. I just can't see him calling with cards that don't eliminate some of your outs, assuming he's a solid player. If there had been no preflop raise and calls than it is a completely different situation. Or if you knew he had really low calling standards.